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CMOC Group (603993) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 383B CNY

CG CMOC Group 603993 · SHG
Price¥20.37
Fair Value¥16.15
Upside-20.7%
Quality63/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.57% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/14)
Wide moat 70/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥12.11 – ¥39.43 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +15.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 21% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (¥12.11 to ¥39.43). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥27.03 ¥4.09 Fair Value ¥16.15 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.09 – ¥27.03 · fair‑value band ¥12.11 – ¥39.43 · the ¥20.37 price screens above the ¥16.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

CMOC Group (603993) currently trades at ¥20.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥16.15, implying the stock looks roughly 20.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, CMOC Group generated revenue of 227B CNY at a net margin of 10.6%. Revenue grew 44.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 377M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥12.11 (bear case) to ¥39.43 (bull case); at ¥20.37, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 175% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at -21%, 603993 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥15.13 ¥27.61 ¥53.93 80
Residual Income ¥8.35 ¥11.40 ¥73.20 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥23.28 ¥46.39 ¥90.98 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥15.94 ¥24.62 ¥53.00 38
Owner Earnings ¥20.88 ¥46.54 ¥102.83 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥22.62 ¥40.82 ¥79.16 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥27.04 ¥49.77 ¥94.47 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥18.97 ¥41.54 ¥72.53 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥20.27 ¥49.47 ¥70.25 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥24.55 ¥59.22 ¥121.81 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥18.53 ¥41.42 ¥79.63 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥7.92 ¥55.24 ¥77.52 54
Lynch FV ¥22.37 ¥31.95 ¥41.54 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥22.37 ¥31.95 ¥41.54 46
EPV ¥19.85 ¥23.04 ¥25.88 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.01 ¥6.56 ¥11.04 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.01 ¥5.37 ¥6.84 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥17.47 ¥23.30 ¥29.12 63
P/S Multiple ¥14.85 ¥19.80 ¥24.75 58
P/B Multiple ¥10.62 ¥14.16 ¥17.70 55
EV/EBIT ¥34.79 ¥45.79 ¥56.80 53
EV/EBITDA ¥29.69 ¥39.00 ¥48.30 54
EV/Revenue ¥22.48 ¥31.36 ¥40.24 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.36 ¥3.16 ¥4.72 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥15.13 ¥27.61 ¥53.93 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥23.28 ¥46.39 ¥90.98 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥8.35 ¥11.40 ¥73.20 76
ROIC Compounder ¥23.50 ¥32.11 ¥43.65 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥27.55 ¥39.35 ¥51.16 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥41.54) versus Asset-Based (¥3.16). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 227B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +44.3%
Net margin 10.6%
Return on equity 28.8%
Free cash flow 13.9B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 18.9
More key figures
Operating margin 19.7%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.9500
Dividend yield 1.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +100%
Net cash 377M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 63
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

CMOC Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, and smelting of base and rare metals in Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe.

Full company description

CMOC Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, and smelting of base and rare metals in Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe. It operates through Molybdenum and Tungsten Related Products; Niobium and Phosphorus Related Products; Copper-Cobalt Related Products; Mineral and Metal Trade; Refined Metals Trade; and Others segments. The company offers copper, gold, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and niobium; and phosphate fertilizer. It also engages in trading in base metals, and molybdenum and tungstenic products; selection, processing, refining, and sale of mineral products; import and export of goods and technology; consulting; asset and investment management; enterprise operation and management; technology services; logistics transportation; technical services and software development; and hotel operation activities. The company was formerly known as China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CMOC Group Limited in June 2022. CMOC Group Limited was founded in 1969 and is based in Luoyang, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CMOC Group reported revenue of ¥207B in FY2025 versus ¥174B in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥20.3B in FY2025, compounding +41.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
207B CNY
Latest YoY
−3.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+6.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+12.8%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y)
+27.9%
Revenue +4.4%/yr
FY21 ¥174B
FY22 ¥173B
FY23 ¥186B
FY24 ¥213B
FY25 ¥207B
Net income +41.3%/yr
FY21 ¥5.1B
FY22 ¥6.1B
FY23 ¥8.2B
FY24 ¥13.5B
FY25 ¥20.3B

603993 screens 21% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CMOC Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603993

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 477 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −21% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 29% · Top 25%
Return on assets 15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 44% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.65× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.69× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 4.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.5× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 6 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 23
PAST 100 · sector 0
HEALTH 99 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 31 · sector 23

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHPN 1,425 MXN 942.42 MXN -34%
Rio Tinto Group RIO A$164.89 A$81.76 -50%
Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB 199.23 MXN 187.72 MXN -6%
Vale S.A VALE $14.19 $9.14 -36%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.05 SAR 33.87 SAR -42%
Fortescue Ltd FMG A$18.47 A$18.62 +1%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥74.71 ¥9.55 -87%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹521.95 ₹576.80 +11%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥39.56 ¥10.59 -73%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,043,000 KRW 646,063 KRW -38%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CMOC Group (603993) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥16.15 versus a price of ¥20.37, about −21% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603993?
Our model-based fair value for CMOC Group is ¥16.15 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥20.37.
What is the quality score of 603993?
CMOC Group has a Quality Score of 63/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CMOC Group (603993)?
CMOC Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 227B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 603993?
The net profit margin of CMOC Group is about 10.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CMOC Group pay a dividend?
CMOC Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.53% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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