Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd ¥7.86, price ¥8.98, upside -12.5%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.46 – ¥14.55 · fair‑value band ¥4.69 – ¥10.71 · the ¥8.98 price screens above the ¥7.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shuifa Energas Gas Co., Ltd. engages in the liquified natural gas (LNG) business in China and internationally.
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Shuifa Energas Gas Co., Ltd. engages in the liquified natural gas (LNG) business in China and internationally. The company engages in the production and sale of liquified natural gas, CNG, and heavy hydrocarbons; trading of LNG; operation of gas supply lines; sale and installation of pipeline gas; and the production and installation of gas and gas system engineering equipment products. It also invests, develops, designs, installs, commissions, operates, and maintains distributed energy. Shuifa Energas Gas Co., Ltd. was formerly known as Dalian Energas Gas-System Co., Ltd. Shuifa Energas Gas Co., Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is based in Jinan, China.
Stock analysis
Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318) currently trades at ¥8.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.86, implying the stock looks roughly 14.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥4.55 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥8.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.67, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥4.69 (bear) to ¥10.71 (bull), the price of ¥8.98 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was −78.8M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 5.0B CNY (≈ $754M) · P/S ratio 2.07 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2000 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin −3.1% · Return on equity −2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Operating margin 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −12%, 603318 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥4.69Fair Value ¥7.86Bull ¥10.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.0% (2020) → 9.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+68.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +65.8% a year for the price.
Compare Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 190 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−13% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−18% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603318
Frequently asked questions
Is Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.86 versus a price of ¥8.98, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603318?
Our model-based fair value for Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd is ¥7.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.98.
What is the quality score of 603318?
Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.69, optimistic scenario ¥10.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.86, about −12% upside versus a price of ¥8.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.69, optimistic scenario ¥10.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +68.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603318 use?
Our models discount Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd that is +68.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd grew +17.6 % a year. The price currently implies +68.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (+68.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.41 %: that much free cash flow Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd it is ¥7.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥8.98. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603318 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.98, fair value ¥7.86, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603318?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.86). For Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd the two are ¥1.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd at about 5.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.98; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603318?
Our models span a range for Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥4.69, base ¥7.86, optimistic ¥10.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥8.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −2.0%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603318 from its 52-week high?
Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd trades at ¥8.98, about 38% below its 52-week high of ¥14.55 and 40% above the low of ¥6.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥8.98, calculated fair value ¥7.86 (−12%), Quality Score 36/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603318 calculated?
We run Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥8.98. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.86, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (¥4.69 to ¥10.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318) come from?
Earnings per share at Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd grew +4.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +21.0 %, EBIT margin −4.0 %, tax rate −4.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
The market capitalisation of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd is 5.0B CNY (≈ $754M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd is 2.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
Earnings per share at Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd are ¥−0.2000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
The dividend yield of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd is 1.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
The net margin of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd is −3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd is −2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
The operating margin of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
Revenue at Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd is growing −17.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318)?
Earnings per share at Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd are growing −75.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd (603318) carry?
The net debt of Shuifa Energas Gas Co Ltd is 725M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 43.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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