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Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (2289) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$788M

CP Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd 2289 · HK
PriceHK$5.50
Fair ValueHK$8.23
Upside+49.6%
Quality50/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 1.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.44% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Narrow moat 25/100
Evidence: High Range HK$6.35 – HK$9.88 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$8.46 to HK$8.23 (−2.7%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price −24.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 50% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$14.90 HK$2.95 Fair Value HK$8.23 Mar 2017 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$2.95 – HK$14.90 · fair‑value band HK$6.35 – HK$9.88 · the HK$5.50 price screens below the HK$8.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (2289) currently trades at HK$5.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.23, implying the stock looks roughly 49.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$4.4B at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue grew 6.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.5%. Net debt stands at HK$1.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$6.35 (bear case) to HK$9.88 (bull case); at HK$5.50, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at 50%, 2289 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$28.01 HK$33.85 HK$41.59 80
Residual Income HK$4.47 HK$4.69 HK$4.83 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$18.56 HK$21.86 HK$25.80 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$27.54 HK$33.77 HK$42.52 38
Owner Earnings HK$12.79 HK$14.62 HK$17.20 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$18.56 HK$21.39 HK$24.94 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$20.68 HK$25.05 HK$30.15 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$19.02 HK$22.19 HK$25.50 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$22.15 HK$25.13 HK$28.31 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$23.48 HK$27.36 HK$31.60 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$22.54 HK$25.61 HK$28.66 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$2.91 HK$5.64 HK$7.04 54
EPV HK$10.34 HK$10.84 HK$11.26 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$5.79 HK$7.62 HK$9.30 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$5.79 HK$7.63 HK$9.53 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$7.07 HK$9.43 HK$11.78 63
P/S Multiple HK$5.46 HK$7.28 HK$9.10 58
P/B Multiple HK$5.46 HK$7.28 HK$9.10 55
EV/EBIT HK$14.67 HK$17.35 HK$20.03 53
EV/EBITDA HK$17.02 HK$20.49 HK$23.95 54
EV/Revenue HK$12.37 HK$14.83 HK$17.28 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.85 HK$3.83 HK$5.71 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$28.01 HK$33.85 HK$41.59 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$18.56 HK$21.86 HK$25.80 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.47 HK$4.69 HK$4.83 76
ROIC Compounder HK$10.34 HK$10.84 HK$11.26 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$5.07 HK$7.24 HK$9.42 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$25.05) versus Asset-Based (HK$3.83). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$4.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.8%
Net margin 1.1%
Return on equity 7.5%
Free cash flow HK$263M FY2025
P/E ratio 14.9 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 2.8%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.2000
Dividend yield 4.4%
EPS growth (YoY) -7.5%
Net debt HK$1.3B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. engages in the pharmaceutical distribution business in the People's Republic of China. It distributes western medicines, Chinese patent medicines, healthcare products, and pharmaceutical products to downstream distributors and retail terminals.

Full company description

Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. engages in the pharmaceutical distribution business in the People's Republic of China. It distributes western medicines, Chinese patent medicines, healthcare products, and pharmaceutical products to downstream distributors and retail terminals. The company also offers pharmaceutical product related consulting services; and operates Charmacy e-Medicine, a B2B e-commerce platform to place orders online, make inquires, and payments, etc. The company was formerly known as Chuangmei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. in July 2016. Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Shantou, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$4.4B in FY2025 versus HK$3.8B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$46.3M in FY2025, compounding +18.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$4.4B
Latest YoY
−1.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.9%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.2%
Revenue +3.7%/yr
FY21 HK$3.8B
FY22 HK$4.2B
FY23 HK$4.4B
FY24 HK$4.4B
FY25 HK$4.4B
Net income +18.9%/yr
FY21 HK$23.2M
FY22 HK$90.5M
FY23 HK$51.3M
FY24 HK$53.3M
FY25 HK$46.3M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.0 pp

of which total revenue +3.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.1 pp

EBIT margin −4.1 pp
Tax rate +0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +3.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$8.23 +50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2289

Peer Group

Medical Distribution · 77 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside +50% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.4% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.06× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.28× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.18× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.4× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 99 · sector 31
FUTURE 34 · sector 17
PAST 30 · sector 22
HEALTH 97 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 89 · sector 53

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McKesson Corporation MCK $878.73 $819.31 -7%
Cencora, Inc COR $314.17 $211.07 -33%
Cardinal Health, Inc CAH $234.16 $141.77 -39%
Henry Schein, Inc HSIC $90.74 $71.70 -21%
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 ¥16.56 ¥33.96 +105%
Sinopharm Group 1099 HK$16.75 HK$58.67 +250%
Galenica AG GALE CHF 80.85 CHF 61.79 -24%
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 ¥21.49 ¥28.65 +33%
Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 ¥5.04 ¥9.84 +95%
Asker Healthcare Group ASKER kr 80.00 kr 28.26 -65%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (2289) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.23 versus a price of HK$5.50, about +50% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2289?
Our model-based fair value for Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is HK$8.23 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$5.50.
What is the quality score of 2289?
Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (2289)?
Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$4.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2289?
The net profit margin of Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is about 1.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.44% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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