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Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd (3991) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · HK · Market cap HK$1.0B

CJ Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd 3991 · HK
PriceHK$0.6450
Fair ValueHK$0.6352
Upside-1.5%
Quality66/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 0.9% net margin
generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/12)
Narrow moat 36/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.4764 – HK$0.7932 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.4543 to HK$0.6352 (+39.8%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −10.4% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from HK$0.4764 (bear) to HK$0.7932 (bull), base HK$0.6352. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 66/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$1.16 HK$0.3526 Fair Value HK$0.6352 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.3526 – HK$1.16 · fair‑value band HK$0.4764 – HK$0.7932 · the HK$0.6450 price screens above the HK$0.6352 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd (3991) currently trades at HK$0.6450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6352, implying the stock looks roughly 1.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$43.8B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue grew 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$2.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.4764 (bear case) to HK$0.7932 (bull case); at HK$0.6450, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at -2%, 3991 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$2.01 HK$2.25 HK$3.60 76
Growth DCF HK$74.57 HK$126.60 HK$208.37 72
Gordon GGM HK$0.6900 HK$1.24 HK$1.70 70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$79.39 HK$114.45 HK$219.22 38
Owner Earnings HK$6.80 HK$10.73 HK$18.02 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$30.37 HK$37.45 HK$51.23 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$31.55 HK$39.84 HK$55.59 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$31.63 HK$46.73 HK$63.92 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$46.93 HK$70.11 HK$76.12 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$47.86 HK$72.43 HK$105.93 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$47.91 HK$72.57 HK$105.60 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$1.87 HK$13.07 HK$18.34 54
Lynch FV HK$6.75 HK$9.64 HK$12.54 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$6.75 HK$9.64 HK$12.54 46
EPV HK$5.98 HK$6.37 HK$6.69 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.6900 HK$1.24 HK$1.70 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.6900 HK$1.13 HK$1.32 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$5.79 HK$7.72 HK$9.64 63
P/S Multiple HK$3.51 HK$4.68 HK$5.86 58
P/B Multiple HK$3.51 HK$4.68 HK$5.86 55
EV/EBIT HK$10.47 HK$12.91 HK$15.36 53
EV/EBITDA HK$8.83 HK$10.72 HK$12.61 54
EV/Revenue HK$6.85 HK$8.44 HK$10.02 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.15 HK$1.55 HK$2.31 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$74.57 HK$126.60 HK$208.37 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$32.41 HK$42.56 HK$64.75 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.01 HK$2.25 HK$3.60 76
ROIC Compounder HK$5.98 HK$6.37 HK$6.69 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$9.75 HK$13.93 HK$18.11 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$46.73) versus Dividend Discount (HK$1.13). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$43.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.5%
Net margin 0.9%
Return on equity 12.7%
Free cash flow HK$8.1B FY2025
P/E ratio 4.4 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 1.3%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0700
EPS growth (YoY) +2.3%
Net cash HK$2.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 87
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 6
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Changhong Jiahua Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, distributes information and communication technology (ICT) consumer products, ICT corporate products, and other products in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

Full company description

Changhong Jiahua Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, distributes information and communication technology (ICT) consumer products, ICT corporate products, and other products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through three segments: ICT consumer product distribution business; ICT corporate product distribution business; and Other businesses segments. The company distributes personal computers, digital products, and IT accessories; storage products, minicomputers, networking products, personal computer servers, intelligent building management system products, and unified communication and contact center products; smartphones. It also develops own brand products, such as intelligent terminals; sells warranty packages; and provides professional integrated ICT solutions and services. Changhong Jiahua Holdings Limited was formerly known as China Data Broadcasting Holdings Limited and changed its name to Changhong Jiahua Holdings Limited in January 2013. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Changhong Jiahua Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Fit Generation Holding Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$43.8B in FY2025 versus HK$44.6B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$401M in FY2025, compounding −0.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$43.8B
Latest YoY
+9.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.7%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+34.8%
Revenue −0.4%/yr
FY21 HK$44.6B
FY22 HK$38.3B
FY23 HK$37.2B
FY24 HK$40.0B
FY25 HK$43.8B
Net income −0.8%/yr
FY21 HK$413M
FY22 HK$366M
FY23 HK$361M
FY24 HK$379M
FY25 HK$401M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +8.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.6 pp

of which total revenue +8.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp

EBIT margin −2.2 pp
Tax rate +2.4 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.6352 −2%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3991

Peer Group

Electronics & Computer Distribution · 156 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −1% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth 10% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 12.4% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Electronics & Computer Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.31× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 32 · sector 28
FUTURE 48 · sector 64
PAST 51 · sector 34
HEALTH 0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co. 002402 ¥21.59 ¥20.12 -7%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd (3991) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6352 versus a price of HK$0.6450, about −2% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 3991?
Our model-based fair value for Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd is HK$0.6352 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.6450.
What is the quality score of 3991?
Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd (3991)?
Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$43.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3991?
The net profit margin of Changhong Jiahua Holdings Ltd is about 0.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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