Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd ¥1.54, price ¥3.76, upside -59.0%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.28 – ¥6.17 · fair‑value band ¥1.41 – ¥1.66 · the ¥3.76 price screens above the ¥1.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells complete sets of equipment, power electronics, and components in China.
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Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells complete sets of equipment, power electronics, and components in China. The company provides power electronic products, such as medium-voltage and low-voltage switchgear, high-voltage and low-voltage start-up cabinets, intelligent precision power distribution cabinets, intelligent AC medium-voltage switchgear, marine AC low-voltage switch cabinet, box-type fixed AC and DC switch cabinet, dry-type power transformers, power and control cabinets, lighting boxes, low-voltage complete reactive power compensation devices, active power filter devices, and high-voltage variable frequency speed control devices. It also offers component products, including medium and low-voltage contactors and circuit breakers, intelligent control components, automatic power transfer switch, gas insulated ring main unit, charging pile, surge protector, and reactive power compensation devices. The company offers its products under the SGEG, Honeywell, and AEG brands to electric power, petroleum, chemical, metallurgy, municipal construction, construction, environmental protection, and other industries. Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1986 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616) currently trades at ¥3.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.54, implying the stock looks roughly 144.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥1.89 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥3.76 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.5900, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.41 (bear) to ¥1.66 (bull), the price of ¥3.76 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 766M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −34.7M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.2B CNY (≈ $479M) · P/S ratio 3.87 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0800 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin −4.5% · Return on equity −2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin −9.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −59%, 601616 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.41Fair Value ¥1.54Bull ¥1.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−26.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.6% (2020) → −4.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.5% a year for the price.
Compare Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronics & Computer Distribution · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−59% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−10% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronics & Computer Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.20× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.59× · Pricier than median
P/FCF14.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.95× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 56
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)39· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601616
Frequently asked questions
Is Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.54 versus a price of ¥3.76, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601616?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd is ¥1.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.76.
What is the quality score of 601616?
Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.41, optimistic scenario ¥1.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.54, about −59% upside versus a price of ¥3.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.41, optimistic scenario ¥1.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 810M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.93% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +33.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601616 use?
Our models discount Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd that is +33.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd grew -5.9 % a year. The price currently implies +33.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (+33.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.06 %: that much free cash flow Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd it is ¥1.54 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥3.76. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 601616 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.76, fair value ¥1.54, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601616?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.54). For Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd the two are ¥2.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd at about 3.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.76; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601616?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.41, base ¥1.54, optimistic ¥1.66 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥3.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 601616?
The PEG ratio of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd is 0.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −2.1%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601616 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd trades at ¥3.76, about 39% below its 52-week high of ¥6.17 and 17% above the low of ¥3.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value TD SYNNEX Corporation, Unisplendour Corporation, Rexel S.A, Arrow Electronics, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥3.76, calculated fair value ¥1.54 (−59%), Quality Score 57/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601616 calculated?
We run Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥3.76. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.54, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd grew +1.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.0 %, EBIT margin +11.4 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd is 3.2B CNY (≈ $479M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd is 3.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd are ¥−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd is 1.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
The net margin of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd is −4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd is −2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd is −9.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
Revenue at Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd is growing +26.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd are growing −89.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd (601616) hold?
Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 843M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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