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Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Atlantic Lithium Limited A$0.15, price A$0.27, upside -43.4%, quality 26 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000237554

AL Thin data Jun 24, 2026

Atlantic Lithium Limited

A11 · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.1500 · Strongly overvalued (−43.4%)
!Quality 26/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +198.4 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.9650 A$0.1100 Fair Value A$0.1500 Sep 2022 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

48‑month range A$0.1100 – A$0.9650 · fair‑value band A$0.1100 – A$0.1900 · the A$0.2650 price screens above the A$0.1500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Atlantic Lithium Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. The company primarily explores for lithium deposits. The company evaluation, development and production of its flagship project is the Ewoyaa lithium project located in Ghana.

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Atlantic Lithium Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. The company primarily explores for lithium deposits. The company evaluation, development and production of its flagship project is the Ewoyaa lithium project located in Ghana. It holds interest in a lithium property covering an area of 771 square kilometers in Côte d'Ivoire. The company was formerly known as IronRidge Resources Limited and changed its name to Atlantic Lithium Limited in November 2021. Atlantic Lithium Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11) currently trades at A$0.2650, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1500, 43.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.1100 (bear) to A$0.1900 (bull), the price of A$0.2650 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Atlantic Lithium Limited reported revenue of A$10.6K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$6.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$236M (≈ $165M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −25.5% · Operating margin −4,395% · Revenue growth (YoY) −91.7% · Free cash flow −A$24.5M · Net cash A$5.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −43%, A11 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.1100 Fair Value A$0.1500 Bull A$0.1900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0300 A$0.0300 A$0.0500 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0300 A$0.0300 A$0.0500 52

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 26/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 15
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 22/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−98.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+198.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +27.8% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+79.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−13,945,104.4% (2020) → −61,240.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

A11 screens overvalued: fair value 43% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Atlantic Lithium Limited · Fair Value
A$0.1500 −43%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Atlantic Lithium Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/A11

Frequently asked questions

Is Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1500 versus a price of A$0.2650, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of A11?
Our model-based fair value for Atlantic Lithium Limited is A$0.1500 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2650.
What is the quality score of A11?
Atlantic Lithium Limited has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1500 (as of Jun 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1100, optimistic scenario A$0.1900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Atlantic Lithium Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1500, about −43% upside versus a price of A$0.2650 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1100, optimistic scenario A$0.1900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Atlantic Lithium Limited it is A$0.1500 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.2650. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Atlantic Lithium Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jun 24, 2026, A11 trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.2650, fair value A$0.1500, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of A11?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2650); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1500). For Atlantic Lithium Limited the two are A$0.1150 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Atlantic Lithium Limited worth?
The market values Atlantic Lithium Limited at about A$236M (market capitalisation, as of Jun 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2650; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about A11?
Our models span a range for Atlantic Lithium Limited: cautious scenario A$0.1100, base A$0.1500, optimistic A$0.1900 per share (as of Jun 24, 2026, price A$0.2650). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is A11 from its 52-week high?
Atlantic Lithium Limited trades at A$0.2650, about 34% below its 52-week high of A$0.4000 and 77% above the low of A$0.1500 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Atlantic Lithium Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Atlantic Lithium Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jun 24, 2026: price A$0.2650, calculated fair value A$0.1500 (−43%), Quality Score 26/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of A11 calculated?
We run Atlantic Lithium Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Atlantic Lithium Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$0.2650. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1500, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Atlantic Lithium Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Atlantic Lithium Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11)?
The market capitalisation of Atlantic Lithium Limited is A$236M (≈ $165M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11)?
Earnings per share at Atlantic Lithium Limited are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Atlantic Lithium Limited is −13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Atlantic Lithium Limited is −25.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11)?
The operating margin of Atlantic Lithium Limited is −4,395% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11)?
Revenue at Atlantic Lithium Limited is growing −91.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11) generate?
The free cash flow of Atlantic Lithium Limited is −A$24.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Atlantic Lithium Limited (A11) hold?
Atlantic Lithium Limited holds more cash than debt, A$5.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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