Groundhog Inc. (6906) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Groundhog Inc. TWD 42.03, price TWD 83.00, upside -49.4%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Groundhog Inc. engages in application design, development, implementation, and installation of other information software services on intelligence platform in Taiwan, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Africa, India, Australia, and internationally.
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Groundhog Inc. engages in application design, development, implementation, and installation of other information software services on intelligence platform in Taiwan, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Africa, India, Australia, and internationally. The company offers CovMo, a cloud-based platform for geo-location; RealMotion, a crowd management solution that provides current and historical mobility insights into near-real-time human movement, empowering tourism, transport, urban planning professionals, as well as government authorities and public safety agencies; MI-DSP, an AI advertising platform; MI-DMP, a market intelligence platform; and DDKT, an audience analytics platform. It also provides mobile network technologies; algorithms and software system development; data mining; network optimization; big data and RAN analytics; mobility and mathematical modeling; time series analysis; cloud computing; customized research. The company was founded in 2001 and is based in Taipei, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Groundhog Inc. (6906) currently trades at 83.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 42.03 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 97.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 43.69 TWD per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the 83.00 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 15.13 TWD, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 35.10 TWD (bear) to 54.64 TWD (bull), the price of 83.00 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Groundhog Inc. reported revenue of 348M TWD in FY2025 versus 284M TWD in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was 61.2M TWD in FY2025, compounding +9.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.6B TWD (≈ $81.8M) · P/E ratio 35.0 · P/S ratio 6.16 · EPS (TTM) 2.37 TWD · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 17.6% · Return on equity 11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 53% fair-value upside, at −49%, 6906 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 35.10 TWDFair Value 42.03 TWDBull 54.64 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4185 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 17%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 498 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−49% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)35.0× · Pricier than median
P/B3.57× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)7.43× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF1.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA32.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 45
FUTURE (revenue growth)10· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)45· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)43· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Groundhog Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6906
Frequently asked questions
Is Groundhog Inc. (6906) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 42.03 TWD versus a price of 83.00 TWD, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6906?
Our model-based fair value for Groundhog Inc. is 42.03 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 83.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 6906?
Groundhog Inc. has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 42.03 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 35.10 TWD, optimistic scenario 54.64 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Groundhog Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 42.03 TWD, about −49% upside versus a price of 83.00 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 35.10 TWD, optimistic scenario 54.64 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
Groundhog Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 350M TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Groundhog Inc. pay a dividend?
Groundhog Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Groundhog Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +26.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6906 use?
Our models discount Groundhog Inc. at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Groundhog Inc. that is +26.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Groundhog Inc. (6906) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Groundhog Inc. grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies +26.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Groundhog Inc. (6906) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Groundhog Inc. (+26.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.30 %: that much free cash flow Groundhog Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Groundhog Inc. it is 42.03 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 83.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Groundhog Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6906 trades above its calculated fair value: price 83.00 TWD, fair value 42.03 TWD, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6906?
No. The price is what the market pays today (83.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (42.03 TWD). For Groundhog Inc. the two are 40.97 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Groundhog Inc. worth?
The market values Groundhog Inc. at about 2.6B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 83.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 42.03 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6906?
Our models span a range for Groundhog Inc.: cautious scenario 35.10 TWD, base 42.03 TWD, optimistic 54.64 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 83.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6906?
Groundhog Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 42.03 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 7.4, EV/EBITDA 32.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
Balance-sheet figures for Groundhog Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6906 from its 52-week high?
Groundhog Inc. trades at 83.00 TWD, about 26% below its 52-week high of 111.44 TWD and 39% above the low of 59.53 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 42.03 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Groundhog Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Groundhog Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 83.00 TWD, calculated fair value 42.03 TWD (−49%), Quality Score 68/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6906 calculated?
We run Groundhog Inc. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 42.03 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Groundhog Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 83.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 42.03 TWD, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Groundhog Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (54.64 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Groundhog Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
The market capitalisation of Groundhog Inc. is 2.6B TWD (≈ $81.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Groundhog Inc. is 6.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
Earnings per share at Groundhog Inc. are 2.37 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
The dividend yield of Groundhog Inc. is 2.2% (payout 75.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
The net margin of Groundhog Inc. is 17.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Groundhog Inc. is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Groundhog Inc. is 12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
The operating margin of Groundhog Inc. is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
Revenue at Groundhog Inc. is growing +1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Groundhog Inc. (6906)?
Earnings per share at Groundhog Inc. are growing +21.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Groundhog Inc. (6906) hold?
Groundhog Inc. holds more cash than debt, 647M TWD net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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