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Guangdong PAK Corporation (300625) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.8B CNY

GP Guangdong PAK Corporation 300625 · SHE
Price¥9.62
Fair Value¥3.39
Upside-64.8%
Quality49/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -3.0% net margin
generates free cash flow
2.52% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/11)
Narrow moat 14/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥2.92 – ¥3.86 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 9, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 32 days ago

Share price +5.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 65% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥13.72 ¥8.41 Fair Value ¥3.39 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥8.41 – ¥13.72 · fair‑value band ¥2.92 – ¥3.86 · the ¥9.62 price screens above the ¥3.39 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 9, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Guangdong PAK Corporation (300625) currently trades at ¥9.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.39, implying the stock looks roughly 64.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong PAK Corporation generated revenue of 1.8B CNY at a net margin of -3.0%. Revenue declined 6.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 420M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.92 (bear case) to ¥3.86 (bull case); at ¥9.62, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -65%, 300625 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥2.53 ¥3.01 ¥3.81 72
Gordon GGM ¥2.64 ¥2.88 ¥3.24 70
Rev-Margin DCF ¥2.39 ¥3.00 ¥3.75 67
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥2.47 ¥2.97 ¥3.87 38
5Y Revenue Exit ¥2.39 ¥2.97 ¥3.81 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥2.38 ¥2.95 ¥3.70 41
10Y Revenue Exit ¥2.38 ¥2.81 ¥3.26 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥2.40 ¥2.79 ¥3.20 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.64 ¥2.88 ¥3.24 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.64 ¥3.27 ¥4.12 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥2.52 ¥2.99 ¥3.46 54
EV/Revenue ¥2.45 ¥3.02 ¥3.60 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.50 ¥4.69 ¥7.00 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥2.53 ¥3.01 ¥3.81 72
Rev-Margin DCF ¥2.39 ¥3.00 ¥3.75 67

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥4.69) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.88). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.8B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -6.9%
Net margin -3.0%
Return on equity -2.7%
Free cash flow 41.2M CNY FY2025
Operating margin -11.8%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.1900
Dividend yield 2.5%
EPS growth (YoY) -32.1%
Net cash 420M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 23
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guangdong PAK Corporation Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of semiconductor lighting products and lighting control products in China. It offers commercial, industrial, home, outdoor, smart, and project lightings; light source and electric gear; and ventilation fans, bathroom heaters, ceiling fans, integrated ceilings, and lamps.

Full company description

Guangdong PAK Corporation Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of semiconductor lighting products and lighting control products in China. It offers commercial, industrial, home, outdoor, smart, and project lightings; light source and electric gear; and ventilation fans, bathroom heaters, ceiling fans, integrated ceilings, and lamps. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangdong PAK Corporation reported revenue of ¥1.8B in FY2025 versus ¥2.7B in FY2021, a compound −9.6%/yr. Reported net income was −¥43.5M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 18/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.8B CNY
Latest YoY
−13.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.1%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.8%
Revenue −9.6%/yr
FY21 ¥2.7B
FY22 ¥2.3B
FY23 ¥2.4B
FY24 ¥2.1B
FY25 ¥1.8B
Net income
FY21 ¥26.4M
FY22 ¥95.2M
FY23 ¥205M
FY24 ¥48.1M
FY25 −¥43.5M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) −7.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share −1.2 pp

of which total revenue +2.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.7 pp

EBIT margin −7.2 pp
Tax rate +1.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

300625 screens 65% overvalued. Compare with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong PAK Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300625

Peer Group

Electrical Equipment & Parts · 526 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −65% · Below median
Return on assets -2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -12% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.21× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.23× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 10.0× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 57
PAST 0 · sector 26
HEALTH 0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 50 · sector 18

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 9, 2026).

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WEG S.A WEGE3 13,210 ARS 7,948 ARS -40%
Sungrow Power Supply Co 300274 ¥114.79 ¥123.83 +8%
Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co 300124 ¥63.43 ¥33.04 -48%
HD Hyundai Electric Co 267260 823,000 KRW 371,133 KRW -55%
LS ELECTRIC Co 010120 190,000 KRW 31,517 KRW -83%
Sieyuan Electric Co 002028 ¥151.73 ¥71.69 -53%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guangdong PAK Corporation (300625) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.39 versus a price of ¥9.62, about −65% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300625?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong PAK Corporation is ¥3.39 (as of Jul 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥9.62.
What is the quality score of 300625?
Guangdong PAK Corporation has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guangdong PAK Corporation (300625)?
Guangdong PAK Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 300625?
The net profit margin of Guangdong PAK Corporation is about -3.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guangdong PAK Corporation pay a dividend?
Guangdong PAK Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.52% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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