Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Smart Globe Holdings (1481) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Smart Globe Holdings HK$0.18, price HK$1.40, upside -87.1%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · HK · ISIN KYG8233R1056

SG Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Smart Globe Holdings

1481 · HK

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value HK$0.1800 · Strongly overvalued (−87%)

✓Quality 65/100

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.0 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 3.9% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

!Narrow moat 33/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear HK$0.1400 to bull HK$0.2400 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 65/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1830 – HK$3.07 · fair‑value band HK$0.1400 – HK$0.2400 · the HK$1.40 price screens above the HK$0.1800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

Smart Globe Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in production, distribution, and printing of books, and novelty and packaging products. It operates through Printing and Supply Chain Management Service segments. The company offers material sourcing, logistics service, and warehousing and storage services. The company operates in Zambia, Hong Kong, South Africa, the United States, the People's Republic of China, Australia, France, Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

Smart Globe Holdings (1481) currently trades at HK$1.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1800, implying the stock looks roughly 677.6% overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.3000 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$1.40 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0800, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1400 (bear) to HK$0.2400 (bull), the price of HK$1.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Smart Globe Holdings reported revenue of HK$205M in FY2025 versus HK$168M in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$7.9M in FY2025, compounding +47.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$1.4B (≈ $182M) · P/E ratio 140.0 · P/S ratio 5.39 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.7% · Operating margin 3.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 195% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −87%, 1481 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1400 Fair Value HK$0.1800 Bull HK$0.2400

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0073 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF HK$0.2000 HK$0.3000 HK$0.4900 79

Growth DCF HK$0.2000 HK$0.2900 HK$0.4300 78

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2500 HK$0.4200 HK$0.6400 74

All 23 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$0.2000 HK$0.3000 HK$0.4900 79

5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.2000 HK$0.3100 HK$0.4700 72

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2500 HK$0.4200 HK$0.6400 74

5Y P/E Exit HK$0.1900 HK$0.2900 HK$0.4200 70

10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.1900 HK$0.3000 HK$0.4600 66

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.2300 HK$0.3700 HK$0.6100 67

10Y P/E Exit HK$0.1900 HK$0.2800 HK$0.4200 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$0.0500 HK$0.3000 HK$0.4200 63

Lynch FV HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 HK$0.1600 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 HK$0.1600 57

EPV HK$0.1300 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1400 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$0.1300 HK$0.1700 HK$0.2100 63

P/S Multiple HK$0.1000 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1600 58

P/B Multiple HK$0.1000 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1600 55

EV/EBIT HK$0.2400 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3500 66

EV/EBITDA HK$0.2900 HK$0.3600 HK$0.4300 67

EV/Revenue HK$0.2000 HK$0.2500 HK$0.3100 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0600 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$0.2000 HK$0.2900 HK$0.4300 78

Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.2000 HK$0.3000 HK$0.4500 72

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$0.0900 HK$0.0900 HK$0.0900 71

ROIC Compounder HK$0.1300 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1700 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.1300 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2400 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 37

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 93

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 54

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 94

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 44

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 50

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 45

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 66

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 80

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 76/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Revenue growth 1 year

+74.3%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+15.9%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+10.0%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.7% a year

Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+11.7%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

−13.5%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−13.5%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14% vs −3%, slowing

Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 7%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.3%/yr over ~8Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+52.5%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect

n/a

No analyst forecast available.

After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +49.3% a year for the price.

1481 screens 678% overvalued. Compare with Cintas Corporation →

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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 245 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −87% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median

Return on assets 5% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 53% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.14× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 140.0× · Priciest 25%

P/B 11.34× · Priciest 25%

P/S (TTM) 6.97× · Priciest 25%

P/FCF 16.6× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 64.9× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Cintas Corporation CTAS	$198.80	$181.30	−9%
Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI	$95.66	$70.26	−27%
Copart, Inc CPRT	$28.80	$32.23	+12%
Global Payments Inc GPN	$84.78	$85.85	+1%
RB Global, Inc RBA	C$117.34	C$129.07	+10%
UL Solutions Inc ULS	$66.65	$33.62	−50%
Brambles Limited BXB	A$18.73	A$18.66	+0%
Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL	€66.82	€97.78	+46%
Aramark ARMK	$56.59	$23.15	−59%
Rentokil Initial plc RTO	$21.37	$19.63	−8%

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Smart Globe Holdings · Fair Value
HK$0.1800 −678%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1481.HK" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Smart Globe Holdings · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">HK$0.1800</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−678%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Smart Globe Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1481.HK

Frequently asked questions

Is Smart Globe Holdings (1481) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1800 versus a price of HK$1.40, about −87% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of 1481?

Our model-based fair value for Smart Globe Holdings is HK$0.1800 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.40.

What is the quality score of 1481?

Smart Globe Holdings has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1800 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1400, optimistic scenario HK$0.2400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Smart Globe Holdings stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$0.1800, about −87% upside versus a price of HK$1.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1400, optimistic scenario HK$0.2400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

Smart Globe Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$205M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).

What growth is priced into Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Smart Globe Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +52.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1481 use?

Our models discount Smart Globe Holdings at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Smart Globe Holdings that is +52.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Smart Globe Holdings (1481) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Smart Globe Holdings grew +10.0 % a year. The price currently implies +52.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Smart Globe Holdings (1481) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Smart Globe Holdings (+52.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.77 %: that much free cash flow Smart Globe Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smart Globe Holdings it is HK$0.1800 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of HK$1.40. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Smart Globe Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 23, 2026, 1481 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.40, fair value HK$0.1800, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 1481?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1800). For Smart Globe Holdings the two are HK$1.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Smart Globe Holdings worth?

The market values Smart Globe Holdings at about HK$1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.40; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1800 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1481?

Our models span a range for Smart Globe Holdings: cautious scenario HK$0.1400, base HK$0.1800, optimistic HK$0.2400 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price HK$1.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 1481?

Smart Globe Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 140.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.1800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 11.3, P/S 7.0, EV/EBITDA 64.9.

How solid is the balance sheet of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

Balance-sheet figures for Smart Globe Holdings (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 1481 from its 52-week high?

Smart Globe Holdings trades at HK$1.40, about 56% below its 52-week high of HK$3.15 and 195% above the low of HK$0.4750 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1800 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Smart Globe Holdings?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Smart Globe Holdings stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price HK$1.40, calculated fair value HK$0.1800 (−87%), Quality Score 65/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 1481 calculated?

We run Smart Globe Holdings through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Smart Globe Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was HK$1.40. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1800, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Smart Globe Holdings right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Smart Globe Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

The market capitalisation of Smart Globe Holdings is HK$1.4B (≈ $182M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Smart Globe Holdings is 5.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

Earnings per share at Smart Globe Holdings are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 140.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

The net margin of Smart Globe Holdings is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Smart Globe Holdings is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smart Globe Holdings is −3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

The operating margin of Smart Globe Holdings is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

Revenue at Smart Globe Holdings is growing +52.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Smart Globe Holdings (1481)?

Earnings per share at Smart Globe Holdings are growing −63.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net cash does Smart Globe Holdings (1481) hold?

Smart Globe Holdings holds more cash than debt, HK$67.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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