Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. stock C$4.43, price C$8.17, that is 45.8% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$6.57 – C$21.28 · fair‑value band C$4.07 – C$5.54 · the C$8.17 price screens above the C$4.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, development, and exploration of minerals and precious metals in Africa. The company explores gold, platinum, palladium, rhodium, nickel, copper, zinc, germanium, silver, and lead deposits.
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Its projects include the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex mine located in the Central African Copperbelt; the Kipushi Zinc mine in Southern Haut-Katanga Province, Democratic Republic of Congo; and the Platreef PGM-Nickel mine located in the Northern Limb of South Africa's Bushveld Igneous Complex.
It also holds interest in the Western Foreland exploration project covering an area of approximately 2,390 square kilometers located in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company was formerly known as Ivanplats Limited and changed its name to Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. in August 2013.
The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN) currently trades at C$8.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$4.43, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of C$13.02 per share, and 4 of the 9 models we run sit above the C$8.17 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$3.84, and 5 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$4.07 (bear) to C$5.54 (bull), the price of C$8.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. reported revenue of $449M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was $266M in FY2025, compounding +48.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap C$12.7B (≈ $9.0B) Mid · P/E ratio 54.5 · P/S ratio 32.3 · EPS (TTM) C$0.1500 · Net margin 59.2% · Return on equity 2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −46%, IVN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$4.07Fair Value C$4.43BullC$5.54
Price C$8.17 · Downside -45.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.1274 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1,000.9%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.8%
’09
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +43.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +43.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 43.8% / −14.5%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.031 per share, median 0.12 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business shows modest strength through record copper output and hybrid solar energy savings yet its main weakness is persistent negative free cash flow that limits durable moat potential.
Main risk: Enforcement of DRC mining code rules requiring equity transfer to Congolese nationals might reduce Ivanhoe's ownership share or future cash flows from its Kamoa-Kakula operations.
Bull case: Ivanhoe could secure stable regulatory terms through compliance and partnerships, allowing it to maintain or expand its effective interest while benefiting from rising copper demand.
Bear case: Persistent regulatory pressure in the DRC might force ownership dilution or operational constraints at Kamoa-Kakula, limiting the company's ability to capture full value from its primary asset.
Ivanhoe Mines posted record copper output at Kamoa-Kakula in Q3 while ramping up its on-site hybrid solar facility that cut diesel use by 40 percent. Production guidance for 2026 remains unchanged yet is now tracking toward the lower end of the range. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the operational gains and lower energy costs more than offset the softer near-term volumes, or will further adjustments to expectations follow?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 374 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Below median
Fair Value upside−47.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.1% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)23.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)57.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)54.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.46× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)14.72× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA95.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 94
PAST (return on equity)8· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$4.43 versus a price of C$8.17, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IVN?
Our model-based fair value for Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is C$4.43 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$8.17.
What is the quality score of IVN?
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$4.43 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$4.07, optimistic scenario C$5.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$4.43, about 46% lower versus a price of C$8.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$4.07, optimistic scenario C$5.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$586M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. it is C$4.43 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of C$8.17. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, IVN trades above its calculated fair value: price C$8.17, fair value C$4.43, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$8.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$4.43). For Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. the two are C$3.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. worth?
The market values Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. at about C$12.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is C$8.17; our models calculate a fair value of C$4.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IVN?
Our models span a range for Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.: cautious scenario C$4.07, base C$4.43, optimistic C$5.54 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price C$8.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IVN?
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 54.5 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$4.43 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 80.9. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 14.7, EV/EBITDA 95.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 2.1%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IVN from its 52-week high?
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. trades at C$8.17, about 57% below its 52-week high of C$18.81 and at the low of C$8.17 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$4.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price C$8.17, calculated fair value C$4.43 (−46%), Quality Score 38/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IVN calculated?
We run Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$4.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was C$8.17. Our model-based fair value is C$4.43, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$5.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
The market capitalisation of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is C$12.7B (≈ $9.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is 32.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
Earnings per share at Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. are C$0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 54.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
The net margin of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is 59.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
The operating margin of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN)?
Revenue at Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is growing +57.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN) generate?
The free cash flow of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is −C$477M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN) carry?
The net debt of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is C$491M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 4, 2026