Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd ¥5.13, price ¥2.55, upside +101.2%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.44 – ¥5.64 · fair‑value band ¥4.61 – ¥5.13 · the ¥2.55 price screens below the ¥5.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in metallurgical construction and operation in China and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineering Contracting and Specialized Business.
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Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in metallurgical construction and operation in China and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Engineering Contracting and Specialized Business. It is involved in metallurgical construction, building construction, and municipal infrastructure projects, as well as engineering services, provision of materials and metallurgical equipment, energy and environmental protection, and digital intelligence applications. It also engages in survey, design, scientific research, and engineering general contracting; maintenance and inspection cooperation; pipeline corridor technology development; engineering consulting; investment management; water resources management; resource development; and trading activities. The company was founded in 1948 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618) currently trades at ¥2.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.13, implying the stock looks roughly 50.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥6.98 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥2.55 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.5300, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥4.61 (bear) to ¥5.13 (bull), the price of ¥2.55 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd reported revenue of 455B CNY in FY2025 versus 501B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding −37.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 52.8B CNY (≈ $7.9B) · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0400 · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% · Operating margin 2.2% · Revenue (TTM) 373B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 101%, 601618 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥4.61Fair Value ¥5.13Bull ¥5.13
Price ¥2.55 · Upside +101.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF¥4.97¥7.16¥10.4277
Growth DCF¥5.02¥6.92¥9.5776
Owner Earnings¥2.33¥3.05¥4.1474
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥4.97¥7.16¥10.4277
Owner Earnings¥2.33¥3.05¥4.1474
5Y Revenue Exit¥4.94¥7.36¥10.4769
5Y EBITDA Exit¥5.69¥8.78¥12.4172
5Y P/E Exit¥3.10¥3.87¥4.6669
10Y Revenue Exit¥4.79¥6.98¥9.9664
10Y EBITDA Exit¥5.38¥7.95¥11.4365
10Y P/E Exit¥3.76¥4.60¥5.5862
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥0.5000¥1.66¥2.2262
Lynch FV¥0.3700¥0.5300¥0.690059
PEG = 1.0¥0.3700¥0.5300¥0.690055
EPV¥4.69¥5.27¥5.7773
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥1.17¥1.55¥1.9463
P/S Multiple¥0.9400¥1.26¥1.5757
P/B Multiple¥0.9400¥1.26¥1.5755
EV/EBIT¥6.74¥8.65¥10.5665
EV/EBITDA¥6.70¥8.60¥10.4967
EV/Revenue¥5.10¥6.85¥8.6153
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥4.36¥5.85¥8.7253
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥5.02¥6.92¥9.5776
Rev-Margin DCF¥4.94¥7.35¥10.1869
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥5.84¥5.36¥5.1474
ROIC Compounder¥4.69¥5.27¥5.7769
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥0.9800¥1.41¥1.8365
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30.0% vs −12.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.7% a year for the price.
Compare Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 796 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Below median
Fair Value upside+101.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.7% · Below median
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−27.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601618
Frequently asked questions
Is Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.13 versus a price of ¥2.55, about +101% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601618?
Our model-based fair value for Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is ¥5.13 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.55.
What is the quality score of 601618?
Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.13 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.61, optimistic scenario ¥5.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.13, about +101% upside versus a price of ¥2.55 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.61, optimistic scenario ¥5.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 373B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601618 use?
Our models discount Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd that is -7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd grew +2.6 % a year. The price currently implies -7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (-7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.12 %: that much free cash flow Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd it is ¥5.13 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ¥2.55. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 601618 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥2.55, fair value ¥5.13, a gap of about +101% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601618?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.13). For Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd the two are ¥2.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd worth?
The market values Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd at about 52.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.55; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601618?
Our models span a range for Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd: cautious scenario ¥4.61, base ¥5.13, optimistic ¥5.13 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ¥2.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
Balance-sheet figures for Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.7%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601618 from its 52-week high?
Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd trades at ¥2.55, about 38% below its 52-week high of ¥4.14 and 5% above the low of ¥2.44 (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ¥2.55, calculated fair value ¥5.13 (+101%), Quality Score 42/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601618 calculated?
We run Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was ¥2.55. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.13, about +101% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥4.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (¥4.61 to ¥5.13), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618) come from?
Earnings per share at Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd grew +8.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.1 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
The market capitalisation of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is 52.8B CNY (≈ $7.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is 0.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
Earnings per share at Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd are ¥−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
The net margin of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
The operating margin of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
Revenue at Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is growing −27.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618)?
Earnings per share at Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd are growing −68.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (601618) carry?
The net debt of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd is 26.0B CNY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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