Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd stock ¥5.81, price ¥16.52, upside -64.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.12 – ¥31.27 · fair‑value band ¥4.17 – ¥8.06 · the ¥16.52 price screens above the ¥5.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Wuhan Citms Technology CO.,LTD. engages in the public security informatization business.
Show moreShow less
The company provides Tonghui, a visual comprehensive platform; Zhihui, a video center; Zhitong, a visual center; Zhiyun, a digital cloud OS; Zhiqi, a data center; Zhixing, a modeling platform; Tongtu, an integrated traffic control platform; Tongkong, an intelligent traffic signal unified control platform; Tongguan, a traffic violation management platform; and Antong, a video fusion all-in-one machine.
It also offers professional platform products, solutions, and technical services in the fields of video cloud +, public security big data governance, relationship maps and technical and tactical models, intelligence, command, duty and public opinion integration, refined traffic management, smart and safe communities, and intelligent grassroots policing.
The company was founded in 2007 and is based in Wuhan, China.
Stock analysis
Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038) currently trades at ¥16.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.81, 64.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥6.32 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the ¥16.52 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥3.19, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥4.17 (bear) to ¥8.06 (bull), the price of ¥16.52 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd reported revenue of 263M CNY in FY2025 versus 428M CNY in FY2021, a compound −11.5%/yr. Reported net income was −4.0M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.2B CNY (≈ $329M) Small · P/S ratio 7.78 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin −0.4% · Return on equity −0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.1% · Operating margin 3.7% · Revenue (TTM) 266M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −65%, 688038 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥4.17Fair Value ¥5.81Bull¥8.06
Price ¥16.52 · Upside -64.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥6.12¥9.28¥13.8180
Growth DCF¥6.09¥8.97¥12.8878
Owner Earnings¥1.15¥1.54¥2.1177
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥6.12¥9.28¥13.8180
Owner Earnings¥1.15¥1.54¥2.1177
5Y Revenue Exit¥4.31¥6.28¥8.7873
10Y Revenue Exit¥4.90¥6.84¥9.4867
Multiples
EV/Revenue¥1.97¥3.19¥4.4153
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥2.41¥3.65¥4.5754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥6.09¥8.97¥12.8878
Rev-Margin DCF¥4.31¥6.32¥8.8173
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.15/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−23.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.7% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.7% (2020) → −3.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.5% a year for the price.
Compare Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 555 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−64.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−0.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)54.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electrical Equipment & Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.69× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)8.25× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow36.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 65
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)9· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688038
Frequently asked questions
Is Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.81 versus a price of ¥16.52, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688038?
Our model-based fair value for Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd is ¥5.81 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥16.52.
What is the quality score of 688038?
Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.81 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.17, optimistic scenario ¥8.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.81, about −65% upside versus a price of ¥16.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.17, optimistic scenario ¥8.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 266M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.43% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +25.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -11.9 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688038 use?
Our models discount Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd that is +25.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd grew -11.9 % a year. The price currently implies +25.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (+25.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.72 %: that much free cash flow Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd it is ¥5.81 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of ¥16.52. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 688038 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥16.52, fair value ¥5.81, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688038?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥16.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.81). For Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd the two are ¥10.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd worth?
The market values Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd at about 2.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥16.52; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688038?
Our models span a range for Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥4.17, base ¥5.81, optimistic ¥8.06 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price ¥16.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
Balance-sheet figures for Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity −0.2%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688038 from its 52-week high?
Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd trades at ¥16.52, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥24.56 and 9% above the low of ¥15.11 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price ¥16.52, calculated fair value ¥5.81 (−65%), Quality Score 56/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688038 calculated?
We run Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was ¥16.52. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.81, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥4.17 to ¥8.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
The market capitalisation of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd is 2.2B CNY (≈ $329M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd is 7.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
The dividend yield of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
The net margin of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd is −0.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd is −0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd is −2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
The operating margin of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038)?
Revenue at Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd is growing +54.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd (688038) carry?
The net debt of Wuhan Citms Technology Co Ltd is 102M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 27, 2026