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Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance SAR 7.79, price SAR 13.00, upside -40.1%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · SA · ISIN SA000A0MR898

GU Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance

8120 · SR

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 7.79 SAR · Strongly overvalued (−40.1%)
!Quality 43/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +18.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.3% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 13/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

25.20 SAR 7.96 SAR Fair Value 7.79 SAR Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 7.96 SAR – 25.20 SAR · fair‑value band 7.05 SAR – 8.40 SAR · the 13.00 SAR price screens above the 7.79 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Gulf Union Alahlia Cooperative Insurance Company provides various insurance products and services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company offers motor, health, medical malpractice, SME medical, home, marine, engineering, and domestic labor insurance services, as well as general accident, liability, property, and protection insurances.

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Gulf Union Alahlia Cooperative Insurance Company provides various insurance products and services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The company offers motor, health, medical malpractice, SME medical, home, marine, engineering, and domestic labor insurance services, as well as general accident, liability, property, and protection insurances. The company was formerly known as Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance Co. and changed its name to Gulf Union Alahlia Cooperative Insurance Company in December 2020. Gulf Union Alahlia Cooperative Insurance Company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Dammam, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Stock analysis

Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120) currently trades at 13.00 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.79 SAR, 40.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 21.32 SAR per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the 13.00 SAR price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 7.50 SAR, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 7.05 SAR (bear) to 8.40 SAR (bull), the price of 13.00 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance reported revenue of 1.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 620M SAR in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was −83.6M SAR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 597M SAR (≈ $159M) · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) −0.8600 SAR · Net margin −7.8% · Return on equity −6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin 2.7% · Revenue (TTM) 924M SAR.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −40%, 8120 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 7.05 SAR Fair Value 7.79 SAR Bull 8.40 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV 6.82 SAR 7.50 SAR 8.05 SAR 70
ROIC Compounder 6.82 SAR 7.50 SAR 8.05 SAR 70
EV/EBITDA 16.28 SAR 21.32 SAR 26.36 SAR 64
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV 6.82 SAR 7.50 SAR 8.05 SAR 70
Multiples
EV/EBIT 15.43 SAR 20.19 SAR 24.95 SAR 63
EV/EBITDA 16.28 SAR 21.32 SAR 26.36 SAR 64
EV/Revenue 15.59 SAR 21.78 SAR 27.97 SAR 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 6.20 SAR 8.31 SAR 12.40 SAR 51
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 6.82 SAR 7.50 SAR 8.05 SAR 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 65
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 13
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+45.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +26.9% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.3% (2020) → 6.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

8120 screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with Allianz SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −40.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −4.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 2.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4.1% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.28× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.17× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Allianz SE ALV €423.50 €229.84 −46%
AXA SA CS €44.00 €36.28 −18%
Zurich Insurance Group ZURN CHF 581.20 CHF 325.51 −44%
Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G €42.75 €10.92 −74%
Sun Life Financial Inc SLF $79.48 $41.03 −48%
American International Group AIG $74.17 $71.58 −3%
Talanx AG TLX €120.80 €91.88 −24%
The Hartford Insurance Group HIG $126.04 $115.03 −9%
Arch Capital Group ACGL $94.66 $127.51 +35%
Swiss Life Holding SLHN CHF 915.80 CHF 413.93 −55%

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Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance · Fair Value
7.79 SAR −40%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8120

Frequently asked questions

Is Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.79 SAR versus a price of 13.00 SAR, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8120?
Our model-based fair value for Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance is 7.79 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13.00 SAR.
What is the quality score of 8120?
Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.79 SAR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7.05 SAR, optimistic scenario 8.40 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.79 SAR, about −40% upside versus a price of 13.00 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 7.05 SAR, optimistic scenario 8.40 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 924M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance it is 7.79 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 13.00 SAR. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8120 trades above its calculated fair value: price 13.00 SAR, fair value 7.79 SAR, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8120?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13.00 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.79 SAR). For Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance the two are 5.21 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance worth?
The market values Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance at about 597M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 13.00 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 7.79 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8120?
Our models span a range for Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance: cautious scenario 7.05 SAR, base 7.79 SAR, optimistic 8.40 SAR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 13.00 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −6.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8120 from its 52-week high?
Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance trades at 13.00 SAR, about 14% below its 52-week high of 15.10 SAR and 39% above the low of 9.33 SAR (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.79 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, AXA SA, Zurich Insurance Group, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 13.00 SAR, calculated fair value 7.79 SAR (−40%), Quality Score 43/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8120 calculated?
We run Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.79 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 13.00 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 7.79 SAR, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (8.40 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120) come from?
Earnings per share at Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance grew +10.9 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.9 %, EBIT margin −15.5 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +17.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance

How large is the market capitalisation of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
The market capitalisation of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance is 597M SAR (≈ $159M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
Earnings per share at Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance are −0.8600 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
The net margin of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance is −7.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance is −6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
The operating margin of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
Revenue at Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance is growing −4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120)?
Earnings per share at Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance are growing −79.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120) generate?
The free cash flow of Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance is −92.6M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance (8120) hold?
Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance holds more cash than debt, 45.4M SAR net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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