REF Holdings Ltd (1631) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$396M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +3.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 85% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2500). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1630 – HK$1.66 · fair‑value band HK$0.1500 – HK$0.2500 · the HK$1.35 price screens above the HK$0.2000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
REF Holdings Ltd (1631) currently trades at HK$1.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2000, implying the stock looks roughly 85.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, REF Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$92.3M at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue declined 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$46.2M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1500 (bear case) to HK$0.2500 (bull case); at HK$1.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 270% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -38% fair-value upside, at -85%, 1631 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.9000) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.0800). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
REF Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial printing services in Hong Kong. The company provides financial printing services comprising typesetting, proofreading, translation, editing, copywriting, creative design and concept, printing, web submitting, media placement, and distribution services.
Full company description
REF Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial printing services in Hong Kong. The company provides financial printing services comprising typesetting, proofreading, translation, editing, copywriting, creative design and concept, printing, web submitting, media placement, and distribution services. It also provides printing of listing documents/IPO prospectuses, financial reports, circulars, announcements, compliance documents, corporate brochures, marketing collaterals, and other documents. In addition, the company leases AGM/EGM conference rooms. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. REF Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Jumbo Ace Enterprises Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
REF Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$92.3M in FY2025 versus HK$135M in FY2021, a compound −9.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$3.0M in FY2025, compounding −23.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −3.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
1631 screens 85% overvalued. Compare with Cintas Corporation →
Peer Group
Specialty Business Services · 249 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation CTAS | $205.28 | $95.19 | -54% |
| RELX PLC RELX | $34.55 | $32.24 | -7% |
| Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI | C$142.85 | C$70.40 | -51% |
| Copart, Inc CPRT | $28.99 | $28.59 | -1% |
| Global Payments Inc GPN | $88.53 | $68.98 | -22% |
| RB Global, Inc RBA | C$120.52 | C$49.14 | -59% |
| Brambles Limited BXB | A$19.89 | A$12.28 | -38% |
| UL Solutions Inc ULS | $76.68 | $33.62 | -56% |
| Aramark ARMK | $60.35 | $13.18 | -78% |
| ISS A/S ISS | kr 288.20 | kr 251.13 | -13% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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