Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. €24.15, price €29.12, upside -17.1%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.02 – €30.91 · fair‑value band €14.20 – €34.79 · the €29.12 price screens above the €24.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI) currently trades at €29.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €24.15, 17.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €28.33 per share, and 7 of the 23 models we run sit above the €29.12 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.91, and 16 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €14.20 (bear) to €34.79 (bull), the price of €29.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ajinomoto Co. Inc. reported revenue of ¥1.6T in FY2026 versus ¥1.1T in FY2022, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥135B in FY2026, compounding +15.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €27.9B · Net margin 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% · Free cash flow ¥115B · Net debt ¥315B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −17%, AJI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €14.20Fair Value €24.15Bull €34.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 12%
2026 sits 65% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.2%/yr over ~5Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.5% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (30 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 620 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−16.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)8.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ajinomoto Co. Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AJI
Frequently asked questions
Is Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €24.15 versus a price of €29.12, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AJI?
Our model-based fair value for Ajinomoto Co. Inc. is €24.15 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €29.12.
What is the quality score of AJI?
Ajinomoto Co. Inc. has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €24.15 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €14.20, optimistic scenario €34.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ajinomoto Co. Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €24.15, about −17% upside versus a price of €29.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €14.20, optimistic scenario €34.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ajinomoto Co. Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +23.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AJI use?
Our models discount Ajinomoto Co. Inc. at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ajinomoto Co. Inc. that is +23.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ajinomoto Co. Inc. grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies +23.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.32 %: that much free cash flow Ajinomoto Co. Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ajinomoto Co. Inc. it is €24.15 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €29.12. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ajinomoto Co. Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, AJI trades above its calculated fair value: price €29.12, fair value €24.15, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AJI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€29.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€24.15). For Ajinomoto Co. Inc. the two are €4.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ajinomoto Co. Inc. worth?
The market values Ajinomoto Co. Inc. at about €27.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €29.12; our models calculate a fair value of €24.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AJI?
Our models span a range for Ajinomoto Co. Inc.: cautious scenario €14.20, base €24.15, optimistic €34.79 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €29.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AJI?
The PEG ratio of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. is 2.74 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (as of Sep 27, 2026): debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AJI from its 52-week high?
Ajinomoto Co. Inc. trades at €29.12, about 6% below its 52-week high of €30.91 and 65% above the low of €17.67 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €24.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ajinomoto Co. Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ajinomoto Co. Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €29.12, calculated fair value €24.15 (−17%), Quality Score 73/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AJI calculated?
We run Ajinomoto Co. Inc. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €24.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ajinomoto Co. Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €29.12. Our model-based fair value is €24.15, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ajinomoto Co. Inc. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range (€14.20 to €34.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Ajinomoto Co. Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI)?
The market capitalisation of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. is €27.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the net margin of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI)?
The net margin of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. is 8.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much net debt does Ajinomoto Co. Inc. (AJI) carry?
The net debt of Ajinomoto Co. Inc. is ¥315B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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