Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Union Insurance Co Ltd TWD 35.49, price TWD 40.15, upside -11.6%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12.44 TWD – 40.95 TWD · fair‑value band 31.38 TWD – 55.97 TWD · the 40.15 TWD price screens above the 35.49 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Union Insurance Co., Ltd. provides insurance products and services in Taiwan. It underwrites fire, marine, automobile, engineering, liability and accident, health, and other insurance products; and reinsurance products. The company was incorporated in 1963 and is headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816) currently trades at 40.15 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 35.49 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 13.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 50.40 TWD per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the 40.15 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 15.05 TWD, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 31.38 TWD (bear) to 55.97 TWD (bull), the price of 40.15 TWD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Union Insurance Co Ltd reported revenue of 10.5B TWD in FY2025 versus 8.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0B TWD in FY2025, compounding +10.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 9.0B TWD (≈ $283M) · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) 4.64 TWD · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 10.0% · Return on equity 16.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −12%, 2816 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 31.38 TWDFair Value 35.49 TWDBull 55.97 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.31 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8% vs 15%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−12% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Union Insurance Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2816
Frequently asked questions
Is Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 35.49 TWD versus a price of 40.15 TWD, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2816?
Our model-based fair value for Union Insurance Co Ltd is 35.49 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 40.15 TWD.
What is the quality score of 2816?
Union Insurance Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 35.49 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 31.38 TWD, optimistic scenario 55.97 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Union Insurance Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 35.49 TWD, about −12% upside versus a price of 40.15 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 31.38 TWD, optimistic scenario 55.97 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
Union Insurance Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.5B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Union Insurance Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Union Insurance Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.74% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Union Insurance Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -17.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2816 use?
Our models discount Union Insurance Co Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Union Insurance Co Ltd that is -17.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Union Insurance Co Ltd grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies -17.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Union Insurance Co Ltd (-17.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.47 %: that much free cash flow Union Insurance Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Union Insurance Co Ltd it is 35.49 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 40.15 TWD. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Union Insurance Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2816 trades above its calculated fair value: price 40.15 TWD, fair value 35.49 TWD, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2816?
No. The price is what the market pays today (40.15 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (35.49 TWD). For Union Insurance Co Ltd the two are 4.66 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Union Insurance Co Ltd worth?
The market values Union Insurance Co Ltd at about 9.0B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 40.15 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 35.49 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2816?
Our models span a range for Union Insurance Co Ltd: cautious scenario 31.38 TWD, base 35.49 TWD, optimistic 55.97 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 40.15 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2816?
Union Insurance Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 35.49 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
Balance-sheet figures for Union Insurance Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2816 from its 52-week high?
Union Insurance Co Ltd trades at 40.15 TWD, about 2% below its 52-week high of 40.95 TWD and 59% above the low of 25.28 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 35.49 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Union Insurance Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Union Insurance Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 40.15 TWD, calculated fair value 35.49 TWD (−12%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2816 calculated?
We run Union Insurance Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 35.49 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Union Insurance Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 40.15 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 35.49 TWD, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Union Insurance Co Ltd right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816) come from?
Earnings per share at Union Insurance Co Ltd grew +14.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +9.3 %, tax rate −2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Union Insurance Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
The market capitalisation of Union Insurance Co Ltd is 9.0B TWD (≈ $283M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Union Insurance Co Ltd is 0.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
Earnings per share at Union Insurance Co Ltd are 4.64 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
The dividend yield of Union Insurance Co Ltd is 3.7% (payout 32.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
The net margin of Union Insurance Co Ltd is 10.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Union Insurance Co Ltd is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Union Insurance Co Ltd is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
The operating margin of Union Insurance Co Ltd is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
Revenue at Union Insurance Co Ltd is growing +14.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816)?
Earnings per share at Union Insurance Co Ltd are growing +222% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Union Insurance Co Ltd (2816) hold?
Union Insurance Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 3.3B TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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