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Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group (601616) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · CN · Market cap 3.1B CNY

SG Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group 601616 · SHG
Price¥3.67
Fair Value¥1.23
Upside-66.5%
Quality57/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -7.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 13/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥1.17 – ¥1.29 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 10, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated today

Share price +13.6% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 66% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • The models converge in a tight band (¥1.17 to ¥1.29), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥6.17 ¥2.28 Fair Value ¥1.23 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.28 – ¥6.17 · fair‑value band ¥1.17 – ¥1.29 · the ¥3.67 price screens above the ¥1.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.

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Analysis

Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group (601616) currently trades at ¥3.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.23, implying the stock looks roughly 66.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group generated revenue of 810M CNY at a net margin of -7.2%. Revenue grew 26.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 843M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥1.17 (bear case) to ¥1.29 (bull case); at ¥3.67, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -66%, 601616 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥1.44 ¥1.57 ¥1.79 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥1.41 ¥1.57 ¥1.77 74
Gordon GGM ¥0.6200 ¥0.6800 ¥0.7600 70
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥1.43 ¥1.56 ¥1.81 38
Owner Earnings ¥1.06 ¥1.06 ¥1.06 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥1.41 ¥1.56 ¥1.79 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥1.30 ¥1.37 ¥1.48 41
10Y Revenue Exit ¥1.40 ¥1.52 ¥1.64 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥1.35 ¥1.40 ¥1.46 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.6200 ¥0.6800 ¥0.7600 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.6200 ¥0.7700 ¥0.9700 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA ¥1.24 ¥1.30 ¥1.36 54
EV/Revenue ¥1.42 ¥1.58 ¥1.73 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.41 ¥1.89 ¥2.83 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥1.44 ¥1.57 ¥1.79 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥1.41 ¥1.57 ¥1.77 74

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥1.89) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.6800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 810M CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +26.0%
Net margin -7.2%
Return on equity -2.1%
Free cash flow 34.2M CNY FY2025
Operating margin -9.6%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) ¥-0.0800
EPS growth (YoY) -89.2%
Net cash 843M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 10
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells complete sets of equipment, power electronics, and components in China.

Full company description

Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells complete sets of equipment, power electronics, and components in China. The company provides power electronic products, such as medium-voltage and low-voltage switchgear, high-voltage and low-voltage start-up cabinets, intelligent precision power distribution cabinets, intelligent AC medium-voltage switchgear, marine AC low-voltage switch cabinet, box-type fixed AC and DC switch cabinet, dry-type power transformers, power and control cabinets, lighting boxes, low-voltage complete reactive power compensation devices, active power filter devices, and high-voltage variable frequency speed control devices. It also offers component products, including medium and low-voltage contactors and circuit breakers, intelligent control components, automatic power transfer switch, gas insulated ring main unit, charging pile, surge protector, and reactive power compensation devices. The company offers its products under the SGEG, Honeywell, and AEG brands to electric power, petroleum, chemical, metallurgy, municipal construction, construction, environmental protection, and other industries. Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1986 and is based in Shanghai, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group reported revenue of ¥766M in FY2025 versus ¥1.0B in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −¥34.7M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 18/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
766M CNY
Latest YoY
−26.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−8.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−5.9%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y)
−1.2%
Revenue −6.5%/yr
FY21 ¥1.0B
FY22 ¥984M
FY23 ¥757M
FY24 ¥1.0B
FY25 ¥766M
Net income
FY21 ¥74.4M
FY22 ¥59.4M
FY23 ¥14.6M
FY24 ¥74.7M
FY25 −¥34.7M

601616 screens 66% overvalued. Compare with TD SYNNEX Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601616

Peer Group

Electronics & Computer Distribution · 151 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −67% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -10% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 26% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Electronics & Computer Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.19× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.57× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 13.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.95× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 14
FUTURE 100 · sector 57
PAST 0 · sector 36
HEALTH 100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Electronics & Computer Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 10, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
TD SYNNEX Corporation SNX $251.52 $207.02 -18%
Unisplendour Corporation 000938 ¥38.59 ¥11.79 -69%
Rexel S.A RXL €38.59 €33.31 -14%
Arrow Electronics, Inc ARW $204.10 $115.40 -43%
Avnet, Inc AVT $87.13 $58.57 -33%
WPG Holdings 3702 106.50 TWD 102.31 TWD -4%
Shenzhen Huaqiang Industry Co 000062 ¥22.37 ¥7.52 -66%
Synnex Technology International Corporation 2347 85.30 TWD 86.30 TWD +1%
Nanjing Sunlord Electronics Corporation 300975 ¥37.37 ¥8.60 -77%
Beijing Tricolor Technology Co 603516 ¥106.52 ¥23.39 -78%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group (601616) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.23 versus a price of ¥3.67, about −66% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601616?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group is ¥1.23 (as of Aug 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥3.67.
What is the quality score of 601616?
Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group (601616)?
Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 810M CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 10, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601616?
The net profit margin of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group is about -7.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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