Nirlon Limited (500307) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Nirlon Limited ₹499, price ₹602, upside -17.1%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹201.83 – ₹650.00 · fair‑value band ₹290.55 – ₹692.54 · the ₹602.05 price screens above the ₹499.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Nirlon Limited engages in the development and management of an industrial park. It is involved in the development of the Nirlon Knowledge Park, an industrial/information technology park located in Goregaon, Mumbai. The company was incorporated in 1958 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
Nirlon Limited (500307) currently trades at ₹602.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹499.10, 17.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹644.03 per share, and 6 of the 14 models we run sit above the ₹602.05 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹178.47, and 8 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹290.55 (bear) to ₹692.54 (bull), the price of ₹602.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Financial sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nirlon Limited reported revenue of ₹6.7B in FY2026 versus ₹3.8B in FY2022, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was ₹3.5B in FY2026, compounding +32.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹21.3B (≈ $221M) · P/E ratio 18.8 · P/S ratio 9.70 · EPS (TTM) ₹12.90 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 51.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.8% · Operating margin 57.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −17%, 500307 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹290.55Fair Value ₹499.10Bull ₹692.54
Price ₹602.05 · Upside -17.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹6.22 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.8% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+25.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.6% vs 21.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.55% → 70%
2026 sits 68% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Property Management” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Real Estate · 1844 stocks
Beats the sector median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)37.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)57.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nirlon Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/500307
Frequently asked questions
Is Nirlon Limited (500307) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹499.10 versus a price of ₹602.05, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 500307?
Our model-based fair value for Nirlon Limited is ₹499.10 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹602.05.
What is the quality score of 500307?
Nirlon Limited has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nirlon Limited (500307)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹499.10 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹290.55, optimistic scenario ₹692.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nirlon Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹499.10, about −17% upside versus a price of ₹602.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹290.55, optimistic scenario ₹692.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
Nirlon Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹3.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Nirlon Limited pay a dividend?
Nirlon Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.12% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nirlon Limited (500307)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nirlon Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +12.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.1 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 500307 use?
Our models discount Nirlon Limited at 13.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nirlon Limited that is +12.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nirlon Limited (500307) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nirlon Limited grew +16.1 % a year. The price currently implies +12.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.00 %: that much free cash flow Nirlon Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nirlon Limited it is ₹499.10 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of ₹602.05. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nirlon Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 500307 trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹602.05, fair value ₹499.10, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 500307?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹602.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹499.10). For Nirlon Limited the two are ₹102.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nirlon Limited worth?
The market values Nirlon Limited at about ₹21.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is ₹602.05; our models calculate a fair value of ₹499.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 500307?
Our models span a range for Nirlon Limited: cautious scenario ₹290.55, base ₹499.10, optimistic ₹692.54 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price ₹602.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 500307?
Nirlon Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹499.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.6, P/S 6.8, EV/EBITDA 14.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nirlon Limited (as of Oct 3, 2026): debt of 2.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 500307 from its 52-week high?
Nirlon Limited trades at ₹602.05, about 7% below its 52-week high of ₹650.00 and 27% above the low of ₹473.85 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹499.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nirlon Limited?
From the same area (Financial) we also value ANSALBU, GOTHIPL, Tirupati Sarjan Limited, Industrial & Prudential Investment Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nirlon Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price ₹602.05, calculated fair value ₹499.10 (−17%), Quality Score 73/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 500307 calculated?
We run Nirlon Limited through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹499.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Nirlon Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹602.05. Our model-based fair value is ₹499.10, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nirlon Limited right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range (₹290.55 to ₹692.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Nirlon Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
The market capitalisation of Nirlon Limited is ₹21.3B (≈ $221M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nirlon Limited is 9.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
Earnings per share at Nirlon Limited are ₹12.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
The dividend yield of Nirlon Limited is 0.1% (payout 5.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
The net margin of Nirlon Limited is 51.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nirlon Limited is 13.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nirlon Limited (500307)?
The operating margin of Nirlon Limited is 57.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nirlon Limited (500307)?
Revenue at Nirlon Limited is growing +5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nirlon Limited (500307)?
Earnings per share at Nirlon Limited are growing +26.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nirlon Limited (500307) carry?
The net debt of Nirlon Limited is ₹11.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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