Tongwei Co Ltd (600438) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tongwei Co Ltd stock ¥12.13, price ¥12.39, that is 2.1% below the price, quality 29 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥10.48 – ¥62.55 · fair‑value band ¥5.88 – ¥18.38 · the ¥12.39 price screens above the ¥12.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Tongwei Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sales of industrial silicon and high-purity crystalline silicon for solar energy, chemical products, silicon rods, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules in China and internationally.
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It is involved in the generation of electricity and related businesses; production and sale of feed, etc.; and aquaculture, seedling cultivation, food processing, etc.
The company also engages in technical services; power supply; photovoltaic new energy; farming; sale of battery cell and components; and photovoltaic power operation. Tongwei Co., Ltd was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.
Stock analysis
Tongwei Co Ltd (600438) currently trades at ¥12.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.13, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.1%).
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 85/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: ¥5.88 (bear) to ¥18.38 (bull), the price of ¥12.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tongwei Co Ltd reported revenue of 84.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 64.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was −9.6B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 55.8B CNY (≈ $8.4B) Mid · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) ¥−2.45 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin −14.2% · Return on equity −27.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3% · Operating margin 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at −2%, 600438 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥5.88Fair Value ¥12.13Bull¥18.38
Price ¥12.39 · Downside -2.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.7% (2020) → −4.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
AI conclusion: Scale in polysilicon and cells plus downstream module expansion forms the main strength, yet persistent negative margins and high leverage remain the core weakness in a commoditized sector.
Main risk: Ongoing industry overcapacity continues to exert severe pricing pressure and would directly erode margins across polysilicon, cells and modules.
Tongwei has now shipped over 1 GW of modules cumulatively through its key partnership, showing concrete progress in building the downstream business. At the same time first-half results reflected a large loss as revenues declined amid ongoing industry overcapacity. Will its scale in polysilicon and cells plus module expansion create more benefit from any supply-side improvement than it risks from continued pricing pressure?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Solar · 97 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−2.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−5.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−14.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.74× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Solar median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tongwei Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600438
Frequently asked questions
Is Tongwei Co Ltd (600438) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥12.13 versus a price of ¥12.39, about 2% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 600438?
Our model-based fair value for Tongwei Co Ltd is ¥12.13 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥12.39.
What is the quality score of 600438?
Tongwei Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥12.13 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.88, optimistic scenario ¥18.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tongwei Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥12.13, about 2% lower versus a price of ¥12.39 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥5.88, optimistic scenario ¥18.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
Tongwei Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 77.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Tongwei Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Tongwei Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.11% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tongwei Co Ltd it is ¥12.13 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of ¥12.39. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tongwei Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 600438 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥12.39, fair value ¥12.13, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600438?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥12.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥12.13). For Tongwei Co Ltd the two are ¥0.2600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tongwei Co Ltd worth?
The market values Tongwei Co Ltd at about 55.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is ¥12.39; our models calculate a fair value of ¥12.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600438?
Our models span a range for Tongwei Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.88, base ¥12.13, optimistic ¥18.38 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price ¥12.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 600438?
The PEG ratio of Tongwei Co Ltd is 2.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tongwei Co Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −27.2%, debt of 1.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600438 from its 52-week high?
Tongwei Co Ltd trades at ¥12.39, about 54% below its 52-week high of ¥27.16 and 18% above the low of ¥10.48 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥12.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tongwei Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value First Solar, Inc, Nextpower Inc, Waaree Energies Limited, Jinko Solar Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tongwei Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price ¥12.39, calculated fair value ¥12.13 (−2%), Quality Score 29/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600438 calculated?
We run Tongwei Co Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥12.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Tongwei Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥12.39. Our model-based fair value is ¥12.13, about 2% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tongwei Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥5.88 to ¥18.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438) come from?
Earnings per share at Tongwei Co Ltd grew +40.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.0 %, EBIT margin +26.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tongwei Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
The market capitalisation of Tongwei Co Ltd is 55.8B CNY (≈ $8.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tongwei Co Ltd is 0.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
Earnings per share at Tongwei Co Ltd are ¥−2.45. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
The dividend yield of Tongwei Co Ltd is 4.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
The net margin of Tongwei Co Ltd is −14.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tongwei Co Ltd is −27.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tongwei Co Ltd is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
The operating margin of Tongwei Co Ltd is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
Revenue at Tongwei Co Ltd is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tongwei Co Ltd (600438)?
Earnings per share at Tongwei Co Ltd are growing −68.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tongwei Co Ltd (600438) generate?
The free cash flow of Tongwei Co Ltd is −11.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tongwei Co Ltd (600438) carry?
The net debt of Tongwei Co Ltd is 57.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 4, 2026