Akebia Therapeutics, Inc (AKBA) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $274M

Below-average quality, screening 15% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.9690). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Our model range runs from $0.9690 (bear) to $1.28 (bull), base $1.05. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 45/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.2500 – $4.20 · fair‑value band $0.9690 – $1.28 · the $0.9099 price screens below the $1.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc (AKBA) currently trades at $0.9099, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.05, implying the stock looks roughly 14.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Akebia Therapeutics, Inc generated revenue of $232M at a net margin of -8.8%. Revenue declined 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -79.0%. Net debt stands at $31.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.9690 (bear case) to $1.28 (bull case); at $0.9099, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at 15%, AKBA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($4.11) versus Asset-Based ($0.0800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases.

Full company description

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases. Its product portfolio includes Vafseo (vadadustat), an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase, for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dialysis-dependent (DD) and non-dialysis dependent (NDD) patients; and Auryxia, a ferric citrate that is used to control the serum phosphorus levels in adult patients with DD-CKD and the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in adult patients with NDD-CKD. The company is also developing AKB-9090, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial for treating cardiac surgery-related acute kidney injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome; and AKB-10108 for the treatment of retinopathy of prematurity in neonates. The company has license and collaboration agreements with Tanabe Pharma Corporation for the development and commercialization of Vafseo in Japan and other Asian countries; Vafseo License and Collaboration Agreements; CSL Vifor Agreements; Averoa License Agreement; License Agreement with Panion & BF Biotech, Inc.; Cyclerion Therapeutics License Agreement; and Q32 Asset Purchase Agreement. Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $236M in FY2025 versus $214M in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$5.3M in FY2025.

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Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Akebia Therapeutics Reports Inducement Grants Under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5635(c)(4) GlobeNewswire · Jul 2, 2026
• Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) Strengthens Vafseo Patent Protection Through 2036 Yahoo Finance · Jun 30, 2026
• Akebia outlines Phase II FSGS study of up to ~60 patients as Vafseo reaches nearly 7,500 patients Seeking Alpha · May 7, 2026
• Akebia plunges 20% on muted Q1 print Seeking Alpha · May 7, 2026

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 623 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.