Tongwei Co (600438) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 61.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥47.50 to ¥12.13 (−74.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (¥5.88 to ¥18.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥10.48 – ¥62.55 · fair‑value band ¥5.88 – ¥18.38 · the ¥12.31 price screens above the ¥12.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Tongwei Co (600438) currently trades at ¥12.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.13, implying the stock looks roughly 1.5% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tongwei Co generated revenue of 80.3B CNY at a net margin of -11.7%. Revenue declined 23.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -20.9%. Net debt stands at 57.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.88 (bear case) to ¥18.38 (bull case); at ¥12.31, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -1%, 600438 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥13.84) versus Asset-Based (¥5.79). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tongwei Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sales of industrial silicon and high-purity crystalline silicon for solar energy, chemical products, silicon rods, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules in China and internationally.
Full company description
Tongwei Co.,Ltd engages in the production and sales of industrial silicon and high-purity crystalline silicon for solar energy, chemical products, silicon rods, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules in China and internationally. It is involved in the generation of electricity and related businesses; production and sale of feed, etc.; and aquaculture, seedling cultivation, food processing, etc. The company also engages in technical services; power supply; photovoltaic new energy; farming; sale of battery cell and components; and photovoltaic power operation. Tongwei Co., Ltd was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Chengdu, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tongwei Co reported revenue of ¥84.1B in FY2025 versus ¥64.8B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was −¥9.6B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Solar · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Solar median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Solar, Inc FSLR | $221.03 | $284.45 | +29% |
| Nextpower Inc NXT | $111.50 | $69.61 | -38% |
| Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER | ₹2,923 | ₹3,613 | +24% |
| Jinko Solar Co 688223 | ¥4.39 | ¥4.75 | +8% |
| Hengdian Group 002056 | ¥21.64 | ¥22.76 | +5% |
| CSI Solar Co 688472 | ¥10.11 | ¥7.01 | -31% |
| Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH | $44.83 | $22.20 | -50% |
| Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE | ₹1,086 | ₹912.32 | -16% |
| Trina Solar Co 688599 | ¥12.98 | ¥7.97 | -39% |
| JA Solar Technology Co 002459 | ¥7.06 | ¥3.32 | -53% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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