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Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co (603439) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · CN · Market cap 6.1B CNY

GS Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co 603439 · SHG
Price¥11.19
Fair Value¥2.53
Upside-77.4%
Quality59/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 2.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.39% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/14)
Narrow moat 37/100
Evidence: High Range ¥2.27 – ¥3.11 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥5.56 to ¥2.53 (−54.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −9.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 77% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥22.18 ¥9.68 Fair Value ¥2.53 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥9.68 – ¥22.18 · fair‑value band ¥2.27 – ¥3.11 · the ¥11.19 price screens above the ¥2.53 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co (603439) currently trades at ¥11.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.53, implying the stock looks roughly 77.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co generated revenue of 1.7B CNY at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue declined 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.2%. Net debt stands at 309M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.27 (bear case) to ¥3.11 (bull case); at ¥11.19, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -77%, 603439 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥5.45 ¥9.70 ¥17.61 80
Residual Income ¥2.56 ¥2.52 ¥2.16 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.37 ¥10.14 ¥17.33 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥5.71 ¥8.89 ¥17.97 38
Owner Earnings ¥4.02 ¥8.19 ¥16.63 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥5.37 ¥9.47 ¥17.54 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.95 ¥12.86 ¥23.77 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥3.37 ¥5.64 ¥8.47 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥5.28 ¥10.38 ¥16.11 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.54 ¥13.34 ¥26.01 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥4.07 ¥6.63 ¥10.79 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.7700 ¥5.36 ¥7.53 54
Lynch FV ¥1.64 ¥2.34 ¥3.05 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥1.64 ¥2.34 ¥3.05 46
EPV ¥4.00 ¥4.54 ¥5.00 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.47 ¥6.91 ¥10.46 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.47 ¥5.97 ¥7.29 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥1.87 ¥2.49 ¥3.11 63
P/S Multiple ¥1.44 ¥1.92 ¥2.40 58
P/B Multiple ¥1.44 ¥1.92 ¥2.40 55
EV/EBIT ¥6.78 ¥8.85 ¥10.91 53
EV/EBITDA ¥7.59 ¥9.92 ¥12.26 54
EV/Revenue ¥5.01 ¥6.90 ¥8.80 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.77 ¥2.37 ¥3.54 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥5.45 ¥9.70 ¥17.61 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.37 ¥10.14 ¥17.33 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.56 ¥2.52 ¥2.16 76
ROIC Compounder ¥4.39 ¥5.97 ¥7.25 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥2.27 ¥3.24 ¥4.21 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥9.70) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.34). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.7B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -6.6%
Net margin 2.9%
Return on equity 3.2%
Free cash flow 139M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 124.6
More key figures
Operating margin 14.7%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200
Dividend yield 0.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +10.0%
Net debt 309M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the plantation, research, development, production, and sale of pharmaceutical products in China. The company offers respiratory system, tonic, gynecological, and orthopedic medications, as well as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs, and other medicines.

Full company description

Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the plantation, research, development, production, and sale of pharmaceutical products in China. The company offers respiratory system, tonic, gynecological, and orthopedic medications, as well as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs, and other medicines. It also provides products in various dosage forms, including sprays, granules, capsules, pills, tablets, medicated wines, and ointments. The company was founded in 1995 and is based in Anshun, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co reported revenue of ¥1.7B in FY2025 versus ¥939M in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥46.3M in FY2025, compounding −25.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.7B CNY
Latest YoY
−20.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+12.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+22.0%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y)
+21.8%
Revenue +16.0%/yr
FY21 ¥939M
FY22 ¥1.2B
FY23 ¥1.6B
FY24 ¥2.1B
FY25 ¥1.7B
Net income −25.8%/yr
FY21 ¥152M
FY22 ¥201M
FY23 ¥293M
FY24 ¥274M
FY25 ¥46.3M

603439 screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603439

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Above median
Revenue growth -7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.10× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 124.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 4.23× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.65× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 6.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 22.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 7
FUTURE 0 · sector 20
PAST 13 · sector 23
HEALTH 95 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 8 · sector 34

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥53.19 ¥25.94 -51%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,933 ₹989.50 -49%
Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB ₹7,316 ₹1,943 -73%
Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM ₹4,763 ₹1,329 -72%
PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 1,285 TWD 221.01 TWD -83%
Cipla Limited CIPLA ₹1,439 ₹1,001 -30%
Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE ₹1,151 ₹703.32 -39%
Lupin Limited LUPIN ₹2,443 ₹2,477 +1%
Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND ₹2,484 ₹983.11 -60%
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY ₹1,211 ₹874.79 -28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co (603439) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.53 versus a price of ¥11.19, about −77% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603439?
Our model-based fair value for Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co is ¥2.53 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥11.19.
What is the quality score of 603439?
Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co (603439)?
Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 603439?
The net profit margin of Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co is about 2.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co pay a dividend?
Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.39% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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