3816 (3816) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · Market cap HK$1.2B

3 3816 3816 · HK

PriceHK$1.93

Fair ValueHK$1.56

Upside-19.2%

Quality64/100

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Evidence: Medium Range HK$0.9300 – HK$2.29

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated today

Share price −19.9% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$0.2705 – HK$3.26 · fair‑value band HK$0.9300 – HK$2.29 · the HK$1.93 price screens above the HK$1.56 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

3816 (3816) currently trades at HK$1.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.56 — implying the stock looks roughly 19.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, 3816 generated revenue of HK$1.0B at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 52.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$15.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.0B

Revenue growth (YoY) +52.7%

Net margin 7.8%

Return on equity 12.8%

Free cash flow −HK$33.2M FY2025

P/E ratio 13.8

More key figures

Operating margin 11.0%

EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700

EPS growth (YoY) +255%

Net cash HK$15.2M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

3816 reported revenue of HK$1.0B in FY2026 versus HK$612M in FY2022, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$81.6M in FY2026.

Revenue +14.2%/yr

FY22 HK$612M

FY23 HK$605M

FY24 HK$590M

FY25 HK$758M

FY26 HK$1.0B

Net income

FY22 −HK$48.2M

FY23 HK$22.7M

FY24 HK$23.2M

FY25 HK$36.3M

FY26 HK$81.6M

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Similar stocks

6 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
ATI Inc ATI	$204.09	$36.39	-82%
Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS	$492.62	$82.57	-83%
Mueller Industries, Inc MLI	$139.51	$120.61	-14%
Aurubis AG NDA	€216.20	€116.94	-46%
Commercial Metals Company CMC	$73.57	$28.97	-61%
China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039	¥8.98	¥6.57	-27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 3816 (3816) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.56 versus a price of HK$1.93 — about −19% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 3816?

Our model-based fair value for 3816 is HK$1.56 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.93.

What is the quality score of 3816?

3816 has a Quality Score of 64/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 3816 (3816)?

3816 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.0B (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 3816?

The net profit margin of 3816 is about 7.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.