Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · IN · Market cap ₹485B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ₹61.85 to ₹110.63 (+78.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹160.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (₹74.66 to ₹160.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹23.90 – ₹622.34 · fair‑value band ₹74.66 – ₹160.47 · the ₹233.38 price screens above the ₹110.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) currently trades at ₹233.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹110.63, implying the stock looks roughly 52.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Rail Vikas Nigam Limited generated revenue of ₹204B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 4.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.0%. Net debt stands at ₹42.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹74.66 (bear case) to ₹160.47 (bull case); at ₹233.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -53%, RVNL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (₹85.70) versus Economic Profit (₹5.67). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in rail infrastructure works in India and internationally. The company undertakes rail project development and implementation, as well as provides financial resources mobilization services.
Full company description
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in rail infrastructure works in India and internationally. The company undertakes rail project development and implementation, as well as provides financial resources mobilization services. It also executes various railway projects, including new lines, doubling, gauge conversion, railway electrification, workshops, bridge work, mega and monumental bridges, metro and metropolitan transport projects, new lines, hilly railway projects, construction of cable stayed bridges, institutional buildings, track renewal, training institutes, railway and other safety works, traffic facilities, and road over bridges, etc. In addition, the company engages in civil engineering; equipment and engine; installation of solar energy systems, and electricity transmission and control apparatus; installation and maintenance of underwater telecommunications and power cables; contracting of electrical fittings, ports and marine construction, dams, and tunnels; business planning and implementation; consulting; construction of rail links, subways, irrigation systems, canals, water main storage towers, transmission lines, and feeder bays; installation, maintenance, and repair of solar energy collectors; and operation and maintenance of railway facilities. It serves Indian Railways, various central and state government ministries, departments, and public sector undertakings. Rail Vikas Nigam Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited reported revenue of ₹204B in FY2026 versus ₹194B in FY2022, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was ₹8.7B in FY2026, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2022.
RVNL screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,815 | ₹1,994 | -48% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 346,000 KRW | 268,779 KRW | -22% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 99,000 KRW | 63,993 KRW | -35% |
| United Integrated Services Co 2404 | 1,250 TWD | 925.62 TWD | -26% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 42,550 KRW | 44,840 KRW | +5% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 16,240 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -60% |
| NBCC (India) Limited NBCC | ₹96.32 | ₹48.22 | -50% |
| Cemindia Projects Limited CEMPRO | ₹1,330 | ₹730.69 | -45% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 92,700 KRW | 20,172 KRW | -78% |
| GS Engineering & Construction Corporation 006360 | 34,400 KRW | 23,135 KRW | -33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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