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Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd HK$3.26, price HK$3.77, upside -13.5%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · HK · ISIN KYG8211R1011

SC Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Smart-Core Holdings Ltd

2166 · HK

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value HK$3.26 · Overvalued (−13.5%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +41.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!4.5% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 15 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$6.54 HK$0.9080 Fair Value HK$3.26 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.9080 – HK$6.54 · fair‑value band HK$2.63 – HK$4.02 · the HK$3.77 price screens above the HK$3.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Smart-Core Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, distributes integrated circuits and other electronic components in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, Singapore, Japan, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Authorised Distribution and Mixed Distribution.

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Smart-Core Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, distributes integrated circuits and other electronic components in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, Singapore, Japan, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Authorised Distribution and Mixed Distribution. The company offers SoC (System on Chip) chips; memory chips and modules comprising DRAM, NOR Flash, NAND Flash, MCP, KGD wafers, and enterprise-grade eSSDs; and core transmitter- and receiver-end chips and components for data communication optical modules. Its products are used in various applications, such as TV products, smart terminals, memory products, optoelectronic displays, communication, security monitoring, Internet of Things (IoT), optical communication, and others. The company also provides optical communication chips; engineering support; and chip supply chain assurance, customized technical solutions, and full-lifecycle technical support services. In addition, it operates an e-commerce platform. The company serves consumer electronic product manufacturing companies, original design manufacturers, and original equipment manufacturers in the electronic product industry. The company was formerly known as Smart-Core Cloud Group Limited and changed its name to Smart-Core Holdings Limited in August 2016. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong. Smart-Core Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Smart IC Limited.

Stock analysis

Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166) currently trades at HK$3.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.26, 13.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$7.34 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$3.77 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.33, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$2.63 (bear) to HK$4.02 (bull), the price of HK$3.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Smart-Core Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$6.6B in FY2025 versus HK$10.4B in FY2021, a compound −10.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$161M in FY2025, compounding −6.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$2.4B (≈ $310M) · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1000 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −14%, 2166 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$2.63 Fair Value HK$3.26 Bull HK$4.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings HK$4.30 HK$5.55 HK$7.08 76
EPV HK$2.87 HK$3.17 HK$3.42 74
Residual Income HK$2.06 HK$2.44 HK$3.18 74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$4.30 HK$5.55 HK$7.08 76
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.25 HK$5.19 HK$6.67 63
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.8800 HK$1.25 HK$1.63 55
EPV HK$2.87 HK$3.17 HK$3.42 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.9500 HK$1.46 HK$1.96 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.9500 HK$1.33 HK$1.69 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$6.93 HK$9.25 HK$11.56 63
P/S Multiple HK$4.21 HK$5.61 HK$7.02 58
P/B Multiple HK$4.21 HK$5.61 HK$7.02 55
EV/EBIT HK$6.35 HK$8.23 HK$10.12 66
EV/EBITDA HK$5.30 HK$6.84 HK$8.37 67
EV/Revenue HK$3.55 HK$4.77 HK$6.00 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.09 HK$1.45 HK$2.17 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.06 HK$2.44 HK$3.18 74
ROIC Compounder HK$2.94 HK$3.34 HK$3.76 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$5.14 HK$7.34 HK$9.54 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 34
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.1% vs 12.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 62% above its own trend.

2166 screens overvalued: fair value 14% below the price. Compare with TD SYNNEX Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronics & Computer Distribution · 155 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −13.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 2.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 87.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Electronics & Computer Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.29× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.37× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.3× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)15 · sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 62
PAST (return on equity)64 · sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)90 · sector 60

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Insight Enterprises, Inc NSIT $159.03 $140.05 −12%
Shenzhen Huaqiang Industry Co 000062 ¥21.32 ¥7.52 −65%
Topco Scientific Co 5434 542.00 TWD 472.85 TWD −13%

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Smart-Core Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$3.26 −14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Smart-Core Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2166

Frequently asked questions

Is Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.26 versus a price of HK$3.77, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2166?
Our model-based fair value for Smart-Core Holdings Ltd is HK$3.26 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.77.
What is the quality score of 2166?
Smart-Core Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.26 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.63, optimistic scenario HK$4.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smart-Core Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.26, about −14% upside versus a price of HK$3.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.63, optimistic scenario HK$4.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
Smart-Core Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$6.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Smart-Core Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Smart-Core Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smart-Core Holdings Ltd it is HK$3.26 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$3.77. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Smart-Core Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2166 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$3.77, fair value HK$3.26, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2166?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.26). For Smart-Core Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.5100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smart-Core Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Smart-Core Holdings Ltd at about HK$2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.77; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2166?
Our models span a range for Smart-Core Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.63, base HK$3.26, optimistic HK$4.02 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$3.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2166?
Smart-Core Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$3.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 13.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
Balance-sheet figures for Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2166 from its 52-week high?
Smart-Core Holdings Ltd trades at HK$3.77, about 42% below its 52-week high of HK$6.54 and 115% above the low of HK$1.75 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Smart-Core Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value TD SYNNEX Corporation, Unisplendour Corporation, Rexel S.A, Arrow Electronics, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Smart-Core Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$3.77, calculated fair value HK$3.26 (−14%), Quality Score 60/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2166 calculated?
We run Smart-Core Holdings Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Smart-Core Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$3.77. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.26, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smart-Core Holdings Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166) come from?
Earnings per share at Smart-Core Holdings Ltd grew +7.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
The market capitalisation of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd is HK$2.4B (≈ $310M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd is 0.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
Earnings per share at Smart-Core Holdings Ltd are HK$0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
The dividend yield of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd is 4.5% (payout 170%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
The net margin of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd is 2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
The operating margin of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
Revenue at Smart-Core Holdings Ltd is growing +87.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166)?
Earnings per share at Smart-Core Holdings Ltd are growing +77.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166) generate?
The free cash flow of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd is −HK$379M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Smart-Core Holdings Ltd (2166) carry?
The net debt of Smart-Core Holdings Ltd is HK$232M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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