Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest HK$10.02, price HK$6.19, upside +61.9%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
34‑month range HK$4.79 – HK$13.86 · fair‑value band HK$7.51 – HK$12.52 · the HK$6.19 price screens below the HK$10.02 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest Industry Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and marketing of edible bird's nest (EBN) products to distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail customers in the People's Republic of China.
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Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest Industry Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and marketing of edible bird's nest (EBN) products to distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail customers in the People's Republic of China. It operates through five segments: Direct Sales to Online Customers; Direct Sales to Offline Customers; Sales to Offline Distributors; Direct Sales to E-commerce Platform; and Sales to Online Distributors. The company offers pure EBN products, consisting of One Nest, Freshly Stewed Bird's Nest, other bottle-canned bird's nest, and dried EBN; and EBN+ and +EBN products, including EBN porridge, EBN facial masks, and EBN essence; and other products. It offers its products through stores, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Xiamen Yan Palace Bioengineering Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest Industry Co., Ltd. in November 2023. Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest Industry Co., Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Xiamen, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497) currently trades at HK$6.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$10.02, implying the stock looks roughly 38.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$12.91 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$6.19 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.37, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$7.51 (bear) to HK$12.52 (bull), the price of HK$6.19 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest reported revenue of 2.0B CNY in FY2026 versus 1.8B CNY in FY2022, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 189M CNY in FY2026, compounding +3.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.1B (≈ $400M) · P/E ratio 14.5 · P/S ratio 1.36 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 23.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.9% · Operating margin 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 62%, 1497 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$7.51Fair Value HK$10.02Bull HK$12.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
’20
’21
’22
’23
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’25
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−18.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 14%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.2% a year for the price.
Compare Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 644 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+61.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1497
Frequently asked questions
Is Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$10.02 versus a price of HK$6.19, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1497?
Our model-based fair value for Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest is HK$10.02 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$6.19.
What is the quality score of 1497?
Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$10.02 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$7.51, optimistic scenario HK$12.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$10.02, about +62% upside versus a price of HK$6.19 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$7.51, optimistic scenario HK$12.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest pay a dividend?
Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest would have to grow free cash flow by -13.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1497 use?
Our models discount Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest that is -13.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies -13.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (-13.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.90 %: that much free cash flow Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest it is HK$10.02 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$6.19. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1497 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$6.19, fair value HK$10.02, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1497?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$6.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$10.02). For Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest the two are HK$3.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest worth?
The market values Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest at about HK$3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$6.19; our models calculate a fair value of HK$10.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1497?
Our models span a range for Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest: cautious scenario HK$7.51, base HK$10.02, optimistic HK$12.52 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$6.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1497?
Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$10.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.3, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 23.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1497 from its 52-week high?
Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest trades at HK$6.19, about 19% below its 52-week high of HK$7.66 and 29% above the low of HK$4.79 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$10.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$6.19, calculated fair value HK$10.02 (+62%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1497 calculated?
We run Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$10.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$6.19. Our model-based fair value is HK$10.02, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$7.51). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest
How large is the market capitalisation of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
The market capitalisation of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest is HK$3.1B (≈ $400M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest is 1.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
The dividend yield of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest is 4.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
The net margin of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest is 9.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest is 23.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest is 19.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
The operating margin of Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
Revenue at Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497)?
Earnings per share at Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest are growing +14.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest (1497) hold?
Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest holds more cash than debt, 545M CNY net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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