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Antofagasta plc (ANFGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Antofagasta plc $23.43, price $50.89, upside -54.0%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Antofagasta plc
ANFGF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $23.43 · Strongly overvalued (−54.0%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 15.4% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!1.3% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 56/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.02 – $61.13 · fair‑value band $17.57 – $29.28 · the $50.89 price screens above the $23.43 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company. It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments. The company produces copper cathodes and copper concentrates; molybdenum concentrates; and gold and silver by-products.
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Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company. It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments. The company produces copper cathodes and copper concentrates; molybdenum concentrates; and gold and silver by-products. It also provides rail and road cargo services to mining customers in northern Chile. In addition, the company has exploration projects in various countries. It has operations in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Spain, Germany, rest of Europe, Chile, rest of Latin America, the United States, Japan, China, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, and rest of Asia. The company was incorporated in 1888 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. Antofagasta plc is a subsidiary of Metalinvest Anstalt.
Stock analysis
Antofagasta plc (ANFGF) currently trades at $50.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.43, 54.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $25.23 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $50.89 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.60, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $17.57 (bear) to $29.28 (bull), the price of $50.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Antofagasta plc reported revenue of $8.8B in FY2025 versus $7.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025, compounding +1.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $55.8B · P/E ratio 37.7 · P/S ratio 5.81 · EPS (TTM) $1.35 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 15.4% · Return on equity 15.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −54%, ANFGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $17.57
Fair Value $23.43
Bull $29.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5323 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$10.04
$12.37
$18.00
75
EPV
$19.74
$23.68
$27.12
74
ROIC Compounder
$23.27
$33.68
$47.83
71
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$9.37
$47.70
$65.89
64
Lynch FV
$12.97
$18.53
$24.09
61
PEG = 1.0
$12.97
$18.53
$24.09
57
EPV
$19.74
$23.68
$27.12
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.76
$7.83
$12.42
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.76
$6.60
$8.21
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$17.57
$23.43
$29.28
63
P/S Multiple
$10.06
$13.41
$16.76
58
P/B Multiple
$17.57
$23.43
$29.28
55
EV/EBIT
$34.01
$46.63
$59.25
66
EV/EBITDA
$36.60
$50.08
$63.57
67
EV/Revenue
$5.54
$9.56
$13.58
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$5.27
$7.06
$10.54
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$10.04
$12.37
$18.00
75
ROIC Compounder
$23.27
$33.68
$47.83
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$17.66
$25.23
$32.80
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
60/100
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Profitability
41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
84
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
34
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+14.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.8% vs 11.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 40%
2025 sits 63% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
ANFGF screens overvalued: fair value 54% below the price. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
- Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) Stock Gets Fair Value Bump As Analysts Weigh Growth And Copper
- Antofagasta raised to Buy at Berneberg following copper selloff
- Antofagasta PLC (ANFGF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record EBITDA Margin and Strategic ...
- Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) Stock Gets Fair Value Bump After Mixed Analyst Target Changes
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $202.64 | $157.34 | −22% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $71.96 | $16.47 | −77% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$45.54 | C$20.04 | −56% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥42.40 | ¥25.87 | −39% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$33.93 | C$37.32 | +10% |
| KGHM Polska Miedz S.A KGH | 335.30 PLN | 156.13 PLN | −53% |
| MMG Limited 1208 | HK$8.55 | HK$9.40 | +10% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | $26.87 | $21.22 | −21% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.89 | ¥2.16 | −63% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CS | C$14.54 | C$9.74 | −33% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Antofagasta plc (ANFGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.43 versus a price of $50.89, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ANFGF?
Our model-based fair value for Antofagasta plc is $23.43 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $50.89.
What is the quality score of ANFGF?
Antofagasta plc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.43 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.57, optimistic scenario $29.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Antofagasta plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.43, about −54% upside versus a price of $50.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.57, optimistic scenario $29.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
Antofagasta plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Antofagasta plc pay a dividend?
Antofagasta plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Antofagasta plc it is $23.43 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $50.89. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Antofagasta plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, ANFGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $50.89, fair value $23.43, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ANFGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($50.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.43). For Antofagasta plc the two are $27.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Antofagasta plc worth?
The market values Antofagasta plc at about $55.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $50.89; our models calculate a fair value of $23.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ANFGF?
Our models span a range for Antofagasta plc: cautious scenario $17.57, base $23.43, optimistic $29.28 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $50.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ANFGF from its 52-week high?
Antofagasta plc trades at $50.89, about 17% below its 52-week high of $61.13 and 50% above the low of $33.82 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Antofagasta plc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Jiangxi Copper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Antofagasta plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $50.89, calculated fair value $23.43 (−54%), Quality Score 60/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ANFGF calculated?
We run Antofagasta plc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Antofagasta plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $50.89. Our model-based fair value is $23.43, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Antofagasta plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF) come from?
Earnings per share at Antofagasta plc grew +10.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +6.8 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Antofagasta plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
The market capitalisation of Antofagasta plc is $55.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Antofagasta plc is 37.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Antofagasta plc is 5.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
Earnings per share at Antofagasta plc are $1.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
The dividend yield of Antofagasta plc is 1.3% (payout 47.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
The net margin of Antofagasta plc is 15.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Antofagasta plc is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Antofagasta plc is 13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
The operating margin of Antofagasta plc is 43.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
Revenue at Antofagasta plc is growing +31.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Antofagasta plc (ANFGF)?
Earnings per share at Antofagasta plc are growing +41.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Antofagasta plc (ANFGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Antofagasta plc is −$385M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Antofagasta plc (ANFGF) carry?
The net debt of Antofagasta plc is $5.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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