Empresas CMPC (CMPC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Empresas CMPC CLP 1,355, price CLP 967, upside +40.2%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 919.79 CLP – 1,919 CLP · fair‑value band 988.65 CLP – 1,989 CLP · the 966.50 CLP price screens below the 1,355 CLP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Empresas CMPC S.A. engages in the production and sale of pulp and wood products in Chile and internationally. It operates through Pulp, Biopackaging, and Softys segments. The Pulp segment produces and markets pulp, forestry, and lumber products to the industrial pulp mills, remanufactured products, and plywood plants.
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Empresas CMPC S.A. engages in the production and sale of pulp and wood products in Chile and internationally. It operates through Pulp, Biopackaging, and Softys segments. The Pulp segment produces and markets pulp, forestry, and lumber products to the industrial pulp mills, remanufactured products, and plywood plants. This segment also offers sawn lumber, remanufactured products, and plywood sheets, as well as owns forest plantations, primarily pine and eucalyptus. The Biopackaging segment provides elaborated paper products, such as bags or industrial sacks, as well as molded pulp trays, and corrugation and corrugated cardboard boxes; manufactures and retails bags; and distributes papers. The Softys segment offers tissue products, such as toilet papers, paper towels, paper napkins, and facial tissues; sanitary products comprising baby diapers, wipes, adult diapers, and sanitary napkins; and specialized hygiene products for consumption in institutions and public places. This segment sells its products through supermarkets, pharmacies, and distributors under the Elite, Confort, Nova, Higienol, Sussex, Babysec, Cotidian, Ladysoft, Duetto, Cotton, Deluxe, Cremer, PomPom, and other brand names. The company was incorporated in 1920 and is headquartered in Santiago, Chile.
Stock analysis
Empresas CMPC (CMPC) currently trades at 966.50 CLP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,355 CLP, implying the stock looks roughly 28.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 2,680 CLP per share, and 15 of the 20 models we run sit above the 966.50 CLP price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at 1,068 CLP, and 5 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 988.65 CLP (bear) to 1,989 CLP (bull), the price of 966.50 CLP sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Empresas CMPC reported revenue of $7.5B in FY2025 versus $6.3B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $202M in FY2025, compounding −21.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.6T CLP (≈ $2.6B) · P/E ratio 15.1 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) 64.11 CLP · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 40%, CMPC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 988.65 CLPFair Value 1,355 CLPBull 1,989 CLP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (46.89 CLP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−8.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 7%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.0% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 121 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside+59% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Empresas CMPC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMPC
Frequently asked questions
Is Empresas CMPC (CMPC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,355 CLP versus a price of 966.50 CLP, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CMPC?
Our model-based fair value for Empresas CMPC is 1,355 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 966.50 CLP.
What is the quality score of CMPC?
Empresas CMPC has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,355 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario 988.65 CLP, optimistic scenario 1,989 CLP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Empresas CMPC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,355 CLP, about +40% upside versus a price of 966.50 CLP (undervalued). Cautious scenario 988.65 CLP, optimistic scenario 1,989 CLP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
Empresas CMPC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Empresas CMPC pay a dividend?
Empresas CMPC currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Empresas CMPC would have to grow free cash flow by +0.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMPC use?
Our models discount Empresas CMPC at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Chile. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Empresas CMPC that is +0.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Empresas CMPC (CMPC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Empresas CMPC grew +7.2 % a year. The price currently implies +0.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Empresas CMPC (CMPC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Empresas CMPC (+0.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.85 %: that much free cash flow Empresas CMPC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Empresas CMPC it is 1,355 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 966.50 CLP. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Empresas CMPC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CMPC trades below its calculated fair value: price 966.50 CLP, fair value 1,355 CLP, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMPC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (966.50 CLP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,355 CLP). For Empresas CMPC the two are 388.53 CLP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Empresas CMPC worth?
The market values Empresas CMPC at about 2.6T CLP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 966.50 CLP; our models calculate a fair value of 1,355 CLP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMPC?
Our models span a range for Empresas CMPC: cautious scenario 988.65 CLP, base 1,355 CLP, optimistic 1,989 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 966.50 CLP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMPC?
Empresas CMPC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1,355 CLP is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Empresas CMPC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.0%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMPC from its 52-week high?
Empresas CMPC trades at 966.50 CLP, about 35% below its 52-week high of 1,477 CLP and 1% above the low of 957.00 CLP (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,355 CLP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Empresas CMPC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Empresas CMPC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 966.50 CLP, calculated fair value 1,355 CLP (+40%), Quality Score 46/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMPC calculated?
We run Empresas CMPC through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,355 CLP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Empresas CMPC currently trades 40 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 966.50 CLP. Our model-based fair value is 1,355 CLP, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Empresas CMPC right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (988.65 CLP). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (988.65 CLP to 1,989 CLP) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Empresas CMPC
How large is the market capitalisation of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
The market capitalisation of Empresas CMPC is 2.6T CLP (≈ $2.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Empresas CMPC is 0.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
Earnings per share at Empresas CMPC are 64.11 CLP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
The dividend yield of Empresas CMPC is 0.0% (payout 0.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
The net margin of Empresas CMPC is 2.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Empresas CMPC is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Empresas CMPC is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
The operating margin of Empresas CMPC is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
Revenue at Empresas CMPC is growing +0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Empresas CMPC (CMPC)?
Earnings per share at Empresas CMPC are growing −50.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Empresas CMPC (CMPC) carry?
The net debt of Empresas CMPC is $5.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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