Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited ₹40.90, price ₹212, upside -80.7%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value ₹40.90 · Strongly overvalued (−81%)
!Quality 44/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +5.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.28% dividend yield
!Trails peers(3/13)
!Narrow moat31/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹24.93 – ₹622.34 · fair‑value band ₹38.23 – ₹68.85 · the ₹211.77 price screens above the ₹40.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Rail Vikas Nigam Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in rail infrastructure works in India and internationally. The company undertakes rail project development and implementation, as well as provides financial resources mobilization services.
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Rail Vikas Nigam Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in rail infrastructure works in India and internationally. The company undertakes rail project development and implementation, as well as provides financial resources mobilization services. It also executes various railway projects, including new lines, doubling, gauge conversion, railway electrification, workshops, bridge work, mega and monumental bridges, metro and metropolitan transport projects, new lines, hilly railway projects, construction of cable stayed bridges, institutional buildings, track renewal, training institutes, railway and other safety works, traffic facilities, and road over bridges, etc. In addition, the company engages in civil engineering; equipment and engine; installation of solar energy systems, and electricity transmission and control apparatus; installation and maintenance of underwater telecommunications and power cables; contracting of electrical fittings, ports and marine construction, dams, and tunnels; business planning and implementation; consulting; construction of rail links, subways, irrigation systems, canals, water main storage towers, transmission lines, and feeder bays; installation, maintenance, and repair of solar energy collectors; and operation and maintenance of railway facilities. It serves Indian Railways, various central and state government ministries, departments, and public sector undertakings. Rail Vikas Nigam Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Stock analysis
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) currently trades at ₹211.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹40.90, implying the stock looks roughly 417.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹114.64 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ₹211.77 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹5.67, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹38.23 (bear) to ₹68.85 (bull), the price of ₹211.77 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited reported revenue of ₹204B in FY2026 versus ₹194B in FY2022, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was ₹8.7B in FY2026, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹485B (≈ $5.0B) · P/E ratio 48.9 · P/S ratio 2.10 · EPS (TTM) ₹4.33 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −81%, RVNL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (₹5.67 to ₹130.52). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ₹38.23Fair Value ₹40.90Bull ₹68.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹0.7128 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3% vs 7%, slowing
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 822 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−81% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)48.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.94× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.38× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA68.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)21· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)36· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)78· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)26· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹40.90 versus a price of ₹211.77, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RVNL?
Our model-based fair value for Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is ₹40.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹211.77.
What is the quality score of RVNL?
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹40.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹38.23, optimistic scenario ₹68.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rail Vikas Nigam Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹40.90, about −81% upside versus a price of ₹211.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹38.23, optimistic scenario ₹68.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹204B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Rail Vikas Nigam Limited pay a dividend?
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.28% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rail Vikas Nigam Limited it is ₹40.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹211.77. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rail Vikas Nigam Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, RVNL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹211.77, fair value ₹40.90, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RVNL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹211.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹40.90). For Rail Vikas Nigam Limited the two are ₹170.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rail Vikas Nigam Limited worth?
The market values Rail Vikas Nigam Limited at about ₹485B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹211.77; our models calculate a fair value of ₹40.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RVNL?
Our models span a range for Rail Vikas Nigam Limited: cautious scenario ₹38.23, base ₹40.90, optimistic ₹68.85 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹211.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RVNL?
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹40.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.9, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 68.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.0%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RVNL from its 52-week high?
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited trades at ₹211.77, about 45% below its 52-week high of ₹386.74 and 7% above the low of ₹197.50 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹40.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rail Vikas Nigam Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rail Vikas Nigam Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹211.77, calculated fair value ₹40.90 (−81%), Quality Score 44/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RVNL calculated?
We run Rail Vikas Nigam Limited through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹40.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Rail Vikas Nigam Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ₹211.77. Our model-based fair value is ₹40.90, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rail Vikas Nigam Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹68.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (₹38.23 to ₹68.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) come from?
Earnings per share at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited grew +13.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +18.4 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The market capitalisation of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is ₹485B (≈ $5.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 2.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Earnings per share at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited are ₹4.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The dividend yield of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 1.3% (payout 62.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The net margin of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 4.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The operating margin of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Revenue at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is growing +4.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Earnings per share at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited are growing −59.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) generate?
The free cash flow of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is −₹17.4B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) carry?
The net debt of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is ₹42.6B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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