National Agriculture Development Co (6010) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what National Agriculture Development Co is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9.42 SAR – 35.35 SAR · fair‑value band 15.02 SAR – 28.24 SAR · the 14.56 SAR price screens below the 22.93 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
The National Agricultural Development Company engages in the production of agricultural and livestock products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company operates in three segments, Dairy and Foods, Agriculture, and Protein.
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The National Agricultural Development Company engages in the production of agricultural and livestock products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company operates in three segments, Dairy and Foods, Agriculture, and Protein. It is also involved in the reclamation of agricultural land; food processing; and marketing, and distribution of its products. In addition, the company offers milk, cream, and dessert products; cheese, labneh, and butter; and yoghurt and Laban. Further, it provides juices and nectar; chilled, frozen, and fresh red meat, including beef, lamb, and mutton; and vegetables and olive oil. The National Agricultural Development Company was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
National Agriculture Development Co (6010) currently trades at 14.56 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.93 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 36.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 24.17 SAR per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the 14.56 SAR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 8.41 SAR, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 15.02 SAR (bear) to 28.24 SAR (bull), the price of 14.56 SAR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
National Agriculture Development Co reported revenue of 3.5B SAR in FY2025 versus 2.2B SAR in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was 393M SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.4B SAR (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 13.2 · P/S ratio 1.48 · EPS (TTM) 1.10 SAR · Net margin 11.2% · Return on equity 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% · Operating margin 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at 57%, 6010 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 15.02 SARFair Value 22.93 SARBull 28.24 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.7745 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+30.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30% vs 3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 11%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare National Agriculture Development Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 647 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+52% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Agriculture Development Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6010
Frequently asked questions
Is National Agriculture Development Co (6010) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 22.93 SAR versus a price of 14.56 SAR, about +57% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 6010?
Our model-based fair value for National Agriculture Development Co is 22.93 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14.56 SAR.
What is the quality score of 6010?
National Agriculture Development Co has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 22.93 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 15.02 SAR, optimistic scenario 28.24 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Agriculture Development Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 22.93 SAR, about +57% upside versus a price of 14.56 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 15.02 SAR, optimistic scenario 28.24 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
National Agriculture Development Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.5B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Agriculture Development Co would have to grow free cash flow by +6.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.9 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6010 use?
Our models discount National Agriculture Development Co at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.03, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Agriculture Development Co that is +6.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Agriculture Development Co (6010) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National Agriculture Development Co grew +8.9 % a year. The price currently implies +6.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National Agriculture Development Co (6010) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National Agriculture Development Co (+6.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.23 %: that much free cash flow National Agriculture Development Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Agriculture Development Co it is 22.93 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 14.56 SAR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is National Agriculture Development Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 6010 trades below its calculated fair value: price 14.56 SAR, fair value 22.93 SAR, a gap of about +57% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6010?
No. The price is what the market pays today (14.56 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (22.93 SAR). For National Agriculture Development Co the two are 8.37 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Agriculture Development Co worth?
The market values National Agriculture Development Co at about 4.4B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 14.56 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 22.93 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6010?
Our models span a range for National Agriculture Development Co: cautious scenario 15.02 SAR, base 22.93 SAR, optimistic 28.24 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 14.56 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6010?
National Agriculture Development Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 22.93 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Agriculture Development Co (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 7.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6010 from its 52-week high?
National Agriculture Development Co trades at 14.56 SAR, about 36% below its 52-week high of 22.70 SAR and 4% above the low of 14.02 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 22.93 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Agriculture Development Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Nestlé India Limited, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Agriculture Development Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 14.56 SAR, calculated fair value 22.93 SAR (+57%), Quality Score 41/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6010 calculated?
We run National Agriculture Development Co through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 22.93 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. National Agriculture Development Co currently trades 57 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with National Agriculture Development Co right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (15.02 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (15.02 SAR to 28.24 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of National Agriculture Development Co (6010) come from?
Earnings per share at National Agriculture Development Co grew +6.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.5 %, EBIT margin +3.8 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of National Agriculture Development Co
How large is the market capitalisation of National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
The market capitalisation of National Agriculture Development Co is 4.4B SAR (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Agriculture Development Co is 1.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
Earnings per share at National Agriculture Development Co are 1.10 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
The net margin of National Agriculture Development Co is 11.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Agriculture Development Co is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Agriculture Development Co is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
The operating margin of National Agriculture Development Co is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
Revenue at National Agriculture Development Co is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Agriculture Development Co (6010)?
Earnings per share at National Agriculture Development Co are growing −44.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does National Agriculture Development Co (6010) hold?
National Agriculture Development Co holds more cash than debt, 509M SAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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