Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 54.2B CNY
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −3.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 54% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (¥1.17 to ¥2.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.44 – ¥5.64 · fair‑value band ¥1.17 – ¥2.22 · the ¥2.56 price screens above the ¥1.66 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618) currently trades at ¥2.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.66, implying the stock looks roughly 35.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd generated revenue of 405B CNY at a net margin of 0.3%. Revenue declined 24.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. Net debt stands at 26.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.17 (bear case) to ¥2.22 (bull case); at ¥2.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -35%, 601618 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥12.31) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.5300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in metallurgical construction and operation in China and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineering Contracting and Specialized Business.
Full company description
Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in metallurgical construction and operation in China and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineering Contracting and Specialized Business. It is involved in metallurgical construction, building construction, and municipal infrastructure projects, as well as engineering services, provision of materials and metallurgical equipment, energy and environmental protection, and digital intelligence applications. It also engages in survey, design, scientific research, and engineering general contracting; maintenance and inspection cooperation; pipeline corridor technology development; engineering consulting; investment management; water resources management; resource development; and trading activities. The company was founded in 1948 and is based in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd reported revenue of ¥455B in FY2025 versus ¥501B in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.3B in FY2025, compounding −37.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
601618 screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 841 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $678.02 | $143.92 | -79% |
| Vinci SA DG | €119.95 | €185.62 | +55% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,739 | $519.97 | -70% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | -46% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | €57.28 | €19.17 | -67% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €427.60 | €203.87 | -52% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 357,500 KRW | 261,411 KRW | -27% |
| ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS | €110.70 | €75.04 | -32% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $833.40 | $549.47 | -34% |
| MasTec, Inc MTZ | $281.11 | $100.00 | -64% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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