Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A ¥11.68, price ¥9.45, upside +23.6%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.99 – ¥14.73 · fair‑value band ¥8.91 – ¥14.60 · the ¥9.45 price screens below the ¥11.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. engages in the trade and operation business in China.
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Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. engages in the trade and operation business in China. The company is also involved in real estate development and operation; entrepot trade, bonded warehousing, international freight forwarding within bonded zones; consulting and agency services for foreign investment projects; and parking fee collection business. In addition, it provides international trade and economic consulting; international freight forwarding services for import and export goods, including cargo solicitation, booking, warehousing, transshipment, container loading and unloading, settlement of freight and miscellaneous charges, customs declaration, inspection declaration, insurance, and related short-distance transportation services; consulting services; investment management; construction engineering management; property management; real estate, business, and enterprise management consulting; marketing planning; and conference and exhibition services. Further, it manufactures and sells daily chemical products; and sells properties. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. in September 2015. Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648) currently trades at ¥9.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.68, implying the stock looks roughly 19.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥19.33 per share, and 13 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥9.45 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥4.81, and 4 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥8.91 (bear) to ¥14.60 (bull), the price of ¥9.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A reported revenue of 6.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 8.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −9.5%/yr. Reported net income was 939M CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.9B CNY (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 2.00 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.7100 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 15.7% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 24%, 600648 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥8.91Fair Value ¥11.68Bull ¥14.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2633 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.3%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2% vs 1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 22%
Compare Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 248 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+24% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.62× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600648
Frequently asked questions
Is Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.68 versus a price of ¥9.45, about +24% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600648?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A is ¥11.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.45.
What is the quality score of 600648?
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥8.91, optimistic scenario ¥14.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.68, about +24% upside versus a price of ¥9.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥8.91, optimistic scenario ¥14.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A pay a dividend?
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A it is ¥11.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥9.45. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 600648 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥9.45, fair value ¥11.68, a gap of about +24% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600648?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.68). For Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A the two are ¥2.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A worth?
The market values Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A at about 12.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.45; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600648?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A: cautious scenario ¥8.91, base ¥11.68, optimistic ¥14.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥9.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600648?
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥11.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600648 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A trades at ¥9.45, about 17% below its 52-week high of ¥11.43 and 18% above the low of ¥7.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥9.45, calculated fair value ¥11.68 (+24%), Quality Score 29/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600648 calculated?
We run Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥11.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥9.45. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.68, about +24% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A grew +3.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.5 %, EBIT margin +5.0 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A is 12.9B CNY (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A is 2.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A are ¥0.7100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A is 3.7% (payout 49.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
The net margin of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A is 15.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
Revenue at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A are growing −69.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648) generate?
The free cash flow of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A is −1.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A (600648) carry?
The net debt of Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group Co Ltd A is 9.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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