GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd HK$1.17, price HK$0.75, upside +56.4%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5800 – HK$3.65 · fair‑value band HK$0.8415 – HK$1.50 · the HK$0.7450 price screens below the HK$1.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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GCL Technology Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafers products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Solar Material Business and Solar Farm Business segments.
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GCL Technology Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafers products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Solar Material Business and Solar Farm Business segments. The company manufactures and sells polysilicon and wafer products to companies operating in the solar industry; and operates and manages solar farms located in the United States and the People's Republic of China. It is also involved in the manufacture and sale of ingot; sale of electricity; trading of wafer; research and development, and sales of electronic special materials; construction and sale of solar farm projects; and provision of equity investment, investment management, and asset management, as well as business management, real estate development, and real estate consulting services. The company was formerly known as GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited and changed its name to GCL Technology Holdings Limited in April 2022. GCL Technology Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.
Stock analysis
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800) currently trades at HK$0.7450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.17, implying the stock looks roughly 36.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 89/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.8415 (bear) to HK$1.50 (bull), the price of HK$0.7450 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 14.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 16.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.8%/yr. Reported net income was −2.9B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$24.5B (≈ $3.1B) · P/S ratio 1.63 · Net margin −19.9% · Return on equity −7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% · Operating margin −28.6% · Revenue (TTM) 14.5B CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) +0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 56%, 3800 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.8415Fair Value HK$1.17Bull HK$1.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.4/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.5% (2020) → −12.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (17 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Solar · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Below median
Fair Value upside+56.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−21.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−28.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Solar median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3800
Frequently asked questions
Is GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.17 versus a price of HK$0.7450, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3800?
Our model-based fair value for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is HK$1.17 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.7450.
What is the quality score of 3800?
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.17 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.8415, optimistic scenario HK$1.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.17, about +56% upside versus a price of HK$0.7450 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.8415, optimistic scenario HK$1.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 14.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.17 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of HK$0.7450. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 3800 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.7450, fair value HK$1.17, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3800?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.7450); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.17). For GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.4200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd at about HK$24.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.7450; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3800?
Our models span a range for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.8415, base HK$1.17, optimistic HK$1.50 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price HK$0.7450). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 3800?
The PEG ratio of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is 9.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
Balance-sheet figures for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity −7.7%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3800 from its 52-week high?
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.7450, about 49% below its 52-week high of HK$1.47 and 28% above the low of HK$0.5800 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value First Solar, Inc, Nextpower Inc, Waaree Energies Limited, Tongwei Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price HK$0.7450, calculated fair value HK$1.17 (+56%), Quality Score 33/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3800 calculated?
We run GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.7450. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.17, about +56% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.8415). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
The market capitalisation of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is HK$24.5B (≈ $3.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is 1.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
The net margin of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is −19.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is −7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
The operating margin of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is −28.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
Revenue at GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is growing +0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800)?
Earnings per share at GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd are growing −19.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800) generate?
The free cash flow of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is −5.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800) carry?
The net debt of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is 4.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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