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Orell Füssli AG (0QME) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Orell Füssli AG £202, price £140, upside +44.7%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Orell Füssli AG
0QME · LSEUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value £201.82 · Undervalued (+44.7%)
✓Quality 72/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +4.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.2% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £68.91 – £171.44 · fair‑value band £151.37 – £252.28 · the £139.50 price screens below the £201.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Orell Füssli AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in security printing and technology, book retailing, and publishing business in Switzerland, Germany, Rest of Europe and Africa, North and South America, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Security Printing, Industrial Systems, Book Retailing, and Other Business Areas segments.
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Orell Füssli AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in security printing and technology, book retailing, and publishing business in Switzerland, Germany, Rest of Europe and Africa, North and South America, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Security Printing, Industrial Systems, Book Retailing, and Other Business Areas segments. The company produces and markets banknotes, security documents, identity cards, and other documents, as well as consulting services or contracts for the development of designs or security elements; develops, produces, installs, sells, and distributes after sales service equipment for the serialization of banknotes and security documents; and implements control and inspection systems, as well as provides software solutions for tracking security documents; and publishes children's, learning, and legal media books. It also sells books and related products in through outlets in German-speaking Switzerland, as well as through online shop. In addition, the company offers logistics and other services for libraries and the corporate sector. The company was formerly known as Orell Füssli Holding AG. Orell Füssli AG was founded in 1519 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Orell Füssli AG (0QME) currently trades at £139.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £201.82, implying the stock looks roughly 30.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of £221.86 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the £139.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £36.57, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £151.37 (bear) to £252.28 (bull), the price of £139.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Orell Füssli AG reported revenue of £273M in FY2025 versus £210M in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was £19.0M in FY2025, compounding +19.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £302M · P/E ratio 0.3 · P/S ratio 0.02 · EPS (TTM) £4.79 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 45%, 0QME screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £151.37
Fair Value £201.82
Bull £252.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
£177.89
£219.58
£289.54
82
Growth DCF
£182.33
£221.86
£283.10
80
Owner Earnings
£109.54
£130.48
£165.62
78
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
£177.89
£219.58
£289.54
82
Owner Earnings
£109.54
£130.48
£165.62
78
5Y Revenue Exit
£178.14
£238.58
£326.36
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
£205.99
£286.74
£393.66
76
5Y P/E Exit
£173.62
£230.76
£299.19
72
10Y Revenue Exit
£173.86
£215.72
£260.25
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
£192.61
£242.91
£296.30
70
10Y P/E Exit
£174.65
£211.30
£245.70
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
£65.35
£79.88
£89.86
67
EPV
£144.28
£158.42
£170.21
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
£33.92
£36.57
£40.51
69
DDM Multi-Stage
£33.92
£40.38
£48.72
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
£151.37
£201.82
£252.28
63
P/S Multiple
£122.54
£163.38
£204.23
58
P/B Multiple
£122.54
£163.38
£204.23
55
EV/EBIT
£250.82
£320.90
£390.98
66
EV/EBITDA
£259.25
£332.14
£405.04
67
EV/Revenue
£190.63
£254.94
£319.25
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
£34.49
£46.21
£68.97
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
£182.33
£221.86
£283.10
80
Rev-Margin DCF
£178.14
£242.20
£320.93
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
£63.75
£72.95
£88.45
76
ROIC Compounder
£144.28
£160.96
£176.12
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
£106.89
£152.69
£198.50
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
72/100
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Profitability
61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
98
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
54
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.2% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
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’20
’21
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’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+18.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.1% vs 5.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 12%
2025 sits 58% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.7% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 236 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation CTAS | $197.74 | $188.06 | −5% |
| Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI | $99.36 | $70.79 | −29% |
| Copart, Inc CPRT | $27.14 | $31.02 | +14% |
| Global Payments Inc GPN | $83.33 | $88.43 | +6% |
| Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL | €67.82 | €98.05 | +45% |
| Brambles Limited BXB | A$18.55 | A$18.66 | +1% |
| RB Global, Inc RBA | C$116.74 | C$128.41 | +10% |
| Aramark ARMK | $54.92 | $23.06 | −58% |
| UL Solutions Inc ULS | $66.05 | $33.46 | −49% |
| Rentokil Initial plc RTO | $20.64 | $19.63 | −5% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Orell Füssli AG (0QME) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £201.82 versus a price of £139.50, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0QME?
Our model-based fair value for Orell Füssli AG is £201.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £139.50.
What is the quality score of 0QME?
Orell Füssli AG has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £201.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £151.37, optimistic scenario £252.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orell Füssli AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £201.82, about +45% upside versus a price of £139.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £151.37, optimistic scenario £252.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
Orell Füssli AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £274M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Orell Füssli AG pay a dividend?
Orell Füssli AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orell Füssli AG would have to grow free cash flow by -11.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0QME use?
Our models discount Orell Füssli AG at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orell Füssli AG that is -11.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orell Füssli AG (0QME) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orell Füssli AG grew +4.5 % a year. The price currently implies -11.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orell Füssli AG (0QME) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orell Füssli AG (-11.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.15 %: that much free cash flow Orell Füssli AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orell Füssli AG it is £201.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £139.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orell Füssli AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0QME trades below its calculated fair value: price £139.50, fair value £201.82, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QME?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£139.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£201.82). For Orell Füssli AG the two are £62.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orell Füssli AG worth?
The market values Orell Füssli AG at about £302M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £139.50; our models calculate a fair value of £201.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QME?
Our models span a range for Orell Füssli AG: cautious scenario £151.37, base £201.82, optimistic £252.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £139.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0QME?
Orell Füssli AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £201.82 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orell Füssli AG (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QME from its 52-week high?
Orell Füssli AG trades at £139.50, about 19% below its 52-week high of £171.44 and 24% above the low of £112.46 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £201.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orell Füssli AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orell Füssli AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £139.50, calculated fair value £201.82 (+45%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QME calculated?
We run Orell Füssli AG through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £201.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Orell Füssli AG currently trades 31 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was £139.50. Our model-based fair value is £201.82, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orell Füssli AG right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (£151.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Where does the earnings growth of Orell Füssli AG (0QME) come from?
Earnings per share at Orell Füssli AG grew +3.8 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.6 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orell Füssli AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
The market capitalisation of Orell Füssli AG is £302M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orell Füssli AG is 0.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
Earnings per share at Orell Füssli AG are £4.79 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
The dividend yield of Orell Füssli AG is 4.2% (payout 121%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
The net margin of Orell Füssli AG is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orell Füssli AG is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orell Füssli AG is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
The operating margin of Orell Füssli AG is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
Revenue at Orell Füssli AG is growing −0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orell Füssli AG (0QME)?
Earnings per share at Orell Füssli AG are growing −39.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Orell Füssli AG (0QME) hold?
Orell Füssli AG holds more cash than debt, £82.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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