Hengdian Group (603303) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 15.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥11.31 to ¥16.84 (+48.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −8.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥21.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.03 – ¥33.14 · fair‑value band ¥14.00 – ¥21.05 · the ¥21.73 price screens above the ¥16.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Hengdian Group (603303) currently trades at ¥21.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥16.84, implying the stock looks roughly 22.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hengdian Group generated revenue of 4.3B CNY at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.5B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥14.00 (bear case) to ¥21.05 (bull case); at ¥21.73, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -22%, 603303 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥17.28) versus Asset-Based (¥4.47). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, sale, and servicing of civil, commercial, and automotive lighting products in China. It operates through lighting business and automotive business segments. The company offers civil lighting, commercial lighting and intelligent lighting products.
Full company description
Hengdian Group Tospo Lighting Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, sale, and servicing of civil, commercial, and automotive lighting products in China. It operates through lighting business and automotive business segments. The company offers civil lighting, commercial lighting and intelligent lighting products. It provides consumer lighting, including plant, decorative, cross, small panel, ceiling, downlight, filament lamp, and bulb lights; professional lighting, such as floodlight, industrial and mining lamp, safety lamp, and streetlights; and automotive lighting, comprising thick walled dual-color and front combination headlight. It also manufactures automotive controllers and lighting products, including headlamp drivers, battery management systems, and automotive lighting components. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Jinhua, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hengdian Group reported revenue of ¥4.3B in FY2025 versus ¥5.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥264M in FY2025, compounding −5.2%/yr from FY2021.
603303 screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co →
Peer Group
Electrical Equipment & Parts · 528 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contemporary Amperex Technology Co 3750 | HK$675.50 | HK$391.44 | -42% |
| ABB Ltd ABBN | CHF 83.82 | CHF 35.46 | -58% |
| Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company TDED | 10.16 SGD | 1.47 SGD | -86% |
| LG Energy Solution, Ltd 373220 | 334,000 KRW | 201,455 KRW | -40% |
| WEG S.A WEGE3 | 13,210 ARS | 7,948 ARS | -40% |
| Sungrow Power Supply Co 300274 | ¥114.79 | ¥123.83 | +8% |
| Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co 300124 | ¥63.43 | ¥33.04 | -48% |
| HD Hyundai Electric Co 267260 | 823,000 KRW | 371,133 KRW | -55% |
| LS ELECTRIC Co 010120 | 190,000 KRW | 31,517 KRW | -83% |
| Sieyuan Electric Co 002028 | ¥151.73 | ¥71.69 | -53% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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