REF Holdings Ltd (1631) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of REF Holdings Ltd HK$0.20, price HK$1.32, upside -84.9%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1630 – HK$1.66 · fair‑value band HK$0.1800 – HK$0.2500 · the HK$1.32 price screens above the HK$0.2000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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REF Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial printing services in Hong Kong. The company provides financial printing services comprising typesetting, proofreading, translation, editing, copywriting, creative design and concept, printing, web submitting, media placement, and distribution services.
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REF Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial printing services in Hong Kong. The company provides financial printing services comprising typesetting, proofreading, translation, editing, copywriting, creative design and concept, printing, web submitting, media placement, and distribution services. It also provides printing of listing documents/IPO prospectuses, financial reports, circulars, announcements, compliance documents, corporate brochures, marketing collaterals, and other documents. In addition, the company leases AGM/EGM conference rooms. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. REF Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Jumbo Ace Enterprises Limited.
Stock analysis
REF Holdings Ltd (1631) currently trades at HK$1.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2000, 84.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.8700 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$1.32 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0800, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.1800 (bear) to HK$0.2500 (bull), the price of HK$1.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
REF Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$92.3M in FY2025 versus HK$135M in FY2021, a compound −9.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.0M in FY2025, compounding −23.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$396M (≈ $50.5M) · P/E ratio 129.0 · P/S ratio 4.16 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200 · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% · Operating margin −5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 262% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −85%, 1631 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.1800Fair Value HK$0.2000Bull HK$0.2500
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0150 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−30.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30.4% vs −21.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−84.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.7% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−5.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9.7% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)129.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.79× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.29× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF12.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA63.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is REF Holdings Ltd (1631) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2000 versus a price of HK$1.32, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1631?
Our model-based fair value for REF Holdings Ltd is HK$0.2000 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.32.
What is the quality score of 1631?
REF Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2000 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1800, optimistic scenario HK$0.2500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the REF Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2000, about −85% upside versus a price of HK$1.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1800, optimistic scenario HK$0.2500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
REF Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$92.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, REF Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -0.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -9.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1631 use?
Our models discount REF Holdings Ltd at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For REF Holdings Ltd that is -0.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has REF Holdings Ltd (1631) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at REF Holdings Ltd grew -9.0 % a year. The price currently implies -0.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of REF Holdings Ltd (1631) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into REF Holdings Ltd (-0.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.40 %: that much free cash flow REF Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For REF Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.2000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.32. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is REF Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1631 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.32, fair value HK$0.2000, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1631?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2000). For REF Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is REF Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values REF Holdings Ltd at about HK$396M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.32; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1631?
Our models span a range for REF Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1800, base HK$0.2000, optimistic HK$0.2500 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1631?
REF Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 129.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.2000 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.8, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 63.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
Balance-sheet figures for REF Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1631 from its 52-week high?
REF Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.32, about 20% below its 52-week high of HK$1.66 and 262% above the low of HK$0.3650 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to REF Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is REF Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.32, calculated fair value HK$0.2000 (−85%), Quality Score 66/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1631 calculated?
We run REF Holdings Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. REF Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.32. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2000, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with REF Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2500). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of REF Holdings Ltd (1631) come from?
Earnings per share at REF Holdings Ltd grew −17.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.4 %, EBIT margin −13.6 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of REF Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
The market capitalisation of REF Holdings Ltd is HK$396M (≈ $50.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
The price-to-sales ratio of REF Holdings Ltd is 4.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
Earnings per share at REF Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 129.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
The net margin of REF Holdings Ltd is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
The return on equity (ROE) of REF Holdings Ltd is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of REF Holdings Ltd is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
The operating margin of REF Holdings Ltd is −5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
Revenue at REF Holdings Ltd is growing −9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at REF Holdings Ltd (1631)?
Earnings per share at REF Holdings Ltd are growing −17.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does REF Holdings Ltd (1631) hold?
REF Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$46.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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