Horizon Food Company Limited (9564) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Horizon Food Company Limited stock SAR 11.68, price SAR 35.00, upside -66.6%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
43‑month range 29.55 SAR – 72.50 SAR · fair‑value band 7.17 SAR – 16.65 SAR · the 35.00 SAR price screens above the 11.68 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Horizon Food Company Limited engages in the cutting, processing, and packaging of meat and poultry in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally. The company offers chilled and frozen poultry, rabbits, birds, and meat, as well as sausages and hamburgers.
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It also provides meat shawarma, chicken shawarma, and doner kabab under the Iskender brand name. Horizon Food Company Limited was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Dammam, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Horizon Food Company Limited (9564) currently trades at 35.00 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.68 SAR, 66.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 12.81 SAR per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the 35.00 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3.90 SAR, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 7.17 SAR (bear) to 16.65 SAR (bull), the price of 35.00 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Horizon Food Company Limited reported revenue of 72.9M SAR in FY2025 versus 53.8M SAR in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was 5.5M SAR in FY2025, compounding −14.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 279M SAR (≈ $74.5M) Micro · P/E ratio 63.6 · P/S ratio 3.51 · EPS (TTM) 0.5500 SAR · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 3.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4% · Operating margin 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −67%, 9564 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear7.17 SARFair Value 11.68 SARBull16.65 SAR
Price 35.00 SAR · Upside -66.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4566 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 8%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.5% a year for the price.
Compare Horizon Food Company Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 627 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−66.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.7% · Below median
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)23.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)63.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.38× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.51× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow65.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA25.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Horizon Food Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9564
Frequently asked questions
Is Horizon Food Company Limited (9564) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11.68 SAR versus a price of 35.00 SAR, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9564?
Our model-based fair value for Horizon Food Company Limited is 11.68 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 35.00 SAR.
What is the quality score of 9564?
Horizon Food Company Limited has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 11.68 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7.17 SAR, optimistic scenario 16.65 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Horizon Food Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 11.68 SAR, about −67% upside versus a price of 35.00 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 7.17 SAR, optimistic scenario 16.65 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
Horizon Food Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 79.5M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Horizon Food Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +42.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.8 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9564 use?
Our models discount Horizon Food Company Limited at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Horizon Food Company Limited that is +42.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Horizon Food Company Limited (9564) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Horizon Food Company Limited grew +21.8 % a year. The price currently implies +42.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Horizon Food Company Limited (+42.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.52 %: that much free cash flow Horizon Food Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Horizon Food Company Limited it is 11.68 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 35.00 SAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Horizon Food Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 9564 trades above its calculated fair value: price 35.00 SAR, fair value 11.68 SAR, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9564?
No. The price is what the market pays today (35.00 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (11.68 SAR). For Horizon Food Company Limited the two are 23.32 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Horizon Food Company Limited worth?
The market values Horizon Food Company Limited at about 279M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 35.00 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 11.68 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9564?
Our models span a range for Horizon Food Company Limited: cautious scenario 7.17 SAR, base 11.68 SAR, optimistic 16.65 SAR per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 35.00 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9564?
Horizon Food Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 63.6 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 11.68 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 25.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
Balance-sheet figures for Horizon Food Company Limited (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 3.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9564 from its 52-week high?
Horizon Food Company Limited trades at 35.00 SAR, about 12% below its 52-week high of 39.90 SAR and 10% above the low of 31.90 SAR (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 11.68 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Horizon Food Company Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Horizon Food Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 35.00 SAR, calculated fair value 11.68 SAR (−67%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9564 calculated?
We run Horizon Food Company Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 11.68 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Horizon Food Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was 35.00 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 11.68 SAR, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Horizon Food Company Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (16.65 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (7.17 SAR to 16.65 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Horizon Food Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
The market capitalisation of Horizon Food Company Limited is 279M SAR (≈ $74.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Horizon Food Company Limited is 3.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Food Company Limited are 0.5500 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 63.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
The net margin of Horizon Food Company Limited is 5.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Horizon Food Company Limited is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Horizon Food Company Limited is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
The operating margin of Horizon Food Company Limited is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
Revenue at Horizon Food Company Limited is growing +23.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Horizon Food Company Limited (9564)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Food Company Limited are growing −45.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Horizon Food Company Limited (9564) hold?
Horizon Food Company Limited holds more cash than debt, 3.0M SAR net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 29, 2026