Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co HK$7.35, price HK$2.45, upside +200.0%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range HK$1.85 – HK$3.04 · fair‑value band HK$5.27 – HK$9.95 · the HK$2.45 price screens below the HK$7.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Hollwin Urban Operation Service Group Co., Ltd. provides management services, urban services, and commercial operation services in China. The company offers property management services for public properties, commercial properties, residential properties, and value-added services.
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It also provides urban services comprising landscaping and engineering, including landscape construction and engineering construction; lighting system operation, such as landscape lighting operation and functional lighting operation; parking lot operation, including operation and management of stand-alone public parking lots on the ground, underground, and under bridge; and municipal sanitation services, such as road cleaning, sweeping and upkeep, and cleaning of bus stops and signage, as well as collection and transportation of urban domestic waste.
In addition, the company offers commercial property operation services to developers, owners, and tenants, including preliminary business planning, preliminary operation analysis, tenant recruitment, lease agreement formulation, opening guidance, and daily operation counselling.
The company was founded in 2015 and is based in Changsha, China. Hollwin Urban Operation Service Group Co., Ltd is a subsidiary of Changsha Urban Development Group Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529) currently trades at HK$2.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.35, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$11.74 per share, and 15 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$2.45 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$2.02, and 1 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$5.27 (bear) to HK$9.95 (bull), the price of HK$2.45 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co reported revenue of 675M CNY in FY2025 versus 432M CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 74.4M CNY in FY2025, compounding +16.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$392M (≈ $50.0M) · P/E ratio 4.7 · P/S ratio 0.52 · Dividend yield 9.8% · Net margin 11.0% · Return on equity 19.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.4% · Operating margin 17.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 200%, 2529 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$5.27Fair Value HK$7.35BullHK$9.95
Price HK$2.45 · Upside +200.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 14%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−35.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −36.6% a year for the price.
Compare Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 236 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)11.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)9.8% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2529
Frequently asked questions
Is Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$7.35 versus a price of HK$2.45, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2529?
Our model-based fair value for Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co is HK$7.35 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.45.
What is the quality score of 2529?
Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$7.35 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.27, optimistic scenario HK$9.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$7.35, about +200% upside versus a price of HK$2.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.27, optimistic scenario HK$9.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 668M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co pay a dividend?
Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.80% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co would have to grow free cash flow by -35.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +11.8 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2529 use?
Our models discount Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co that is -35.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co grew +11.8 % a year. The price currently implies -35.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (-35.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.72 %: that much free cash flow Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co it is HK$7.35 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of HK$2.45. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 2529 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.45, fair value HK$7.35, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2529?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$7.35). For Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co the two are HK$4.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co worth?
The market values Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co at about HK$392M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.45; our models calculate a fair value of HK$7.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2529?
Our models span a range for Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co: cautious scenario HK$5.27, base HK$7.35, optimistic HK$9.95 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price HK$2.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2529?
Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.7 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$7.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 19.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2529 from its 52-week high?
Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co trades at HK$2.45, about 19% below its 52-week high of HK$3.04 and at the low of HK$2.45 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$7.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price HK$2.45, calculated fair value HK$7.35 (+200%), Quality Score 49/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2529 calculated?
We run Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$7.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was HK$2.45. Our model-based fair value is HK$7.35, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$5.27). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$5.27 to HK$9.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
The market capitalisation of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co is HK$392M (≈ $50.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co is 0.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
The dividend yield of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co is 9.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
The net margin of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co is 11.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co is 11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
The operating margin of Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
Revenue at Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co is growing −2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529)?
Earnings per share at Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co are growing +1.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co (2529) hold?
Hollwin Urban Op Svc Grp Co holds more cash than debt, 352M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 2, 2026