China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd (1258) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$44.6B (≈ $5.7B) · ISIN HK0000112026

CN China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd 1258 · HK

PriceHK$17.49

Fair ValueHK$1.76

Upside-89.9% ⚠

Quality68/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Watch China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 11.8% net margin

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (10/14)

Risks

!Trades 894% ABOVE our fair value of HK$1.76

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.7 %/yr)

!Moderate moat 60/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.7 %/yr)

Solidly profitable · 11.8% net margin

Low debt · generates free cash flow

0.36% dividend yield

Ranks above peers (10/14)

Moderate moat 60/100

Evidence: Medium Range HK$1.32 – HK$2.20 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Share price +21.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but trading 894% above our fair value.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Track China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd and get told automatically when its fair value or trend turns, plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks. 14 days of Pro free, no card. Track it free

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$2.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.10 – HK$17.73 · fair‑value band HK$1.32 – HK$2.20 · the HK$17.49 price screens above the HK$1.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd (1258) currently trades at HK$17.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.76, implying the stock looks roughly 89.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd generated revenue of HK$3.4B at a net margin of 11.8%. Revenue declined 7.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.32 (bear case) to HK$2.20 (bull case); at HK$17.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 161% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -90%, 1258 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$0.4300 to HK$3.85). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Growth DCF HK$2.59 HK$3.72 HK$5.35 80

Residual Income HK$0.6800 HK$0.9000 HK$2.65 76

Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.71 HK$2.34 HK$3.10 74

All 24 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$2.56 HK$3.85 HK$5.85 38

Owner Earnings HK$1.49 HK$2.15 HK$3.18 31

5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.71 HK$2.32 HK$3.09 39

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.29 HK$3.43 HK$4.76 41

5Y P/E Exit HK$1.90 HK$2.70 HK$3.52 38

10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.97 HK$2.61 HK$3.44 36

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.37 HK$3.38 HK$4.73 37

10Y P/E Exit HK$2.12 HK$2.87 HK$3.77 35

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.7000 HK$2.34 HK$3.13 54

Lynch FV HK$0.5300 HK$0.7600 HK$0.9800 50

PEG = 1.0 HK$0.5300 HK$0.7600 HK$0.9800 46

EPV HK$1.81 HK$2.05 HK$2.26 59

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$1.32 HK$1.76 HK$2.20 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.9900 HK$1.31 HK$1.64 58

P/B Multiple HK$1.32 HK$1.76 HK$2.20 55

EV/EBIT HK$2.58 HK$3.31 HK$4.05 53

EV/EBITDA HK$2.36 HK$3.03 HK$3.69 54

EV/Revenue HK$1.30 HK$1.69 HK$2.09 43

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.3200 HK$0.4300 HK$0.6400 50

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$2.59 HK$3.72 HK$5.35 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.71 HK$2.34 HK$3.10 74

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$0.6800 HK$0.9000 HK$2.65 76

ROIC Compounder HK$1.88 HK$2.21 HK$2.56 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.15 HK$1.64 HK$2.13 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$2.70) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.4300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Notify me when 1258 reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.1 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 1.67 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.1

Dividend yield 0.4% payout 89.9%

Net margin 11.8% FY2025

Return on equity 18.1% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 17.3% avg 5y

Operating margin 13.9% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$3.4B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) -7.6% 3y avg -5.8%

EPS growth (YoY) -21.4%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$737M FY2025

Net cash HK$1.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 52

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 42

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 88

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 95

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 57

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 29

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 85

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 96

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 68

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, mining, ore processing, leaching, smelting, and sale of copper and cobalt in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. It operates through the Leaching and Smelting segments. The company offers copper cathodes, blister copper, rough copper, and copper anodes; and cobalt hydroxide, sulfuric acid, and liquid sulfur dioxide. It sells its products in Singapore, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Africa, and Belgium. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Beijing, China. China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited is a subsidiary of China Nonferrous Mining Development Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $4.1B in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was $404M in FY2025, compounding +3.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$3.4B

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−2.0%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+13.7%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+12.0%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+9.7% (9.3 + 0.4)

Revenue −4.1%/yr

FY21 $4.1B

FY22 $4.1B

FY23 $3.6B

FY24 $3.8B

FY25 $3.4B

Net income +3.2%/yr

FY21 $357M

FY22 $266M

FY23 $278M

FY24 $399M

FY25 $404M

1258 screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators

DCF Calculator Graham Number Peter Lynch Formula DDM Calculator Fama-French Model Intrinsic Value

Share or link this analysis

𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit

For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd · Fair Value
HK$1.76 −90%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1258" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$1.76</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−90%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:#7BB290;font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1258

Peer Group

Copper · 61 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −90% · Bottom 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Top 25%

Return on assets 10% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 12% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Above median

Revenue growth -8% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 2.29× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 1.66× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 7.7× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 0

FUTURE0 · sector 100

PAST72 · sector 33

HEALTH100 · sector 92

DIVIDEND5 · sector 21

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO	$216.28	$85.17	-61%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX	$79.00	$22.81	-71%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM	C$43.46	C$16.35	-62%
Lundin Mining Corporation LUN	C$38.09	C$22.65	-41%
Jiangxi Copper Company 600362	¥46.47	¥35.19	-24%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630	¥6.37	¥3.06	-52%
MMG Limited 1208	HK$9.08	HK$5.29	-42%
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM	C$38.79	C$21.25	-45%
Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203	¥19.78	¥6.39	-68%
Capstone Copper Corp CS	C$14.82	C$9.91	-33%

Compare China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

First stock

Second stock

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →

All undervalued stocks Technology Financial Services Healthcare Consumer Cyclical Consumer Defensive Communication Services Industrials Energy Basic Materials Real Estate Utilities Deeply Undervalued Stocks Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks Undervalued Small-Cap Stocks Undervalued Dividend Stocks

Discover undervalued stocks

Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.

🥇 Backtested Best 🏆 Big Names ⭐ Top Rated 💎 Quality on Sale 🚀 Profitable Growth 🧊 Quality Compounders 💵 Dividend Stars 📈 Strong Momentum 📉 Fallen Angels ⚖️ Deeply Undervalued 🔍 Small-Cap Gems 🏰 Moat at a Fair Price 💼 Insider Buying 🎩 Buffett-Style Quality 📚 Peter Lynch GARP 🧮 Greenblatt Magic Formula 🛡️ Graham Defensive

Discover tools

Stock screener Filter by region, size and sector Compare tool Two stocks side by side Fama-French 3-Factor Model Calculator Run the Fama-French 3-factor model in seconds: expected return from the market, size and value factors - free, with formula, betas and an example. Peter Lynch Fair Value Formula & Calculator Apply Peter Lynch's fair value formula in seconds: fair P/E ≈ earnings growth (+ dividend) - free, with formula and example.

Frequently asked questions

Is China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd (1258) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.76 versus a price of HK$17.49, about −90% (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 1258?

Our model-based fair value for China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd is HK$1.76 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$17.49.

What is the quality score of 1258?

China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd (1258)?

China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1258?

The net profit margin of China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd is about 11.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd pay a dividend?

China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.36% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Free · no account needed

Watch China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd in the live analysis

One click puts China Nonferrous Mining Corp Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.

Watch for free →

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.