Arctech Solar Holding (688408) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 6.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥16.10 to ¥17.95 (+11.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +2.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 34% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥19.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥24.00 – ¥173.08 · fair‑value band ¥16.56 – ¥19.33 · the ¥27.20 price screens above the ¥17.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Arctech Solar Holding (688408) currently trades at ¥27.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.95, implying the stock looks roughly 34.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Arctech Solar Holding generated revenue of 6.7B CNY at a net margin of -2.5%. Revenue declined 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.5B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥16.56 (bear case) to ¥19.33 (bull case); at ¥27.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -34%, 688408 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥18.63) versus Earnings-Based (¥8.38). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Arctech Solar Holding Co., Ltd. manufactures and supplies solar trackers, fixed-tilt structures, cleaning robots, and energy storage solutions worldwide.
Full company description
Arctech Solar Holding Co., Ltd. manufactures and supplies solar trackers, fixed-tilt structures, cleaning robots, and energy storage solutions worldwide. The company offers solar tracking and racking systems; Mounting System, Tracking System; Cleaning Robot; photovoltaic tracking bracket systems, fixed bracket systems, flexible, Support systems, BIPV solutions. It has a production capacity of approximately 6.4GW in China; 2.8GW production capacity in trial operation; a capacity of 3GW from the Indian manufacturing base; 3 GW Saudi and Brazil facility. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Kunshan, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arctech Solar Holding reported revenue of ¥6.9B in FY2025 versus ¥2.4B in FY2021, a compound +29.8%/yr. Reported net income was −¥9.9M in FY2025.
688408 screens 34% overvalued. Compare with First Solar, Inc →
Peer Group
Solar · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Solar median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Solar, Inc FSLR | $221.03 | $284.45 | +29% |
| Nextpower Inc NXT | $111.50 | $69.61 | -38% |
| Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER | ₹2,923 | ₹3,613 | +24% |
| Tongwei Co 600438 | ¥13.08 | ¥12.13 | -7% |
| Jinko Solar Co 688223 | ¥4.39 | ¥4.75 | +8% |
| Hengdian Group 002056 | ¥21.64 | ¥22.76 | +5% |
| CSI Solar Co 688472 | ¥10.11 | ¥7.01 | -31% |
| Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH | $44.83 | $22.20 | -50% |
| Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE | ₹1,086 | ₹912.32 | -16% |
| Trina Solar Co 688599 | ¥12.98 | ¥7.97 | -39% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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