Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings HK$12.53, price HK$5.34, upside +134.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.74 – HK$11.71 · fair‑value band HK$8.77 – HK$16.29 · the HK$5.34 price screens below the HK$12.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging paper, printing and writing paper, and specialty paper products and pulp in the People's Republic of China.
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Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging paper, printing and writing paper, and specialty paper products and pulp in the People's Republic of China. The company offers kraft, test, white top, and coated linerboard, as well as bleached folding boxboard; corrugating medium; uncoated wood free and office paper; coated duplex board; and gypsum board cover paper. It also provides container board, kraft paper, and packaging products; corrugated sheet, cardboard, and carton box; kraft paper bag; color printing; and laminated paper products. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dongguan, the People's Republic of China. Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited is a subsidiary of Best Result Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689) currently trades at HK$5.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.53, implying the stock looks roughly 57.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$14.65 per share, and 12 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$5.34 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$3.57, and 2 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$8.77 (bear) to HK$16.29 (bull), the price of HK$5.34 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings reported revenue of 76.7B CNY in FY2026 versus 64.5B CNY in FY2022, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was 4.0B CNY in FY2026, compounding +4.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$27.6B (≈ $3.5B) · P/E ratio 6.6 · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.2800 · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 135%, 2689 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$8.77Fair Value HK$12.53Bull HK$16.29
Price HK$5.34 · Upside +134.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0736 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.0% vs 10.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 9%
2026 sits 211% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Compare Nine Dragons Paper Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 118 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+134.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.0% · Above median
Return on assets2.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.18× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2689
Frequently asked questions
Is Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.53 versus a price of HK$5.34, about +135% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2689?
Our model-based fair value for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings is HK$12.53 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.34.
What is the quality score of 2689?
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$12.53 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$8.77, optimistic scenario HK$16.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nine Dragons Paper Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$12.53, about +135% upside versus a price of HK$5.34 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$8.77, optimistic scenario HK$16.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 75.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nine Dragons Paper Holdings it is HK$12.53 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of HK$5.34. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nine Dragons Paper Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 2689 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$5.34, fair value HK$12.53, a gap of about +135% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2689?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$5.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$12.53). For Nine Dragons Paper Holdings the two are HK$7.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nine Dragons Paper Holdings worth?
The market values Nine Dragons Paper Holdings at about HK$27.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is HK$5.34; our models calculate a fair value of HK$12.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2689?
Our models span a range for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings: cautious scenario HK$8.77, base HK$12.53, optimistic HK$16.29 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price HK$5.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2689?
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$12.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 2689?
The PEG ratio of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings is 0.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 1.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2689 from its 52-week high?
Nine Dragons Paper Holdings trades at HK$5.34, about 46% below its 52-week high of HK$9.83 and 3% above the low of HK$5.17 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$12.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nine Dragons Paper Holdings?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, The Navigator Company, PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nine Dragons Paper Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price HK$5.34, calculated fair value HK$12.53 (+135%), Quality Score 47/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2689 calculated?
We run Nine Dragons Paper Holdings through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$12.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Nine Dragons Paper Holdings currently trades 57 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$5.34. Our model-based fair value is HK$12.53, about +135% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nine Dragons Paper Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$8.77). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$8.77 to HK$16.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689) come from?
Earnings per share at Nine Dragons Paper Holdings grew −0.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin −8.4 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
The market capitalisation of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings is HK$27.6B (≈ $3.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings is 0.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
Earnings per share at Nine Dragons Paper Holdings are HK$0.2800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
The net margin of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings is 5.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
The operating margin of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
Revenue at Nine Dragons Paper Holdings is growing +26.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689)?
Earnings per share at Nine Dragons Paper Holdings are growing +24.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689) generate?
The free cash flow of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings is −10.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (2689) carry?
The net debt of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings is 79.0B CNY (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 28, 2026