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Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited stock ₹71.15, price ₹193, that is 63.2% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials IN · ISIN INE415G01027

RV Rail Vikas Nigam Limited logo Some data Nov 2, 2026

Rail Vikas Nigam Limited

RVNL · NSE
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 63% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 45/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.8 %/yr in INR)
Thin margins · 4.3% net margin (TTM)
0.6% dividend yield · Token dividend
Some data
Fair value ₹71.15 · Strongly overvalued (−63.2%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/13)
Narrow moat 32/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

₹620.41 ₹24.85 Fair Value ₹71.15 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹24.85 – ₹620.41 · fair‑value band ₹67.03 – ₹103.57 · the ₹193.34 price screens above the ₹71.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Rail Vikas Nigam Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in rail infrastructure works in India and internationally. The company undertakes rail project development and implementation, as well as provides financial resources mobilization services.

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It also executes various railway projects, including new lines, doubling, gauge conversion, railway electrification, workshops, bridge work, mega and monumental bridges, metro and metropolitan transport projects, new lines, hilly railway projects, construction of cable stayed bridges, institutional buildings, track renewal, training institutes, railway and other safety works, traffic facilities, and road over bridges, etc.

In addition, the company engages in civil engineering; equipment and engine; installation of solar energy systems, and electricity transmission and control apparatus; installation and maintenance of underwater telecommunications and power cables; contracting of electrical fittings, ports and marine construction, dams, and tunnels; business planning and implementation; consulting; construction of rail links, subways, irrigation systems, canals, water main storage towers, transmission lines, and feeder bays; installation, maintenance, and repair of solar energy collectors; and operation and maintenance of railway facilities.

It serves Indian Railways, various central and state government ministries, departments, and public sector undertakings. Rail Vikas Nigam Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in New Delhi, India.

Stock analysis

Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) currently trades at ₹193.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹71.15, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹78.68 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ₹193.34 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹8.13, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ₹67.03 (bear) to ₹103.57 (bull), the price of ₹193.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Rail Vikas Nigam Limited reported revenue of ₹204B in FY2026 versus ₹194B in FY2022, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was ₹8.7B in FY2026, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap ₹403B (≈ $4.3B) Mid · P/E ratio 44.9 · P/S ratio 1.93 · EPS (TTM) ₹4.31 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −63%, RVNL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (₹8.13 to ₹130.52). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ₹67.03 Fair Value ₹71.15 Bull ₹103.57
Price ₹193.34 · Downside -63.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹1.94 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income ₹37.24 ₹39.53 ₹43.63 76
Owner Earnings ₹12.08 ₹30.52 ₹57.54 72
EPV n/a n/a ₹0.5400 68
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ₹12.08 ₹30.52 ₹57.54 72
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ₹28.53 ₹130.52 ₹179.12 64
Lynch FV ₹34.24 ₹48.92 ₹63.59 61
PEG = 1.0 ₹34.24 ₹48.92 ₹63.59 57
EPV n/a n/a ₹0.5400 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ₹20.06 ₹34.59 ₹45.93 68
DDM Multi-Stage ₹20.06 ₹32.33 ₹37.12 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ₹66.07 ₹88.10 ₹110.12 63
P/S Multiple ₹53.49 ₹71.32 ₹89.15 58
P/B Multiple ₹69.74 ₹92.99 ₹116.24 55
EV/EBIT ₹24.27 ₹39.17 ₹54.07 64
EV/EBITDA ₹16.09 ₹28.27 ₹40.45 65
EV/Revenue ₹11.47 ₹25.14 ₹38.82 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹5.37 ₹8.13 ₹10.16 55
Economic Profit
Residual Income ₹37.24 ₹39.53 ₹43.63 76
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a ₹0.5400 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ₹55.07 ₹78.68 ₹102.28 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 36
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 52
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 73
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 65
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 10
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 3
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 83
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 39/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.5% vs 7.4%, slowing
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

RVNL screens overvalued: fair value 63% below the price. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 791 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside −63.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 9.0% · Above median
Return on assets 4.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 4.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 4.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 10.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.44× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 44.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B 4.10× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.93× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 48.9× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)53 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)36 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)78 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)12 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vinci SA DG €111.60 €186.68 +67% vs RVNL
Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX $1,018 $1,119 +10% vs RVNL
EMCOR Group EME $608.45 $524.14 −14% vs RVNL
ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS €87.00 €62.21 −28% vs RVNL
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 273,500 KRW 159,702 KRW −42% vs RVNL
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹4,118 ₹2,302 −44% vs RVNL
HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT €365.60 €203.86 −44% vs RVNL
APi Group APG $40.87 $19.20 −53% vs RVNL
Ferrovial N.V FER $58.71 $23.06 −61% vs RVNL
Quanta Services, Inc PWR $540.90 $162.41 −70% vs RVNL

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Rail Vikas Nigam Limited: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rail Vikas Nigam Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RVNL

Frequently asked questions

Is Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹71.15 versus a price of ₹193.34, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RVNL?
Our model-based fair value for Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is ₹71.15 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹193.34.
What is the quality score of RVNL?
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹71.15 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹67.03, optimistic scenario ₹103.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rail Vikas Nigam Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹71.15, about 63% lower versus a price of ₹193.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹67.03, optimistic scenario ₹103.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹208B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Rail Vikas Nigam Limited pay a dividend?
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 0.58% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited pays a dividend of ₹1.12 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.6%. The dividend was cut; the year before it was ₹3.83 per share. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 18, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2019. The payout ratio is 26.1% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.6% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.6% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rail Vikas Nigam Limited it is ₹71.15 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of ₹193.34. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Rail Vikas Nigam Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, RVNL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹193.34, fair value ₹71.15, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RVNL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹193.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹71.15). For Rail Vikas Nigam Limited the two are ₹122.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rail Vikas Nigam Limited worth?
The market values Rail Vikas Nigam Limited at about ₹403B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is ₹193.34; our models calculate a fair value of ₹71.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RVNL?
Our models span a range for Rail Vikas Nigam Limited: cautious scenario ₹67.03, base ₹71.15, optimistic ₹103.57 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price ₹193.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RVNL?
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.9 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹71.15 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2020 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 10.7. Other multiples: P/B 4.1, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 48.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 9.0%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RVNL from its 52-week high?
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited trades at ₹193.34, about 50% below its 52-week high of ₹385.53 and 8% above the low of ₹179.67 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹71.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rail Vikas Nigam Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rail Vikas Nigam Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price ₹193.34, calculated fair value ₹71.15 (−63%), Quality Score 45/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RVNL calculated?
We run Rail Vikas Nigam Limited through 17 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ₹71.15 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Rail Vikas Nigam Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ₹193.34. Our model-based fair value is ₹71.15, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rail Vikas Nigam Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹103.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) come from?
Earnings per share at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited grew +13.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +18.4 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The market capitalisation of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is ₹403B (≈ $4.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 1.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Earnings per share at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited are ₹4.31 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The dividend yield of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 0.6% (payout 26.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The net margin of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 4.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
The operating margin of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Revenue at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is growing +10.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)?
Earnings per share at Rail Vikas Nigam Limited are growing +16.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) generate?
The free cash flow of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is −₹17.4B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) carry?
The net debt of Rail Vikas Nigam Limited is ₹42.6B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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