Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd HK$11.29, price HK$3.20, upside +252.8%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.58 – HK$3.71 · fair‑value band HK$7.90 – HK$14.67 · the HK$3.20 price screens below the HK$11.29 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co.,Ltd. engages in the wholesale and retail, food processing and manufacturing, and leasing and commerce service businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
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Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co.,Ltd. engages in the wholesale and retail, food processing and manufacturing, and leasing and commerce service businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company wholesales and retails rice, wheat, corn, sorghum, cooking oil, and other grains and oil, as well as sells fine tea, beverages, and condiments. It also processed and manufactures bread flour, and wheat flour; rice products; instant tea powder, and other tea deep-processed products; fresh extracts; oyster sauce and other sauces; rice, noodles; and coarse cereals, non-staple food, and condiments. In addition, the company offers warehousing and storage; logistics and distribution; quality inspection and information technology; property leasing and management; feed production; commercial trade; commercial operation management; catering; tea planting; port operation; e-commerce; and investment management services, as well as engages in the construction of food bases and development of related complementary facilities. The company was formerly known as Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co.,Ltd. in February 2019. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China. Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group Co.,Ltd.
Stock analysis
Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019) currently trades at HK$3.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.29, implying the stock looks roughly 71.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$15.28 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$3.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$3.39, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$7.90 (bear) to HK$14.67 (bull), the price of HK$3.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd reported revenue of 5.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 10.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −14.2%/yr. Reported net income was 243M CNY in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.7B (≈ $470M) · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.2200 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 253%, 200019 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$7.90Fair Value HK$11.29Bull HK$14.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0756 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 10%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.6%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.5% a year for the price.
Compare Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 639 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−20.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.3% · Below median
Return on assets3.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)8.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/200019
Frequently asked questions
Is Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$11.29 versus a price of HK$3.20, about +253% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 200019?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd is HK$11.29 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.20.
What is the quality score of 200019?
Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$11.29 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$7.90, optimistic scenario HK$14.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$11.29, about +253% upside versus a price of HK$3.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$7.90, optimistic scenario HK$14.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.75% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -17.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -14.3 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 200019 use?
Our models discount Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd that is -17.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd grew -14.3 % a year. The price currently implies -17.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (-17.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 31.24 %: that much free cash flow Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd it is HK$11.29 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$3.20. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 200019 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$3.20, fair value HK$11.29, a gap of about +253% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 200019?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$11.29). For Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd the two are HK$8.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd at about HK$3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.20; our models calculate a fair value of HK$11.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 200019?
Our models span a range for Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$7.90, base HK$11.29, optimistic HK$14.67 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$3.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 200019?
Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$11.29 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 4.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 200019 from its 52-week high?
Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd trades at HK$3.20, about 14% below its 52-week high of HK$3.71 and 4% above the low of HK$3.07 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$11.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$3.20, calculated fair value HK$11.29 (+253%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 200019 calculated?
We run Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$11.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd currently trades 72 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$3.20. Our model-based fair value is HK$11.29, about +253% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$7.90). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$7.90 to HK$14.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
The market capitalisation of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd is HK$3.7B (≈ $470M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd are HK$0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
The dividend yield of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd is 3.8% (payout 54.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
The net margin of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
The operating margin of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
Revenue at Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd is growing −5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd are growing −28.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd (200019) carry?
The net debt of Shenzhen Shenbao Industrial Co Ltd is 1.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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