Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ajinomoto Co. Inc $15.39, price $32.90, upside -53.2%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.72 – $39.38 · fair‑value band $9.20 – $21.92 · the $32.90 price screens above the $15.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Ajinomoto Co., Inc. engages in the seasonings and foods, frozen foods, and healthcare and other businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Seasonings and Foods; Frozen Foods; and Healthcare, etc.
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Ajinomoto Co., Inc. engages in the seasonings and foods, frozen foods, and healthcare and other businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Seasonings and Foods; Frozen Foods; and Healthcare, etc. The Seasonings and Foods segment offers sauces and seasoning products under the AJI-NO-MOTO, HON-DASHI, Cook Do, Ajinomoto KK Consommé, Pure Select Mayonnaise, Ros Dee, Masako, Aji-ngon, Sazón, Sajiku, and CRISPY FRY names. This segment also provides instant noodles under the Knorr Cup Soup and YumYum names; coffee beverages under the Birdy and Blendy brands; powdered drink under the Birdy 3in1 name; MAXIM brand products; A Little Luxury Coffee Shop brand products and various gifts, office drinks, cup vending machines, and tea dispensers, etc. The Frozen Foods segment offers Gyoza dumplings, rice dishes, noodles, sweets, shumai, processed chicken, and other products. The Healthcare, etc segment provides amino acids for applications in various industries, such as pharmaceuticals and foods; contract development and manufacturing services for pharmaceutical intermediates and active ingredients, and sterile preparations. This segment also offers Ajinomoto Build-up Film, an interlayer insulating material for semiconductor packages; functional materials under the Plainset names; AFTINNOVA, such as activated carbon, release paper, etc.; feed amino acids, sports nutrition under the brand Aminovital, personal care materials under the brand Amisoft, amino acid-based makeup oil under the brand Eldew, and powder under the brand Amihope, medical foods, and agricultural services, etc. Ajinomoto Co., Inc. was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF) currently trades at $32.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.39, 53.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $15.87 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $32.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.42, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.20 (bear) to $21.92 (bull), the price of $32.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ajinomoto Co. Inc reported revenue of ¥1.6T in FY2026 versus ¥1.1T in FY2022, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥135B in FY2026, compounding +15.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $31.5B · P/E ratio 38.3 · P/S ratio 3.25 · EPS (TTM) $0.8600 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 8.5% · Return on equity 17.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −53%, AJINF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.20Fair Value $15.39Bull $21.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 12%
2026 sits 65% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.5%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.0% a year for the price and +3.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (52 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 620 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−16.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)14.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.39 versus a price of $32.90, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AJINF?
Our model-based fair value for Ajinomoto Co. Inc is $15.39 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $32.90.
What is the quality score of AJINF?
Ajinomoto Co. Inc has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.39 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.20, optimistic scenario $21.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ajinomoto Co. Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.39, about −53% upside versus a price of $32.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.20, optimistic scenario $21.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
Ajinomoto Co. Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.6T (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Ajinomoto Co. Inc pay a dividend?
Ajinomoto Co. Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ajinomoto Co. Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +20.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AJINF use?
Our models discount Ajinomoto Co. Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ajinomoto Co. Inc that is +20.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ajinomoto Co. Inc grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies +20.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ajinomoto Co. Inc (+20.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.31 %: that much free cash flow Ajinomoto Co. Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ajinomoto Co. Inc it is $15.39 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $32.90. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ajinomoto Co. Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, AJINF trades above its calculated fair value: price $32.90, fair value $15.39, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AJINF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($32.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.39). For Ajinomoto Co. Inc the two are $17.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ajinomoto Co. Inc worth?
The market values Ajinomoto Co. Inc at about $31.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $32.90; our models calculate a fair value of $15.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AJINF?
Our models span a range for Ajinomoto Co. Inc: cautious scenario $9.20, base $15.39, optimistic $21.92 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $32.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AJINF?
Ajinomoto Co. Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.3 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.8, P/B 6.3, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 18.4.
What is the PEG ratio of AJINF?
The PEG ratio of Ajinomoto Co. Inc is 3.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ajinomoto Co. Inc (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 17.5%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AJINF from its 52-week high?
Ajinomoto Co. Inc trades at $32.90, about 16% below its 52-week high of $39.38 and 57% above the low of $20.89 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ajinomoto Co. Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ajinomoto Co. Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $32.90, calculated fair value $15.39 (−53%), Quality Score 73/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AJINF calculated?
We run Ajinomoto Co. Inc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ajinomoto Co. Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $32.90. Our model-based fair value is $15.39, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ajinomoto Co. Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($9.20 to $21.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ajinomoto Co. Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
The market capitalisation of Ajinomoto Co. Inc is $31.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ajinomoto Co. Inc is 3.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
Earnings per share at Ajinomoto Co. Inc are $0.8600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
The dividend yield of Ajinomoto Co. Inc is 1.1% (payout 42.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
The net margin of Ajinomoto Co. Inc is 8.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ajinomoto Co. Inc is 17.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ajinomoto Co. Inc is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
The operating margin of Ajinomoto Co. Inc is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
Revenue at Ajinomoto Co. Inc is growing +10.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF)?
Earnings per share at Ajinomoto Co. Inc are growing +23.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ajinomoto Co. Inc (AJINF) carry?
The net debt of Ajinomoto Co. Inc is ¥315B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026