Atlas Energy Solutions Inc (AESI) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $1.8B
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc
AESI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −21.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (11/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($9.98 to $24.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
41‑month range $8.10 – $23.76 · fair‑value band $9.98 – $24.90 · the $11.27 price screens below the $18.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc (AESI) currently trades at $11.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.03, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 11/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Atlas Energy Solutions Inc generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of -9.3%. Revenue declined 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.0%. Net debt stands at $538M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.98 (bear case) to $24.90 (bull case); at $11.27, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at 60%, AESI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($9.45) versus Asset-Based ($6.48). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 18 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. produces proppants and provides logistics and distributed power solutions in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. It operates through two segments: Sand and Logistics, and Power.
Full company description
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. produces proppants and provides logistics and distributed power solutions in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. It operates through two segments: Sand and Logistics, and Power. The Sand and Logistics segment operates fourteen proppant production facilities, including large-scale in-basin plants and a distributed mining network. This segment sells products and services primarily to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies, hydraulic fracturing services, and oilfield services companies; and produces locally sourced proppants, such as 40/70-mesh and 100-mesh sand, as well as both dry and damp sand options. It also offers a differentiated logistics platform featuring a fleet of fit-for-purpose trucks, trailers, wellsite equipment, and a 42-mile Dune Express conveyor system for proppant delivery. The Power segment provides distributed power solutions through a fleet of natural gas-powered reciprocating generators designed for heavy-duty, mission-critical applications, primarily supporting oil and gas production and artificial lift operations. The company also offers transportation, storage, contract labor, and distributes power rentals to the oil and gas industry. Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. formerly known as New Atlas HoldCo. Inc. Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $172M in FY2021, a compound +58.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$50.3M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 191 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLB N.V SLBN | 836.00 MXN | 533.97 MXN | -36% |
| Baker Hughes Company BKR | $55.95 | $33.55 | -40% |
| TechnipFMC plc FTI | $74.57 | $27.57 | -63% |
| Halliburton Company HAL | $35.22 | $21.50 | -39% |
| Tenaris S.A TS | $57.16 | $45.68 | -20% |
| Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 | ¥138.79 | ¥34.17 | -75% |
| Saipem SpA SPM | €4.20 | €2.72 | -35% |
| Subsea 7 S.A SUBC | kr 319.00 | kr 227.98 | -29% |
| China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 | ¥12.08 | ¥12.64 | +5% |
| Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT | €188.10 | €95.01 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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