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AXA SA (1CS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AXA SA €33.02, price €42.00, upside -21.4%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · IT · Home France · ISIN FR0000120628

AS Broad data Oct 2, 2026

AXA SA

1CS · MI

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value €33.02 · Overvalued (−21.4%)
✓Quality 63/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +9.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓5.5% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 43/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€45.57 €15.58 Fair Value €33.02 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €15.58 – €45.57 · fair‑value band €27.10 – €46.20 · the €42.00 price screens above the €33.02 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

AXA SA, through its subsidiaries, insurance, asset management, and banking services worldwide. The company operates through France, Europe, AXA XL, Asia, Africa & EME-LATAM, and Transversal & Other segments. It offers life and savings insurance and property and casualty insurance products.

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AXA SA, through its subsidiaries, insurance, asset management, and banking services worldwide. The company operates through France, Europe, AXA XL, Asia, Africa & EME-LATAM, and Transversal & Other segments. It offers life and savings insurance and property and casualty insurance products. The company also provides protection and retirement products for individual and professional customers; reinsurance coverages; property, primary and excess casualty, excess and surplus lines, environmental liability, professional liability, construction, marine, energy, aviation and satellite, fine art and specie, livestock and aquaculture, accident and health, and crisis management. In addition, it offers reinsurance solutions with casualty, property risk, property catastrophe, specialty, and other reinsurance; proportional and non-proportional, and facultative reinsurance; risk management solutions and consulting services; integrated ecosystem between healthcare solutions and the insurance coverage, which includes onsite services in clinics, remote teleconsultation and digital services, and home services; travel insurance and assistance services, as well as AXA Multilink platform, a B2B2C platform; Sophia, the customer facing GenAI chatbot; and EMMA, a digital assistant. Further, the company offers motor, household, property and general liability, banking, savings, health, term life, whole life, universal life, endowment, deferred and immediate annuities, and other investment-based products for retail/individual and commercial/group customers. AXA SA was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

Stock analysis

AXA SA (1CS) currently trades at €42.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €33.02, 21.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of €35.60 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €42.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €15.54, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €27.10 (bear) to €46.20 (bull), the price of €42.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

AXA SA reported revenue of €106B in FY2025 versus €112B in FY2021, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was €9.8B in FY2025, compounding +7.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €86.3B · P/E ratio 12.3 · P/S ratio 1.14 · EPS (TTM) €3.42 · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin 9.2% · Return on equity 13.4% · Return on assets 1.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −21%, 1CS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €27.10 Fair Value €33.02 Bull €46.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.8318 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €29.30 €35.60 €52.04 72
Gordon GGM €21.34 €33.20 €46.16 65
DDM Multi-Stage €21.34 €30.76 €41.41 64
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €21.34 €33.20 €46.16 65
DDM Multi-Stage €21.34 €30.76 €41.41 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple €46.96 €62.61 €78.26 63
P/B Multiple €24.35 €32.46 €40.58 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €11.59 €15.54 €23.19 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €29.30 €35.60 €52.04 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.5%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.0% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.9%

1CS screens overvalued: fair value 21% below the price. Compare with Allianz SE →

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Allianz SE ALV €412.00 €229.84 −44%
Zurich Insurance Group ZURN CHF 563.60 CHF 328.80 −42%
Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G €42.75 €10.92 −74%
Sun Life Financial Inc SLF $79.48 $41.03 −48%
American International Group AIG $74.17 $71.58 −3%
Talanx AG TLX €117.40 €91.88 −22%
The Hartford Insurance Group HIG $126.04 $115.03 −9%
Arch Capital Group ACGL $94.26 $127.51 +35%
Swiss Life Holding SLHN CHF 891.00 CHF 413.93 −54%
Sampo Oyj SAMPO €8.81 €6.08 −31%

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AXA SA · Fair Value
€33.02 −21%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AXA SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1CS

Frequently asked questions

Is AXA SA (1CS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €33.02 versus a price of €42.00, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1CS?
Our model-based fair value for AXA SA is €33.02 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €42.00.
What is the quality score of 1CS?
AXA SA has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AXA SA (1CS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €33.02 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €27.10, optimistic scenario €46.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AXA SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €33.02, about −21% upside versus a price of €42.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €27.10, optimistic scenario €46.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AXA SA (1CS)?
AXA SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €94.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does AXA SA pay a dividend?
AXA SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.52% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into AXA SA (1CS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AXA SA would have to grow free cash flow by -12.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -1.3 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1CS use?
Our models discount AXA SA at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AXA SA that is -12.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AXA SA (1CS) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at AXA SA grew -1.3 % a year. The price currently implies -12.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AXA SA (1CS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AXA SA (-12.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AXA SA (1CS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.40 %: that much free cash flow AXA SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AXA SA (1CS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AXA SA it is €33.02 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of €42.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AXA SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 1CS trades above its calculated fair value: price €42.00, fair value €33.02, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1CS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€42.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€33.02). For AXA SA the two are €8.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AXA SA worth?
The market values AXA SA at about €86.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is €42.00; our models calculate a fair value of €33.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1CS?
Our models span a range for AXA SA: cautious scenario €27.10, base €33.02, optimistic €46.20 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price €42.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 1CS from its 52-week high?
AXA SA trades at €42.00, about 8% below its 52-week high of €45.57 and 19% above the low of €35.30 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €33.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AXA SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, Sun Life Financial Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AXA SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price €42.00, calculated fair value €33.02 (−21%), Quality Score 63/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1CS calculated?
We run AXA SA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €33.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AXA SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AXA SA (1CS)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €42.00. Our model-based fair value is €33.02, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AXA SA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of AXA SA

How large is the market capitalisation of AXA SA (1CS)?
The market capitalisation of AXA SA is €86.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of AXA SA (1CS)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of AXA SA is 12.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of AXA SA (1CS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AXA SA is 1.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AXA SA (1CS)?
Earnings per share at AXA SA are €3.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AXA SA (1CS)?
The dividend yield of AXA SA is 5.5% (payout 67.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AXA SA (1CS)?
The net margin of AXA SA is 9.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AXA SA (1CS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AXA SA is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of AXA SA (1CS)?
The return on assets (ROA) of AXA SA is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of AXA SA (1CS)?
The operating margin of AXA SA is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AXA SA (1CS)?
Revenue at AXA SA is growing +3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AXA SA (1CS)?
Earnings per share at AXA SA are growing +59.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AXA SA (1CS) carry?
The net debt of AXA SA is €38.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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