Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.67 TRY – 264.50 TRY · fair‑value band 218.28 TRY – 1,425 TRY · the 254.00 TRY price screens below the 356.27 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
AgeSA Hayat ve Emeklilik Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance products in Turkey. It operates in four segments: Life Protection, Savings Life, Non-Life, And Private Pension.
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AgeSA Hayat ve Emeklilik Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance products in Turkey. It operates in four segments: Life Protection, Savings Life, Non-Life, And Private Pension. The company offers life insurance products, including credit-linked, non-credit-linked, premium-refundable life insurance, insurance policies, VIP, credit protection, and savings life insurance, as well as endowment products. It also provides personal accident insurance comprising advantageous plus personal, akbank personal accident, and express accident insurance. In addition, the company offers private pension system plans, including future cumulative, pension investment, VIP cumulative, prestigious pension investment, Turkish citizenship, pension income, and auto-enrollment plans. The company was formerly known as AvivaSA Emeklilik ve Hayat A.S. and changed its name to AgeSA Hayat ve Emeklilik Anonim Sirketi in August 2021. AgeSA Hayat ve Emeklilik Anonim Sirketi was incorporated in 1941 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA) currently trades at 254.00 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 356.27 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 28.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 509.83 TRY per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the 254.00 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 37.56 TRY, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 218.28 TRY (bear) to 1,425 TRY (bull), the price of 254.00 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS reported revenue of 45.7B TRY in FY2025 versus 2.9B TRY in FY2021, a compound +98.7%/yr. Reported net income was 5.6B TRY in FY2025, compounding +79.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 45.7B TRY (≈ $942M) · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 0.91 · EPS (TTM) 34.05 TRY · Net margin 12.2% · Return on equity 77.2% · Return on assets 1.2% · Operating margin 16.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 40%, AGESA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 218.28 TRYFair Value 356.27 TRYBull 1,425 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (23.97 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+88.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+83.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+87.5%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+72.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+73.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+73.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
2025 sits 300% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−11% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)77% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth33% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGESA
Frequently asked questions
Is Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 356.27 TRY versus a price of 254.00 TRY, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGESA?
Our model-based fair value for Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 356.27 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 254.00 TRY.
What is the quality score of AGESA?
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 356.27 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 218.28 TRY, optimistic scenario 1,425 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 356.27 TRY, about +40% upside versus a price of 254.00 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 218.28 TRY, optimistic scenario 1,425 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 48.5B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS would have to grow free cash flow by -11.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +87.5 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AGESA use?
Our models discount Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS at 14.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS that is -11.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS grew +87.5 % a year. The price currently implies -11.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (-11.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.88 %: that much free cash flow Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS it is 356.27 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 254.00 TRY. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AGESA trades below its calculated fair value: price 254.00 TRY, fair value 356.27 TRY, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGESA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (254.00 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (356.27 TRY). For Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS the two are 102.27 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS worth?
The market values Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS at about 45.7B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 254.00 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 356.27 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGESA?
Our models span a range for Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS: cautious scenario 218.28 TRY, base 356.27 TRY, optimistic 1,425 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 254.00 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGESA?
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 356.27 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.2, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 77.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGESA from its 52-week high?
Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS trades at 254.00 TRY, about 4% below its 52-week high of 264.00 TRY and 72% above the low of 148.08 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 356.27 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Berkshire Hathaway Inc, Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 254.00 TRY, calculated fair value 356.27 TRY (+40%), Quality Score 50/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGESA calculated?
We run Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 356.27 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS currently trades 40 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS right now?
The model range is unusually wide (218.28 TRY to 1,425 TRY). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The market capitalisation of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 45.7B TRY (≈ $942M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 0.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Earnings per share at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS are 34.05 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The net margin of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 12.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 77.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The return on assets (ROA) of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
The operating margin of Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Revenue at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS is growing +33.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +83.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS (AGESA)?
Earnings per share at Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik AS are growing +48.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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