J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of J.M. Smucker Co. $145, price $117, upside +24.1%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $72.44 – $143.05 · fair‑value band $93.17 – $196.73 · the $116.76 price screens below the $144.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks.
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The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks. It offers coffee, sweet baked goods, pet snacks, frozen handheld products, peanut butter, cat and dog food, fruit and specialty spreads, cookies, frozen sandwiches and snacks, hot beverages, portion control products, toppings and syrups, baking mixes and ingredients, and flour. The company provides its products under the Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Canine Carry Outs, Hostess, 1850, Robin Hood, and Five Roses brands. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, mass merchandisers, supermarket chains, national mass retailers, convenience stores, vending channels, and foodservice distributors and operators. The J. M. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.
Stock analysis
J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F) currently trades at $116.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $144.95, implying the stock looks roughly 19.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $176.71 per share, and 9 of the 14 models we run sit above the $116.76 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $32.65, and 5 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $93.17 (bear) to $196.73 (bull), the price of $116.76 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
J.M. Smucker Co. reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2026 versus $8.0B in FY2022, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$139M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $12.5B · P/E ratio 0.2 · EPS (TTM) $5.84 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin −1.5% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% · Operating margin 18.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 24%, 0L7F screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $93.17Fair Value $144.95Bull $196.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6146 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.3% (2021) → 15.3% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
0.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.6% a year for the price and −2.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 635 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+24.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−1.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)18.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.63× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.25× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $144.95 versus a price of $116.76, about +24% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0L7F?
Our model-based fair value for J.M. Smucker Co. is $144.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $116.76.
What is the quality score of 0L7F?
J.M. Smucker Co. has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $144.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $93.17, optimistic scenario $196.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the J.M. Smucker Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $144.95, about +24% upside versus a price of $116.76 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $93.17, optimistic scenario $196.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
J.M. Smucker Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does J.M. Smucker Co. pay a dividend?
J.M. Smucker Co. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.77% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, J.M. Smucker Co. would have to grow free cash flow by +5.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0L7F use?
Our models discount J.M. Smucker Co. at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For J.M. Smucker Co. that is +5.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at J.M. Smucker Co. grew +2.5 % a year. The price currently implies +5.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into J.M. Smucker Co. (+5.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.01 %: that much free cash flow J.M. Smucker Co. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For J.M. Smucker Co. it is $144.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $116.76. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is J.M. Smucker Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0L7F trades below its calculated fair value: price $116.76, fair value $144.95, a gap of about +24% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0L7F?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($116.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($144.95). For J.M. Smucker Co. the two are $28.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is J.M. Smucker Co. worth?
The market values J.M. Smucker Co. at about $12.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $116.76; our models calculate a fair value of $144.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0L7F?
Our models span a range for J.M. Smucker Co.: cautious scenario $93.17, base $144.95, optimistic $196.73 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $116.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0L7F?
J.M. Smucker Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $144.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
Balance-sheet figures for J.M. Smucker Co. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.4%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0L7F from its 52-week high?
J.M. Smucker Co. trades at $116.76, about 13% below its 52-week high of $134.61 and 33% above the low of $88.07 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $144.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to J.M. Smucker Co.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is J.M. Smucker Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $116.76, calculated fair value $144.95 (+24%), Quality Score 58/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0L7F calculated?
We run J.M. Smucker Co. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $144.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. J.M. Smucker Co. currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $116.76. Our model-based fair value is $144.95, about +24% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with J.M. Smucker Co. right now?
Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($93.17 to $196.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of J.M. Smucker Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
The market capitalisation of J.M. Smucker Co. is $12.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
Earnings per share at J.M. Smucker Co. are $5.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
The dividend yield of J.M. Smucker Co. is 3.8% (payout 75.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
The net margin of J.M. Smucker Co. is −1.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
The return on equity (ROE) of J.M. Smucker Co. is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of J.M. Smucker Co. is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
The operating margin of J.M. Smucker Co. is 18.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
Revenue at J.M. Smucker Co. is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F)?
Earnings per share at J.M. Smucker Co. are growing −2.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does J.M. Smucker Co. (0L7F) carry?
The net debt of J.M. Smucker Co. is $7.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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