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Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. stock $8.66, price $5.41, upside +60.0%, quality 21 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Energy US

AE Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

AESI · US
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 38% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $8.66 · Strongly undervalued (38%)
Low debt
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 19% above the price ($6.46).
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +57.8 %/yr in USD)
9.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Quality 21/100
Loss-making · -11.1% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 13/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$23.76 $5.32 Fair Value $8.66 Mar 2023 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

44‑month range $5.32 – $23.76 · fair‑value band $6.46 – $12.92 · the $5.41 price screens below the $8.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. produces proppants and provides logistics and distributed power solutions in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. It operates through two segments: Sand and Logistics, and Power.

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The Sand and Logistics segment operates fourteen proppant production facilities, including large-scale in-basin plants and a distributed mining network.

This segment sells products and services primarily to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies, hydraulic fracturing services, and oilfield services companies; and produces locally sourced proppants, such as 40/70-mesh and 100-mesh sand, as well as both dry and damp sand options.

It also offers a differentiated logistics platform featuring a fleet of fit-for-purpose trucks, trailers, wellsite equipment, and a 42-mile Dune Express conveyor system for proppant delivery.

The Power segment provides distributed power solutions through a fleet of natural gas-powered reciprocating generators designed for heavy-duty, mission-critical applications, primarily supporting oil and gas production and artificial lift operations.

The company also offers transportation, storage, contract labor, and distributes power rentals to the oil and gas industry. Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. formerly known as New Atlas HoldCo. Inc. Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Stock analysis

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) currently trades at $5.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.66, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $6.46 (bear) to $12.92 (bull), the price of $5.41 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $172M in FY2021, a compound +58.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$50.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.0B Small · P/S ratio 0.95 · EPS (TTM) $−0.9500 · Dividend yield 9.2% · Net margin −11.1% · Return on equity −9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −6.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 60%, AESI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $6.46 Fair Value $8.66 Bull $12.92
Price $5.41 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $3.50 $4.69 $7.00 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.50 $4.69 $7.00 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 21/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 11
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 11
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 17
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 41
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 12
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 21
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 12
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 30
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • SaleChris Scholla10% owner2× since Nov 18, 2025: 61,062 shares, avg. $9.25$565,035Mar 6, 2026
  • SaleGregory M ShepardOther230,000 shares at $11.88$2.7MFeb 18, 2026

Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.1% (2020) → −1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 166 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 21 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −11.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −6.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 1.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 9.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.45× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.84× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.95× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 14.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)8 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)78 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 44

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT €181.30 €199.62 +10% vs AESI
Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 ¥79.44 ¥87.38 +10% vs AESI
China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 ¥12.75 ¥13.04 +2% vs AESI
Subsea 7 S.A SUBC kr 304.80 kr 257.37 −16% vs AESI
Halliburton Company HAL $31.84 $21.72 −32% vs AESI
Baker Hughes Company BKR $47.87 $32.37 −32% vs AESI
Tenaris S.A TEN €26.64 €17.62 −34% vs AESI
Saipem SpA SPM €4.24 €2.72 −36% vs AESI
SLB N.V SLB $49.92 $29.03 −42% vs AESI
TechnipFMC plc FTI $63.52 $28.12 −56% vs AESI

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Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AESI

Frequently asked questions

Is Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.66 versus a price of $5.41, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AESI?
Our model-based fair value for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is $8.66 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.41.
What is the quality score of AESI?
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.66 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.46, optimistic scenario $12.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.66, about +60% upside versus a price of $5.41 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.46, optimistic scenario $12.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. pay a dividend?
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 9.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. pays a dividend of $0.5 per share a year, a dividend yield of 9.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 14, 2025. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. it is $8.66 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $5.41. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, AESI trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.41, fair value $8.66, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AESI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.66). For Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. the two are $3.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. worth?
The market values Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $5.41; our models calculate a fair value of $8.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AESI?
Our models span a range for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.: cautious scenario $6.46, base $8.66, optimistic $12.92 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $5.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −9.9%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AESI from its 52-week high?
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. trades at $5.41, about 73% below its 52-week high of $19.75 and 2% above the low of $5.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, Halliburton Company, Tenaris S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $5.41, calculated fair value $8.66 (+60%), Quality Score 21/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AESI calculated?
We run Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $8.66 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $5.41. Our model-based fair value is $8.66, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (21/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.46). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($6.46 to $12.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The market capitalisation of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is 0.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. are $−0.9500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The dividend yield of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is 9.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The net margin of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is −11.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is −9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is 13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
The operating margin of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is −6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Revenue at Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is growing +1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI)?
Earnings per share at Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. are growing −96.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) generate?
The free cash flow of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is −$30.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) carry?
The net debt of Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. is $538M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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