The Navigator Company SA (NVG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The Navigator Company SA stock €2.49, price €3.04, that is 18.1% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.06 – €3.78 · fair‑value band €2.09 – €3.86 · the €3.04 price screens above the €2.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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The Navigator Company, S.A. engages in the production of forestry, pulp, paper, tissue, and packaging solutions worldwide. The company operates through Market Folder, UWF Paper, Tissue Paper, and Energy segments.
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It is involved in the production of pulp, printing, and writing papers under the Navigator, Pioneer, and Inacopia brands; production of tissue under the Amoos brand; provision of packaging solutions under the gKraft brand; research, acquisition, and sale of wood; production of bleached eucalyptus pulp; and production and commercialization of thermal and electrical energy.
The company was formerly known as Portucel, S.A. and changed its name to The Navigator Company, S.A. in February 2016. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Setúbal, Portugal.
The Navigator Company, S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A.
Stock analysis
The Navigator Company SA (NVG) currently trades at €3.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.49, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €3.46 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the €3.04 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.8300, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €2.09 (bear) to €3.86 (bull), the price of €3.04 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
The Navigator Company SA reported revenue of €2.0B in FY2025 versus €1.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was €145M in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.2B Mid · P/E ratio 23.4 · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) €0.1300 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at −18%, NVG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€2.09Fair Value €2.49Bull€3.86
Price €3.04 · Downside -18.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0154 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€0.6200€1.12€1.9777
Growth DCF€0.6600€1.15€1.9176
Residual Income€1.74€1.92€2.2776
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€0.6200€1.12€1.9777
Owner Earnings€0.3000€0.7000€1.3771
5Y Revenue Exit€1.18€2.27€3.7970
5Y EBITDA Exit€1.75€3.25€5.1473
5Y P/E Exit€1.07€2.08€3.2269
10Y Revenue Exit€0.8700€1.77€2.8465
10Y EBITDA Exit€1.28€2.41€3.7367
10Y P/E Exit€0.8700€1.65€2.4763
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd€1.38€2.51€3.1166
EPV€0.4000€0.6000€0.770073
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€2.13€2.76€3.3869
DDM Multi-Stage€2.13€2.86€3.6967
Multiples
P/E Multiple€2.59€3.46€4.3263
P/S Multiple€2.59€3.46€4.3258
P/B Multiple€2.80€3.73€4.6655
EV/EBIT€2.03€3.04€4.0465
EV/EBITDA€2.90€4.20€5.5067
EV/Revenue€1.63€2.75€3.8752
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€0.6200€0.8300€1.2454
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€0.6600€1.15€1.9176
Rev-Margin DCF€1.18€2.29€3.6071
Economic Profit
Residual Income€1.74€1.92€2.2776
ROIC Compounder€0.4000€0.6000€0.770071
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E€1.85€2.65€3.4467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 10%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.4% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Navigator's shift toward tissue and packaging offers some diversification from pulp cycles, yet the business remains a typical paper producer with modest margins and no clear durable moat.
Main risk: Higher energy and logistics costs have already tightened margins, and continued exposure to pulp and paper cycles risks further pressure on returns if the tissue and packaging projects do not deliver enough buffer.
Navigator is adding a new tissue machine in Aveiro to feed its recently acquired UK converting operations and grow that segment further. The move fits its shift toward tissue and packaging, yet first-half margins tightened amid higher energy and logistics costs. Will the tissue expansion and packaging projects provide enough buffer against pulp and paper cycles, or will the integration and spending keep pressuring overall returns?
Compare The Navigator Company SA with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−18.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.5% · Above median
Return on assets4.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)5.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−3.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.4× · Pricier than median
P/B1.53× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.19× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)22.5× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Navigator Company SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NVG
Frequently asked questions
Is The Navigator Company SA (NVG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.49 versus a price of €3.04, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NVG?
Our model-based fair value for The Navigator Company SA is €2.49 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €3.04.
What is the quality score of NVG?
The Navigator Company SA has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €2.49 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.09, optimistic scenario €3.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Navigator Company SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €2.49, about 18% lower versus a price of €3.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.09, optimistic scenario €3.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
The Navigator Company SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does The Navigator Company SA pay a dividend?
The Navigator Company SA currently shows a dividend yield of 3.68% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of The Navigator Company SA (NVG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
The Navigator Company SA pays a dividend of €0.112 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2012. The payout ratio is 86.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.21 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Navigator Company SA would have to grow free cash flow by +16.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NVG use?
Our models discount The Navigator Company SA at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Portugal. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Navigator Company SA that is +16.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Navigator Company SA (NVG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Navigator Company SA grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +16.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Navigator Company SA (NVG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Navigator Company SA (+16.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.44 %: that much free cash flow The Navigator Company SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Navigator Company SA it is €2.49 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €3.04. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is The Navigator Company SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, NVG trades above its calculated fair value: price €3.04, fair value €2.49, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€3.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€2.49). For The Navigator Company SA the two are €0.5493 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Navigator Company SA worth?
The market values The Navigator Company SA at about €2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €3.04; our models calculate a fair value of €2.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVG?
Our models span a range for The Navigator Company SA: cautious scenario €2.09, base €2.49, optimistic €3.86 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €3.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NVG?
The Navigator Company SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.4 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €2.49 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 13.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.5, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
What is the PEG ratio of NVG?
The PEG ratio of The Navigator Company SA is 0.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Navigator Company SA (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NVG from its 52-week high?
The Navigator Company SA trades at €3.04, about 11% below its 52-week high of €3.44 and 8% above the low of €2.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €2.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Navigator Company SA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Suzano S.A, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Navigator Company SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €3.04, calculated fair value €2.49 (−18%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVG calculated?
We run The Navigator Company SA through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €2.49 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. The Navigator Company SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €3.04. Our model-based fair value is €2.49, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Navigator Company SA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€2.09 to €3.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of The Navigator Company SA
How large is the market capitalisation of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
The market capitalisation of The Navigator Company SA is €2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Navigator Company SA is 1.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
Earnings per share at The Navigator Company SA are €0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
The dividend yield of The Navigator Company SA is 3.7% (payout 86.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
The net margin of The Navigator Company SA is 5.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Navigator Company SA is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Navigator Company SA is 12.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
The operating margin of The Navigator Company SA is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
Revenue at The Navigator Company SA is growing −3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Navigator Company SA (NVG)?
Earnings per share at The Navigator Company SA are growing −50.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The Navigator Company SA (NVG) carry?
The net debt of The Navigator Company SA is €704M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026