Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group (600648) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 12.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +12.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 29% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from ¥8.78 (bear) to ¥14.64 (bull), base ¥11.70. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 29/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.99 – ¥14.73 · fair‑value band ¥8.78 – ¥14.64 · the ¥9.04 price screens below the ¥11.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.
Analysis
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group (600648) currently trades at ¥9.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.70, implying the stock looks roughly 29.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group generated revenue of 6.0B CNY at a net margin of 15.3%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.2%. Net debt stands at 9.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥8.78 (bear case) to ¥14.64 (bull case); at ¥9.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at 29%, 600648 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥19.33) versus Economic Profit (¥6.43). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. engages in the trade and operation business in China. The company is also involved in real estate development and operation; entrepot trade, bonded warehousing, international freight forwarding within bonded zones; consulting and agency services for foreign investment projects; and parking fee collection …
Full company description
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. engages in the trade and operation business in China. The company is also involved in real estate development and operation; entrepot trade, bonded warehousing, international freight forwarding within bonded zones; consulting and agency services for foreign investment projects; and parking fee collection business. In addition, it provides international trade and economic consulting; international freight forwarding services for import and export goods, including cargo solicitation, booking, warehousing, transshipment, container loading and unloading, settlement of freight and miscellaneous charges, customs declaration, inspection declaration, insurance, and related short-distance transportation services; consulting services; investment management; construction engineering management; property management; real estate, business, and enterprise management consulting; marketing planning; and conference and exhibition services. Further, it manufactures and sells daily chemical products; and sells properties. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. in September 2015. Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group reported revenue of ¥6.0B in FY2025 versus ¥8.9B in FY2021, a compound −9.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥939M in FY2025, compounding +0.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Specialty Business Services · 255 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation CTAS | $206.25 | $95.30 | -54% |
| RELX PLC RELX | $33.70 | $32.49 | -4% |
| Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI | C$133.87 | C$70.40 | -47% |
| Copart, Inc CPRT | $27.61 | $28.59 | +4% |
| Global Payments Inc GPN | $80.49 | $69.67 | -13% |
| RB Global, Inc RBA | C$156.43 | C$49.14 | -69% |
| Brambles Limited BXB | A$18.79 | A$12.28 | -35% |
| UL Solutions Inc ULS | $87.76 | $33.62 | -62% |
| Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL | €62.56 | €103.99 | +66% |
| Aramark ARMK | $56.74 | $13.73 | -76% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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