Flat Glass Group Co Ltd (6865) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · HK · Market cap HK$15.0B (≈ $1.9B) · ISIN CNE100002375

What is Flat Glass Group Co Ltd really worth?

FG Flat Glass Group Co Ltd 6865 · HK

PriceHK$6.59

Fair ValueHK$8.17

Upside+24.1%

Quality39/100

Below-average quality, trading 19% below our fair value of HK$8.17.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Flat Glass Group Co Ltd is HK$8.17 per share against a price of HK$6.59, so the fair value sits 24% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +31.2 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 6.1% net margin

!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)

!Narrow moat 30/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 17 out of 100

For context

·2.28% dividend yield

Evidence: Low Range HK$6.07 – HK$11.40

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$8.08 to HK$8.17 (+1.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −12.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

A fairly wide model range (HK$6.07 to HK$11.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.90 – HK$41.28 · fair‑value band HK$6.07 – HK$11.40 · the HK$6.59 price screens below the HK$8.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Flat Glass Group Co Ltd (6865) currently trades at HK$6.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.17, implying the stock looks roughly 19.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$14.10 per share, and 14 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$6.59 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$1.84, and 8 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Flat Glass Group Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$15.2B at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue declined 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.2%. Net debt stands at HK$11.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$6.07 (bear case) to HK$11.40 (bull case); at HK$6.59, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 24%, 6865 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.1637 per share, which is 2.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Residual Income best evidence HK$7.11 HK$7.10 HK$6.54 76

Owner Earnings — — HK$1.16 73

EPV HK$1.18 HK$1.84 HK$2.42 72

All 23 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings — — HK$1.16 73

5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.6300 HK$4.22 HK$11.62 62

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$10.29 HK$24.24 HK$51.08 69

5Y P/E Exit HK$3.64 HK$13.13 HK$26.12 65

10Y Revenue Exit — HK$4.27 HK$8.74 64

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$6.73 HK$24.09 HK$58.58 60

10Y P/E Exit HK$1.94 HK$10.44 HK$26.20 55

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$2.78 HK$19.40 HK$27.23 63

Lynch FV HK$6.64 HK$9.48 HK$12.33 61

PEG = 1.0 HK$6.64 HK$9.48 HK$12.33 57

EPV HK$1.18 HK$1.84 HK$2.42 72

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$1.32 HK$2.75 HK$4.36 66

DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.32 HK$2.32 HK$2.88 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$8.59 HK$11.46 HK$14.32 63

P/S Multiple HK$5.22 HK$6.96 HK$8.69 58

P/B Multiple HK$5.22 HK$6.96 HK$8.69 55

EV/EBIT HK$5.54 HK$8.32 HK$11.10 65

EV/EBITDA HK$14.84 HK$20.72 HK$26.59 67

EV/Revenue HK$1.43 HK$3.23 HK$5.04 51

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$4.72 HK$6.32 HK$9.44 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income best evidence HK$7.11 HK$7.10 HK$6.54 76

ROIC Compounder HK$1.18 HK$1.84 HK$2.42 71

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$9.87 HK$14.10 HK$18.33 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$14.10) versus Economic Profit (HK$1.84). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.6 as of Jul 2, 2026

P/S ratio 0.78 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$0.3900 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.6

Dividend yield 2.3% payout 38.5%

Net margin 6.1% FY2025

Return on equity 4.2% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% avg 5y

Operating margin 7.0% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$15.2B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) −9.9% 3y avg +0.2%

EPS growth (YoY) −60.0%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$47.1M FY2025

Net debt HK$11.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14

Profitability 24

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 41

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 46

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 41

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 27

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 25

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 12

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 5

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 68

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full company description

Flat Glass Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of glass products in the People's Republic of China, the rest of Asia, Europe, North America, and internationally. It operates through PV Glass, Household Glass, Architectural Glass, Float Glass, Mining Products, Electricity Generation Revenue, and Other Business segments. The company is also involved in the mining operations and sale of quartzite ores; investment, construction, operation, and maintenance of energy power plants; and sale and installation of natural gas pipelines. In addition, it offers supply chain management services; operates ports; and exports glass products. Further, the company engages in the development and sale of energy technologies and equipment; energy management; cargo handling and transportation; manufacturing and sale of equipment and non-metallic mineral products; research and development for new materials and technologies; manufacture and sale of photovoltaic glasses; and the construction of solar photovoltaic power stations, as well as the sale of electricity. It serves photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturers, glass processing manufacturers, glass wholesalers, furniture manufacturers and processing companies, furniture retailers, architectural contractors, architectural glass processing companies, and construction companies. Flat Glass Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Jiaxing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Flat Glass Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 15.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 8.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was 955M CNY in FY2025, compounding −18.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$15.6B

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+28.9%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+31.2%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+23.5%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

−10.2% · in HKD

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share−12.5%

Dividend yield2.3%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −12.5% vs 10Y 2.8%, flattening

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29.8% (2020) → 6.9% (2025) · falling

Worst earnings drop67% (2025) · in HKD

Revenue +15.6%/yr

FY21 8.7B CNY

FY22 15.5B CNY

FY23 21.5B CNY

FY24 18.7B CNY

FY25 15.6B CNY

Net income −18.1%/yr

FY21 2.1B CNY

FY22 2.1B CNY

FY23 2.8B CNY

FY24 1.0B CNY

FY25 955M CNY

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +10.1 % p.a.

Revenue per share +18.6 %

of which total revenue +22.9 % · buybacks/dilution −3.5 %

EBIT margin −9.3 %

Tax rate +1.2 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Flat Glass Group Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$8.17 +19%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Flat Glass Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6865.HK

Peer Group

Solar · 110 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 39 · Below median

Fair Value upside −28% · Below median

Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Above median

Return on assets 2% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median

Revenue growth −10% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Above median

Debt / equity 0.48× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Solar median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 0.68× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.99× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 40.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers

EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 13

FUTURE0 · sector 0

PAST17 · sector 0

HEALTH76 · sector 86

DIVIDEND46 · sector 28

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Flat Glass Group Co Ltd (6865) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.17 versus a price of HK$6.59, about +24% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 6865?

Our model-based fair value for Flat Glass Group Co Ltd is HK$8.17 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$6.59.

What is the quality score of 6865?

Flat Glass Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Flat Glass Group Co Ltd (6865)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$8.17 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.07, optimistic scenario HK$11.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Flat Glass Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$8.17, about +24% upside versus a price of HK$6.59 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$6.07, optimistic scenario HK$11.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Flat Glass Group Co Ltd (6865)?

Flat Glass Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$15.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 6865?

The net profit margin of Flat Glass Group Co Ltd is about 6.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Flat Glass Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?

Flat Glass Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.28% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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