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Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group (600648) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 12.3B CNY

SW Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group 600648 · SHG
Price¥9.04
Fair Value¥11.70
Upside+29.5%
Quality29/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 15.3% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
3.86% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: High Range ¥8.78 – ¥14.64 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +12.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 29% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from ¥8.78 (bear) to ¥14.64 (bull), base ¥11.70. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 29/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥14.73 ¥7.99 Fair Value ¥11.70 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥7.99 – ¥14.73 · fair‑value band ¥8.78 – ¥14.64 · the ¥9.04 price screens below the ¥11.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group (600648) currently trades at ¥9.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.70, implying the stock looks roughly 29.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group generated revenue of 6.0B CNY at a net margin of 15.3%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.2%. Net debt stands at 9.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥8.78 (bear case) to ¥14.64 (bull case); at ¥9.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at 29%, 600648 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥10.93 ¥11.36 ¥11.54 76
ROIC Compounder ¥5.16 ¥6.43 ¥7.55 72
Gordon GGM ¥8.11 ¥16.86 ¥26.75 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥7.73 ¥18.47 ¥39.21 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥5.51 ¥32.58 ¥45.37 54
Lynch FV ¥9.25 ¥13.22 ¥17.18 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥9.25 ¥13.22 ¥17.18 46
EPV ¥5.16 ¥6.43 ¥7.55 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥8.11 ¥16.86 ¥26.75 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥8.11 ¥14.22 ¥17.70 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥12.76 ¥17.02 ¥21.27 63
P/S Multiple ¥7.72 ¥10.30 ¥12.87 58
P/B Multiple ¥10.33 ¥13.77 ¥17.22 55
EV/EBIT ¥11.92 ¥16.72 ¥21.51 53
EV/EBITDA ¥16.30 ¥22.55 ¥28.81 54
EV/Revenue ¥4.01 ¥6.79 ¥9.57 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥6.88 ¥9.21 ¥13.75 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥10.93 ¥11.36 ¥11.54 76
ROIC Compounder ¥5.16 ¥6.43 ¥7.55 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥13.53 ¥19.33 ¥25.13 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥19.33) versus Economic Profit (¥6.43). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 6.0B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -0.5%
Net margin 15.3%
Return on equity 6.2%
Free cash flow −1.1B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 12.7
More key figures
Operating margin 10.9%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.7100
Dividend yield 3.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -69.6%
Net debt 9.6B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 9
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. engages in the trade and operation business in China. The company is also involved in real estate development and operation; entrepot trade, bonded warehousing, international freight forwarding within bonded zones; consulting and agency services for foreign investment projects; and parking fee collection …

Full company description

Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. engages in the trade and operation business in China. The company is also involved in real estate development and operation; entrepot trade, bonded warehousing, international freight forwarding within bonded zones; consulting and agency services for foreign investment projects; and parking fee collection business. In addition, it provides international trade and economic consulting; international freight forwarding services for import and export goods, including cargo solicitation, booking, warehousing, transshipment, container loading and unloading, settlement of freight and miscellaneous charges, customs declaration, inspection declaration, insurance, and related short-distance transportation services; consulting services; investment management; construction engineering management; property management; real estate, business, and enterprise management consulting; marketing planning; and conference and exhibition services. Further, it manufactures and sells daily chemical products; and sells properties. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. in September 2015. Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group reported revenue of ¥6.0B in FY2025 versus ¥8.9B in FY2021, a compound −9.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥939M in FY2025, compounding +0.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
6.0B CNY
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−6.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−4.3%
Avg. growth/yr (31Y)
+7.6%
Revenue −9.5%/yr
FY21 ¥8.9B
FY22 ¥9.2B
FY23 ¥7.7B
FY24 ¥7.2B
FY25 ¥6.0B
Net income +0.1%/yr
FY21 ¥937M
FY22 ¥1.2B
FY23 ¥929M
FY24 ¥951M
FY25 ¥939M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600648

Peer Group

Specialty Business Services · 255 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +30% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Revenue growth -1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.9% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.62× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.77× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.06× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.9× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 73 · sector 24
FUTURE 0 · sector 25
PAST 25 · sector 33
HEALTH 69 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 77 · sector 54

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Cintas Corporation CTAS $206.25 $95.30 -54%
RELX PLC RELX $33.70 $32.49 -4%
Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI C$133.87 C$70.40 -47%
Copart, Inc CPRT $27.61 $28.59 +4%
Global Payments Inc GPN $80.49 $69.67 -13%
RB Global, Inc RBA C$156.43 C$49.14 -69%
Brambles Limited BXB A$18.79 A$12.28 -35%
UL Solutions Inc ULS $87.76 $33.62 -62%
Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL €62.56 €103.99 +66%
Aramark ARMK $56.74 $13.73 -76%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group (600648) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.70 versus a price of ¥9.04, about +29% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600648?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group is ¥11.70 (as of Aug 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥9.04.
What is the quality score of 600648?
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group (600648)?
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600648?
The net profit margin of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group is about 15.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 15.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group pay a dividend?
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.86% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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