China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of China Starch Holdings Ltd HK$0.69, price HK$0.18, upside +281.2%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1038 – HK$0.3089 · fair‑value band HK$0.5800 – HK$0.7600 · the HK$0.1810 price screens below the HK$0.6900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Starch Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells cornstarch, lysine, starch-based sweeteners, modified starch, and ancillary corn-based and corn-refined products in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Upstream Products, and Fermented and Downstream Products.
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China Starch Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells cornstarch, lysine, starch-based sweeteners, modified starch, and ancillary corn-based and corn-refined products in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two segments, Upstream Products, and Fermented and Downstream Products. It also researches, develops, manufactures, and sells, cornstarch, glucose, maltose, dextrin, animal feed additives, food-grade enzymes, biobased materials, , amino acids, lactate acid esters, and related products. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. China Starch Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Merry Boom Group Limited.
Stock analysis
China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838) currently trades at HK$0.1810, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6900, implying the stock looks roughly 73.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.7700 per share, and 15 of the 17 models we run sit above the HK$0.1810 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.1500, and 2 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.5800 (bear) to HK$0.7600 (bull), the price of HK$0.1810 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
China Starch Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 10.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 11.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.6%/yr. Reported net income was 185M CNY in FY2025, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$1.1B (≈ $138M) · P/E ratio 3.9 · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 281%, 3838 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.5800Fair Value HK$0.6900Bull HK$0.7600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0156 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.25/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.4% vs 6.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
Compare China Starch Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 657 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.2% · Below median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−0.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−14.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6900 versus a price of HK$0.1810, about +281% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3838?
Our model-based fair value for China Starch Holdings Ltd is HK$0.6900 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1810.
What is the quality score of 3838?
China Starch Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.6900 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.5800, optimistic scenario HK$0.7600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Starch Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.6900, about +281% upside versus a price of HK$0.1810 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.5800, optimistic scenario HK$0.7600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
China Starch Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Starch Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
China Starch Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Starch Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.6900 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1810. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Starch Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 3838 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1810, fair value HK$0.6900, a gap of about +281% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 3838?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1810); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.6900). For China Starch Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.5090 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Starch Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values China Starch Holdings Ltd at about HK$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1810; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.6900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 3838?
Our models span a range for China Starch Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.5800, base HK$0.6900, optimistic HK$0.7600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$0.1810). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 3838?
China Starch Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.6900 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 3838?
The PEG ratio of China Starch Holdings Ltd is 0.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Starch Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 3838 from its 52-week high?
China Starch Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.1810, about 6% below its 52-week high of HK$0.1919 and 23% above the low of HK$0.1470 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.6900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Starch Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Starch Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$0.1810, calculated fair value HK$0.6900 (+281%), Quality Score 50/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 3838 calculated?
We run China Starch Holdings Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.6900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. China Starch Holdings Ltd currently trades 281 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was HK$0.1810. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.6900, about +281% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Starch Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.5800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838) come from?
Earnings per share at China Starch Holdings Ltd grew +8.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.1 %, EBIT margin +0.0 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Starch Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
The market capitalisation of China Starch Holdings Ltd is HK$1.1B (≈ $138M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Starch Holdings Ltd is 0.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
Earnings per share at China Starch Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
The dividend yield of China Starch Holdings Ltd is 5.0% (payout 30.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
The net margin of China Starch Holdings Ltd is 1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Starch Holdings Ltd is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Starch Holdings Ltd is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
The operating margin of China Starch Holdings Ltd is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
Revenue at China Starch Holdings Ltd is growing −14.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838)?
Earnings per share at China Starch Holdings Ltd are growing −87.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838) generate?
The free cash flow of China Starch Holdings Ltd is −36.6M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does China Starch Holdings Ltd (3838) hold?
China Starch Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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