Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. ¥2.01, price ¥13.26, upside -84.8%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.42 – ¥65.85 · fair‑value band ¥1.51 – ¥2.52 · the ¥13.26 price screens above the ¥2.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. engages in the development, production, processing, and sale of edible oil and dairy products in China and internationally. It offers baking oil and fat; light cream; pre-made baked goods; pre-packaged food, including frozen and refrigerated food; frozen dough, fillings, etc.
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Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. engages in the development, production, processing, and sale of edible oil and dairy products in China and internationally. It offers baking oil and fat; light cream; pre-made baked goods; pre-packaged food, including frozen and refrigerated food; frozen dough, fillings, etc. It is also involved in wholesale and import/export of edible oil; trading; and online retail business, as well as provision of related supporting services. The company was founded in 2010 and is based in Shanghai, China. Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Namchow (Cayman Islands) Holding Corp.
Stock analysis
Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339) currently trades at ¥13.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.01, 84.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥5.40 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥13.26 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.53, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.51 (bear) to ¥2.52 (bull), the price of ¥13.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 3.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was 40.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding −42.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.6B CNY (≈ $833M) · P/E ratio 331.5 · P/S ratio 4.40 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0400 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 1.3% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −85%, 605339 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.3700 to ¥7.14). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥1.51Fair Value ¥2.01Bull ¥2.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0076 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−33.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−33.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−33.9% vs −18.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 2%
Compare Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 620 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−84.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets−0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)331.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.63× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.84× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA59.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)2· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)5· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/605339
Frequently asked questions
Is Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.01 versus a price of ¥13.26, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 605339?
Our model-based fair value for Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. is ¥2.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥13.26.
What is the quality score of 605339?
Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.51, optimistic scenario ¥2.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.01, about −85% upside versus a price of ¥13.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.51, optimistic scenario ¥2.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. it is ¥2.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥13.26. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 605339 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥13.26, fair value ¥2.01, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 605339?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥13.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.01). For Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. the two are ¥11.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. at about 5.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥13.26; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 605339?
Our models span a range for Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥1.51, base ¥2.01, optimistic ¥2.52 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥13.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 605339?
Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 331.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 59.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
Balance-sheet figures for Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 605339 from its 52-week high?
Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. trades at ¥13.26, about 39% below its 52-week high of ¥21.62 and 16% above the low of ¥11.42 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥13.26, calculated fair value ¥2.01 (−85%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 605339 calculated?
We run Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥13.26. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.01, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339) come from?
Earnings per share at Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. grew −7.5 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin −11.6 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
The market capitalisation of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. is 5.6B CNY (≈ $833M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. is 4.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
Earnings per share at Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. are ¥0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 331.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
The dividend yield of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. is 0.2% (payout 75.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
The net margin of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. is 1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
The operating margin of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
Revenue at Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. is growing −2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339)?
Earnings per share at Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. are growing −85.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339) generate?
The free cash flow of Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. is −318M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. (605339) hold?
Namchow Food Group (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. holds more cash than debt, 514M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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