Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $86.9B
Freeport-McMoRan Inc
FCX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +14.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 67% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($11.78 to $32.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.81 – $71.72 · fair‑value band $11.78 – $32.58 · the $68.18 price screens above the $22.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX) currently trades at $68.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.81, implying the stock looks roughly 66.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Freeport-McMoRan Inc generated revenue of $26.4B at a net margin of 10.3%. Revenue grew 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at $8.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.78 (bear case) to $32.58 (bull case); at $68.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -67%, FCX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($30.66) versus Asset-Based ($8.81). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals.
Full company description
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals. Its assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Chino and Tyrone in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado, North America, as well as Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and changed its name to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in July 2014. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Freeport-McMoRan Inc reported revenue of $25.7B in FY2025 versus $22.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025, compounding −15.4%/yr from FY2021.
FCX screens 67% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- FCX Flashes Buy Signal; This Is Fueling Copper, Rare Earth Stocks
- Noteworthy Tuesday Option Activity: JCI, HPE, FCX
Peer Group
Copper · 58 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $175.66 | $86.74 | -51% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$34.86 | C$18.67 | -46% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥39.03 | ¥35.19 | -10% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.79 | ¥3.06 | -47% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$28.58 | C$21.79 | -24% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥16.66 | ¥7.00 | -58% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$13.06 | A$7.28 | -44% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥14.32 | ¥9.12 | -36% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$14.75 | HK$1.76 | -88% |
| Hindustan Copper Limited HINDCOPPER | ₹486.15 | ₹158.42 | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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