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Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. $16.32, price $11.52, upside +41.7%, quality 12 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · US · ISIN US6420451089

AE Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

AESI · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $16.32 · Undervalued (+42%)
!Quality 12/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +57.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·4.34% dividend yield
!Trails peers (2/12)
!Narrow moat 13/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$23.76 $8.10 Fair Value $16.32 Mar 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

43‑month range $8.10 – $23.76 · fair‑value band $9.14 – $22.29 · the $11.52 price screens below the $16.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. produces proppants and provides logistics and distributed power solutions in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. It operates through two segments: Sand and Logistics, and Power.

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Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. produces proppants and provides logistics and distributed power solutions in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. It operates through two segments: Sand and Logistics, and Power. The Sand and Logistics segment operates fourteen proppant production facilities, including large-scale in-basin plants and a distributed mining network. This segment sells products and services primarily to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies, hydraulic fracturing services, and oilfield services companies; and produces locally sourced proppants, such as 40/70-mesh and 100-mesh sand, as well as both dry and damp sand options. It also offers a differentiated logistics platform featuring a fleet of fit-for-purpose trucks, trailers, wellsite equipment, and a 42-mile Dune Express conveyor system for proppant delivery. The Power segment provides distributed power solutions through a fleet of natural gas-powered reciprocating generators designed for heavy-duty, mission-critical applications, primarily supporting oil and gas production and artificial lift operations. The company also offers transportation, storage, contract labor, and distributes power rentals to the oil and gas industry. Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. formerly known as New Atlas HoldCo. Inc. Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Stock analysis

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) currently trades at $11.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.32, implying the stock looks roughly 29.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $9.45 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $11.52 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.48, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $9.14 (bear) to $22.29 (bull), the price of $11.52 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $172M in FY2021, a compound +58.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$50.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.8B · P/S ratio 2.12 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8000 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin −4.6% · Return on equity −8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1% · Operating margin −13.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 42%, AESI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.14 Fair Value $16.32 Bull $22.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $5.74 $10.34 $14.24 66
DDM Multi-Stage $5.74 $9.45 $11.05 65
NCAV (Graham) $4.84 $6.48 $9.68 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $5.74 $10.34 $14.24 66
DDM Multi-Stage $5.74 $9.45 $11.05 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.84 $6.48 $9.68 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 12/100

Of which business quality 18 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 11
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 17
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 12
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 32
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.1% (2020) → −1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 193 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 12 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +36% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −13% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −11% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.45× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.65× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 16.9× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)89 · sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 8
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)78 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)87 · sector 34

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SLB N.V SLB $52.12 $28.66 −45%
Baker Hughes Company BKR $57.26 $32.40 −43%
TechnipFMC plc FTI $70.82 $27.68 −61%
Halliburton Company HAL $32.85 $21.50 −35%
Tenaris S.A TEN €24.55 €18.99 −23%
Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 ¥118.92 ¥128.30 +8%
Saipem SpA SPM €4.34 €2.72 −37%
Subsea 7 S.A SUBC kr 324.20 kr 262.95 −19%
China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 ¥12.23 ¥13.04 +7%
Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT €222.60 €244.86 +10%

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Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. · Fair Value
$16.32 +29%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AESI

Frequently asked questions

Is Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.32 versus a price of $11.52, about +42% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AESI?
Our model-based fair value for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is $16.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.52.
What is the quality score of AESI?
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. has a Quality Score of 12/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.14, optimistic scenario $22.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.32, about +42% upside versus a price of $11.52 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.14, optimistic scenario $22.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. pay a dividend?
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. it is $16.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.52. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AESI trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.52, fair value $16.32, a gap of about +42% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AESI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.32). For Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. the two are $4.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. worth?
The market values Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.52; our models calculate a fair value of $16.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AESI?
Our models span a range for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.: cautious scenario $9.14, base $16.32, optimistic $22.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −8.0%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 12/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AESI from its 52-week high?
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. trades at $11.52, about 42% below its 52-week high of $19.75 and 42% above the low of $8.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.52, calculated fair value $16.32 (+42%), Quality Score 12/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AESI calculated?
We run Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. currently trades 42 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.52. Our model-based fair value is $16.32, about +42% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (12/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($9.14 to $22.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The market capitalisation of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is 2.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. are $−0.8000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The dividend yield of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is 4.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The net margin of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is −4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is −8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is 13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The operating margin of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is −13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Revenue at Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is growing −10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. are growing −96.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) generate?
The free cash flow of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is −$30.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) carry?
The net debt of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is $538M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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