Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn stock ¥2.84, price ¥27.34, upside -89.6%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.77 – ¥66.06 · fair‑value band ¥2.13 – ¥3.17 · the ¥27.34 price screens above the ¥2.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
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TKD Science and Technology Co.,Ltd. researches, develops, produces, and sells quartz frequency control components and production equipment in primarily China.
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The company offers quartz crystal resonators; oscillators; thermistors; products containing DIP; SMD encapsulation of high and low frequency crystal resonators; upstream chips; and WAFER, pedestal, shell, etc.
Its products are used in information devices, mobile terminals, network equipment, automotive electronics, consumer electronics, small electronic devices, etc.
TKD Science and Technology Co.,Ltd. was formerly known as Hubei TKD Crystal Electronic Science and Technology Co., Ltd. and changed its name to TKD Science And Technology Co., Ltd. in May 2019. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Suizhou, China.
Stock analysis
Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738) currently trades at ¥27.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.84, 89.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥2.84 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥27.34 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.9600, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.13 (bear) to ¥3.17 (bull), the price of ¥27.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hubei TKD Crystal Electn reported revenue of 944M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.6%/yr. Reported net income was 52.2M CNY in FY2025, compounding −32.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 10.6B CNY (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/E ratio 130.2 · P/S ratio 10.2 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.2100 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −90%, 603738 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.9600 to ¥20.21). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥2.13Fair Value ¥2.84Bull¥3.17
Price ¥27.34 · Upside -89.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1380 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.45/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.4% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.9% vs −4.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Compare Hubei TKD Crystal Electn with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 635 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−89.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.6% · Below median
Return on assets2.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)5.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)130.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.95× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)10.24× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA64.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)74· sector 63
PAST (return on equity)18· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.84 versus a price of ¥27.34, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603738?
Our model-based fair value for Hubei TKD Crystal Electn is ¥2.84 (as of Oct 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥27.34.
What is the quality score of 603738?
Hubei TKD Crystal Electn has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.84 (as of Oct 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.13, optimistic scenario ¥3.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hubei TKD Crystal Electn stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.84, about −90% upside versus a price of ¥27.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.13, optimistic scenario ¥3.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
Hubei TKD Crystal Electn reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 24, 2026).
Does Hubei TKD Crystal Electn pay a dividend?
Hubei TKD Crystal Electn currently shows a dividend yield of 0.15% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hubei TKD Crystal Electn it is ¥2.84 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026), against a price of ¥27.34. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hubei TKD Crystal Electn stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, 603738 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥27.34, fair value ¥2.84, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603738?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥27.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.84). For Hubei TKD Crystal Electn the two are ¥24.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hubei TKD Crystal Electn worth?
The market values Hubei TKD Crystal Electn at about 10.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥27.34; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603738?
Our models span a range for Hubei TKD Crystal Electn: cautious scenario ¥2.13, base ¥2.84, optimistic ¥3.17 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026, price ¥27.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603738?
Hubei TKD Crystal Electn trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 130.2 (as of Oct 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.0, P/S 10.2, EV/EBITDA 64.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (as of Oct 24, 2026): return on equity 4.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603738 from its 52-week high?
Hubei TKD Crystal Electn trades at ¥27.34, about 59% below its 52-week high of ¥66.06 and 85% above the low of ¥14.77 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hubei TKD Crystal Electn?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Delta Electronics, Inc, Corning Incorporated, Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hubei TKD Crystal Electn stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 24, 2026: price ¥27.34, calculated fair value ¥2.84 (−90%), Quality Score 54/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603738 calculated?
We run Hubei TKD Crystal Electn through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Hubei TKD Crystal Electn itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥27.34. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.84, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hubei TKD Crystal Electn right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738) come from?
Earnings per share at Hubei TKD Crystal Electn grew +5.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin −2.9 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn
How large is the market capitalisation of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
The market capitalisation of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn is 10.6B CNY (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn is 10.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
Earnings per share at Hubei TKD Crystal Electn are ¥0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 130.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
The dividend yield of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn is 0.1% (payout 19.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
The net margin of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn is 7.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn is 7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
The operating margin of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
Revenue at Hubei TKD Crystal Electn is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738)?
Earnings per share at Hubei TKD Crystal Electn are growing +57.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738) generate?
The free cash flow of Hubei TKD Crystal Electn is −13.8M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hubei TKD Crystal Electn (603738) hold?
Hubei TKD Crystal Electn holds more cash than debt, 175M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 24, 2026