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Pasona Group (9D4) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pasona Group stock €10.26, price €8.27, upside +24.1%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Industrials · DE · Home Japan · ISIN JP3781490002

PG Pasona Group logo Thin data Oct 27, 2026

Pasona Group

9D4 · F

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

The stock costs 19% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value €10.26 · Undervalued (19%)
Low debt
Quality 54/100
1.0% dividend yield · Token dividend
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −6.1 %/yr in JPY)
Loss-making · -1.1% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/12)
Narrow moat 17/100
Thin data
Price via web search⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€26.27 €7.64 Fair Value €10.26 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €7.64 – €26.27 · fair‑value band €9.38 – €11.14 · the €8.27 price screens below the €10.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Pasona Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of human resources consulting, recruitment, temporary staffing, education, training, and contracting and outsourcing services in Japan.

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The company offers HR and BPO solutions, such as expert services, recruitment, and career support services; business process outsourcing; public solutions; DX promotion services; management and HR consulting; reskilling and business training/next generation leader training; and health management promotion support services.

It also provides childcare support; early childhood and child education/human resource development; nursing care facility management; support for balancing work and caregiving; and housekeeping services.

In addition, the company offers staffing, recruitment agency, executive search, and job expo; expatriate payroll, establishment of salary regulations, and global personnel system/evaluation system/work regulations; support for expanding overseas bases and business improvement proposals; and mental health care, health management support, and employee benefit services.

Further, it is involved in regional revitalization; tourism and sightseeing; restaurant and café; wellness retreat; agriculture; arts and culture/entertainment; and educational community businesses. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

Pasona Group (9D4) currently trades at €8.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.26, implying the stock looks roughly 19.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: €9.38 (bear) to €11.14 (bull), the price of €8.27 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Pasona Group reported revenue of ¥308B in FY2026 versus ¥366B in FY2022, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −¥3.4B in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap €309M Small · EPS (TTM) €−0.5000 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin −1.1% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% · Operating margin 0.2% · Revenue (TTM) ¥308B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at 24%, 9D4 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €9.38 Fair Value €10.26 Bull €11.14
Price €8.27 · Upside +24.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA €9.38 €10.26 €11.14 67
NCAV (Graham) €3.08 €4.66 €5.83 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €9.38 €10.26 €11.14 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €3.08 €4.66 €5.83 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 37
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 83
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 57
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 61
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 30
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 12
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 99
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.0% (2022) → −0.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Staffing & Employment Services · 82 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside +24.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −1.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −1.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.26× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Staffing & Employment Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.41× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.17× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.1× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)65 · sector 66
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 19
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)20 · sector 64

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Staffing & Employment Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Shanghai Foreign Service Holding 600662 ¥4.11 ¥9.02 +119% vs 9D4
Kelly Services, Inc KELYB $26.00 $35.91 +38% vs 9D4
Korn Ferry, KFY $78.30 $104.11 +33% vs 9D4
TriNet Group TNET $75.78 $97.16 +28% vs 9D4
Grupa Pracuj S.A GPP 53.80 PLN 65.88 PLN +22% vs 9D4
Adecco Group ADEN CHF 22.62 CHF 26.04 +15% vs 9D4
Kforce Inc KFRC $51.01 $35.35 −31% vs 9D4
ManpowerGroup Inc MAN $47.53 $27.78 −42% vs 9D4
Robert Half Inc RHI $45.87 $24.79 −46% vs 9D4
Insperity, Inc NSP $54.44 $17.33 −68% vs 9D4

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Pasona Group · Fair Value
€10.26 +19%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pasona Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9D4

Frequently asked questions

Is Pasona Group (9D4) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.26 versus a price of €8.27, about +24% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9D4?
Our model-based fair value for Pasona Group is €10.26 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €8.27.
What is the quality score of 9D4?
Pasona Group has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pasona Group (9D4)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.26 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.38, optimistic scenario €11.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pasona Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €10.26, about +24% upside versus a price of €8.27 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €9.38, optimistic scenario €11.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pasona Group (9D4)?
Pasona Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥308B (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Pasona Group pay a dividend?
Pasona Group currently shows a dividend yield of 0.98% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Pasona Group (9D4)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pasona Group it is €10.26 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of €8.27. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pasona Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 9D4 trades below its calculated fair value: price €8.27, fair value €10.26, a gap of about +24% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9D4?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€8.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.26). For Pasona Group the two are €1.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pasona Group worth?
The market values Pasona Group at about €309M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is €8.27; our models calculate a fair value of €10.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9D4?
Our models span a range for Pasona Group: cautious scenario €9.38, base €10.26, optimistic €11.14 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price €8.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pasona Group (9D4)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pasona Group (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity −2.4%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9D4 from its 52-week high?
Pasona Group trades at €8.27, about 23% below its 52-week high of €10.71 and 14% above the low of €7.25 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pasona Group?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adecco Group, Robert Half Inc, Korn Ferry,, TriNet Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pasona Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price €8.27, calculated fair value €10.26 (+24%), Quality Score 54/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9D4 calculated?
We run Pasona Group through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €10.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Pasona Group currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pasona Group (9D4)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €8.27. Our model-based fair value is €10.26, about +24% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pasona Group right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€9.38). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Pasona Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Pasona Group (9D4)?
The market capitalisation of Pasona Group is €309M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Pasona Group (9D4)?
Earnings per share at Pasona Group are €−0.5000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pasona Group (9D4)?
The dividend yield of Pasona Group is 1.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pasona Group (9D4)?
The net margin of Pasona Group is −1.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pasona Group (9D4)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pasona Group is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pasona Group (9D4)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pasona Group is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pasona Group (9D4)?
The operating margin of Pasona Group is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pasona Group (9D4)?
Revenue at Pasona Group is growing −1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pasona Group (9D4)?
Earnings per share at Pasona Group are growing +44.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Pasona Group (9D4) generate?
The free cash flow of Pasona Group is −¥18.9B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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