COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H (1919) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$200B

CS COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H 1919 · HK

PriceHK$17.00

Fair ValueHK$24.92

Upside+46.6%

Quality59/100

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Mixed Growth

Solidly profitable · 11.7% net margin

Low debt · generates free cash flow

7.69% dividend yield

Ranks above peers (12/15)

Narrow moat 44/100

Evidence: Medium Range HK$18.69 – HK$31.15 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$48.26 to HK$24.92 (−48.4%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price +11.9% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 47% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$18.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$3.80 – HK$17.00 · fair‑value band HK$18.69 – HK$31.15 · the HK$17.00 price screens below the HK$24.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H (1919) currently trades at HK$17.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$24.92, implying the stock looks roughly 46.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H generated revenue of HK$213B at a net margin of 11.7%. Revenue declined 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$74.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$18.69 (bear case) to HK$31.15 (bull case); at HK$17.00, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 47%, 1919 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Growth DCF HK$35.04 HK$55.04 HK$90.04 80

Residual Income HK$19.02 HK$22.65 HK$40.18 76

Rev-Margin DCF HK$34.67 HK$53.97 HK$79.81 74

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$35.44 HK$57.89 HK$98.72 38

Owner Earnings HK$41.56 HK$69.57 HK$120.52 31

5Y Revenue Exit HK$34.67 HK$54.67 HK$82.50 39

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$51.77 HK$91.11 HK$142.28 41

5Y P/E Exit HK$45.08 HK$76.85 HK$114.46 38

10Y Revenue Exit HK$33.90 HK$53.28 HK$84.46 36

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$46.24 HK$80.50 HK$136.13 37

10Y P/E Exit HK$41.74 HK$69.85 HK$112.08 35

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$17.88 HK$92.51 HK$127.93 54

Lynch FV HK$25.29 HK$36.13 HK$46.97 50

PEG = 1.0 HK$25.29 HK$36.13 HK$46.97 46

EPV HK$39.34 HK$44.11 HK$48.28 59

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$18.77 HK$39.04 HK$61.93 70

DDM Multi-Stage HK$18.77 HK$32.92 HK$40.97 61

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$41.42 HK$55.22 HK$69.03 63

P/S Multiple HK$28.05 HK$37.40 HK$46.75 58

P/B Multiple HK$33.53 HK$44.71 HK$55.88 55

EV/EBIT HK$56.38 HK$71.61 HK$86.83 53

EV/EBITDA HK$62.54 HK$79.81 HK$97.08 54

EV/Revenue HK$34.28 HK$44.38 HK$54.48 43

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$9.90 HK$13.26 HK$19.80 50

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$35.04 HK$55.04 HK$90.04 80

Rev-Margin DCF HK$34.67 HK$53.97 HK$79.81 74

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$19.02 HK$22.65 HK$40.18 76

ROIC Compounder HK$43.31 HK$53.94 HK$67.19 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$37.92 HK$54.17 HK$70.43 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$69.57) versus Asset-Based (HK$13.26). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$213B

Revenue growth (YoY) -10.6%

Net margin 11.7%

Return on equity 9.9%

Free cash flow HK$21.5B FY2025

P/E ratio 5.7 as of Jul 2, 2026

More key figures

Operating margin 12.9%

EPS (TTM) HK$0.9656

Dividend yield 7.7%

EPS growth (YoY) -48.6%

Net cash HK$74.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 41

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 11

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 52

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 80

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 75

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 83

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 65

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 81

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 99

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Full company description

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the container shipping business in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Mainland China, and internationally. It operates through Container Shipping Business, Terminal Business, and Other Businesses segments. The company offers routes and maritime container transportation services, logistics and port service, and digital supply chain service for enterprises in cross-border e-commerce, home appliances, photovoltaic, automobile, and other industries. It also provides management and financing services; freight forwarding and transportation; property lease; shipping agency; vessel chartering; marine; document services; vessel management and manning; cargo and liner agency; asset management; technical services, container maintenance, container yard warehousing services; multimodal transport; terminal operations; and supply chain management services. In addition, the company engages in the operation of rail terminals. As of December 31, 2025, it operated container fleet of 590 ships with a total capacity of approximately 3.60 million TEUs. The company was formerly known as China COSCO Holdings Company Limited and changed its name to COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. in November 2016. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Tianjin, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H reported revenue of HK$220B in FY2025 versus HK$334B in FY2021, a compound −9.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$30.9B in FY2025, compounding −23.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 68/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$220B

Latest YoY

−6.1%

Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

−17.5%

Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+5.1%

Avg. growth/yr (23Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+11.2%

Revenue −9.9%/yr

FY21 HK$334B

FY22 HK$391B

FY23 HK$175B

FY24 HK$234B

FY25 HK$220B

Net income −23.3%/yr

FY21 HK$89.3B

FY22 HK$110B

FY23 HK$23.9B

FY24 HK$49.1B

FY25 HK$30.9B

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COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H · Fair Value
HK$24.92 +47%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1919

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 237 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Above median

Fair Value upside +47% · Top 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median

Return on assets 3% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 12% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Below median

Revenue growth -11% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 5.9% · Top 25%

Debt / equity 0.11× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.86× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.94× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 1.2× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 2.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

PEG 3.66× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE95 · sector 23

FUTURE0 · sector 18

PAST40 · sector 27

HEALTH94 · sector 89

DIVIDEND100 · sector 53

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA	₹346.60	₹126.31	-64%
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PT Transcoal Pacific Tbk, a shipping company, TCPI	3,060 IDR	368.32 IDR	-88%
Pan Ocean Co 028670	5,630 KRW	11,840 KRW	+110%
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PT Ancara Logistics Indonesia Tbk ALII	795.00 IDR	350.80 IDR	-56%
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk ELPI	700.00 IDR	298.20 IDR	-57%

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Frequently asked questions

Is COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H (1919) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$24.92 versus a price of HK$17.00, about +47% (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 1919?

Our model-based fair value for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H is HK$24.92 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$17.00.

What is the quality score of 1919?

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H (1919)?

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$213B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 1919?

The net profit margin of COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H is about 11.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H pay a dividend?

COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co Ltd H currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.69% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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