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Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd ¥15.16, price ¥23.17, upside -34.6%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · CN · ISIN CNE1000043H5

AS Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd

688408 · SHG

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value ¥15.16 · Overvalued (−35%)
!Quality 40/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +17.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/11)
!Narrow moat 18/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥173.08 ¥22.12 Fair Value ¥15.16 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥22.12 – ¥173.08 · fair‑value band ¥14.92 – ¥15.35 · the ¥23.17 price screens above the ¥15.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Arctech Solar Holding Co., Ltd. manufactures and supplies solar trackers, fixed-tilt structures, cleaning robots, and energy storage solutions worldwide.

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Arctech Solar Holding Co., Ltd. manufactures and supplies solar trackers, fixed-tilt structures, cleaning robots, and energy storage solutions worldwide. The company offers solar tracking and racking systems; Mounting System, Tracking System; Cleaning Robot; photovoltaic tracking bracket systems, fixed bracket systems, flexible, Support systems, BIPV solutions. It has a production capacity of approximately 6.4GW in China; 2.8GW production capacity in trial operation; a capacity of 3GW from the Indian manufacturing base; 3 GW Saudi and Brazil facility. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Kunshan, China.

Stock analysis

Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408) currently trades at ¥23.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥15.16, implying the stock looks roughly 52.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥18.63 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the ¥23.17 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥8.38, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥14.92 (bear) to ¥15.35 (bull), the price of ¥23.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd reported revenue of 6.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +29.8%/yr. Reported net income was −9.9M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 5.9B CNY (≈ $881M) · P/S ratio 0.98 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.7800 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin −0.1% · Return on equity −3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% · Operating margin 1.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −35%, 688408 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥14.92 Fair Value ¥15.16 Bull ¥15.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV ¥8.26 ¥8.38 ¥8.49 74
ROIC Compounder ¥8.26 ¥8.38 ¥8.49 72
Gordon GGM ¥10.82 ¥21.56 ¥32.64 67
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV ¥8.26 ¥8.38 ¥8.49 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥10.82 ¥21.56 ¥32.64 67
DDM Multi-Stage ¥10.82 ¥18.63 ¥22.75 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT ¥10.57 ¥11.60 ¥12.63 66
EV/EBITDA ¥17.05 ¥20.25 ¥23.44 67
EV/Revenue ¥9.04 ¥9.71 ¥10.38 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥9.75 ¥13.07 ¥19.51 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder ¥8.26 ¥8.38 ¥8.49 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 26
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−24.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.7% (2020) → 0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

688408 screens 53% overvalued. Compare with First Solar, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Solar · 115 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Above median
Fair Value upside −35% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Solar median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.21× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.13× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)91 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
First Solar, Inc FSLR $200.78 $392.12 +95%
Nextpower Inc NXT $82.52 $90.77 +10%
Tongwei Co 600438 ¥11.72 ¥12.13 +3%
Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER ₹2,495 ₹2,709 +9%
Jinko Solar Co 688223 ¥3.88 ¥6.47 +67%
Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH $34.42 $24.15 −30%
CSI Solar Co 688472 ¥8.60 ¥4.91 −43%
Hengdian Group 002056 ¥20.33 ¥31.86 +57%
Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE ₹907.20 ₹648.94 −28%
Trina Solar Co 688599 ¥11.14 ¥32.70 +194%

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Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd · Fair Value
¥15.16 −53%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688408

Frequently asked questions

Is Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥15.16 versus a price of ¥23.17, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688408?
Our model-based fair value for Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd is ¥15.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥23.17.
What is the quality score of 688408?
Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥15.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥14.92, optimistic scenario ¥15.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥15.16, about −35% upside versus a price of ¥23.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥14.92, optimistic scenario ¥15.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd it is ¥15.16 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥23.17. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 688408 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥23.17, fair value ¥15.16, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688408?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥23.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥15.16). For Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd the two are ¥8.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd worth?
The market values Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd at about 5.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥23.17; our models calculate a fair value of ¥15.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688408?
Our models span a range for Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥14.92, base ¥15.16, optimistic ¥15.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥23.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −3.7%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688408 from its 52-week high?
Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd trades at ¥23.17, about 57% below its 52-week high of ¥53.60 and 5% above the low of ¥22.12 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥15.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value First Solar, Inc, Nextpower Inc, Tongwei Co, Waaree Energies Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥23.17, calculated fair value ¥15.16 (−35%), Quality Score 40/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688408 calculated?
We run Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥15.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥23.17. Our model-based fair value is ¥15.16, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥15.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (¥14.92 to ¥15.35), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
The market capitalisation of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd is 5.9B CNY (≈ $881M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd is 0.98 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
Earnings per share at Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd are ¥−0.7800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
The dividend yield of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd is 4.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
The net margin of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd is −0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd is −3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
The operating margin of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
Revenue at Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd is growing −8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408)?
Earnings per share at Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd are growing −43.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408) generate?
The free cash flow of Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd is −1.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd (688408) hold?
Arctech Solar Holding Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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