Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS stock TRY 226, price TRY 203, upside +11.1%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?No
In an uptrend?Yes
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.67 TRY – 264.50 TRY · fair‑value band 136.20 TRY – 289.56 TRY · the 203.00 TRY price screens below the 225.61 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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AgeSA Hayat ve Emeklilik Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance products in Turkey. It operates in four segments: Life Protection, Savings Life, Non-Life, And Private Pension.
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The company offers life insurance products, including credit-linked, non-credit-linked, premium-refundable life insurance, insurance policies, VIP, credit protection, and savings life insurance, as well as endowment products.
It also provides personal accident insurance comprising advantageous plus personal, akbank personal accident, and express accident insurance.
In addition, the company offers private pension system plans, including future cumulative, pension investment, VIP cumulative, prestigious pension investment, Turkish citizenship, pension income, and auto-enrollment plans.
The company was formerly known as AvivaSA Emeklilik ve Hayat A.S. and changed its name to AgeSA Hayat ve Emeklilik Anonim Sirketi in August 2021. AgeSA Hayat ve Emeklilik Anonim Sirketi was incorporated in 1941 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA) currently trades at 203.00 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 225.61 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 10.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 225.61 TRY per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the 203.00 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 29.71 TRY, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 136.20 TRY (bear) to 289.56 TRY (bull), the price of 203.00 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS reported revenue of 45.7B TRY in FY2025 versus 2.9B TRY in FY2021, a compound +98.7%/yr. Reported net income was 5.6B TRY in FY2025, compounding +79.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 36.5B TRY (≈ $733M) Small · P/E ratio 5.3 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) 38.39 TRY · Net margin 14.1% · Return on equity 67.9% · Return on assets 1.3% · Operating margin 19.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 11%, AGESA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear136.20 TRYFair Value 225.61 TRYBull289.56 TRY
Price 203.00 TRY · Upside +11.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (31.76 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+88.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+83.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+87.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+72.8%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+73.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+73.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
2025 sits 300% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −31.3% a year for the price.
Compare Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+11.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)67.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)14.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)38.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGESA
Frequently asked questions
Is Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 225.61 TRY versus a price of 203.00 TRY, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGESA?
Our model-based fair value for Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 225.61 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 203.00 TRY.
What is the quality score of AGESA?
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 225.61 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 136.20 TRY, optimistic scenario 289.56 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 225.61 TRY, about +11% upside versus a price of 203.00 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 136.20 TRY, optimistic scenario 289.56 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 57.1B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS would have to grow free cash flow by -18.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +87.5 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGESA use?
Our models discount Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS at 14.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS that is -18.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS grew +87.5 % a year. The price currently implies -18.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (-18.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.62 %: that much free cash flow Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS it is 225.61 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 203.00 TRY. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, AGESA trades below its calculated fair value: price 203.00 TRY, fair value 225.61 TRY, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGESA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (203.00 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (225.61 TRY). For Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS the two are 22.61 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS worth?
The market values Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS at about 36.5B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 203.00 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 225.61 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGESA?
Our models span a range for Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS: cautious scenario 136.20 TRY, base 225.61 TRY, optimistic 289.56 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 203.00 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGESA?
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 225.61 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 67.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGESA from its 52-week high?
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS trades at 203.00 TRY, about 23% below its 52-week high of 264.50 TRY and 4% above the low of 194.67 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 225.61 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 203.00 TRY, calculated fair value 225.61 TRY (+11%), Quality Score 45/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGESA calculated?
We run Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 225.61 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 203.00 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 225.61 TRY, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS right now?
A fairly wide model range (136.20 TRY to 289.56 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The market capitalisation of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 36.5B TRY (≈ $733M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 0.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Earnings per share at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS are 38.39 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The net margin of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 14.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 67.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The operating margin of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Revenue at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is growing +38.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +83.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Earnings per share at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS are growing +72.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Oct 29, 2026