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Akebia Ther (AKBA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Akebia Ther $0.85, price $0.93, upside -9.3%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US00972D1054

AT Akebia Ther logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Akebia Ther

AKBA · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $0.8459 · Overvalued (−9%)
!Quality 45/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -8.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 21 out of 100
!Weak on balance sheet: 26 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$4.20 $0.2500 Fair Value $0.8459 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.2500 – $4.20 · fair‑value band $0.4756 – $1.05 · the $0.9326 price screens above the $0.8459 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases.

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Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases. Its product portfolio includes Vafseo (vadadustat), an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase, for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dialysis-dependent (DD) and non-dialysis dependent (NDD) patients; and Auryxia, a ferric citrate that is used to control the serum phosphorus levels in adult patients with DD-CKD and the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in adult patients with NDD-CKD. The company is also developing AKB-9090, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial for treating cardiac surgery-related acute kidney injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome; and AKB-10108 for the treatment of retinopathy of prematurity in neonates. The company has license and collaboration agreements with Tanabe Pharma Corporation for the development and commercialization of Vafseo in Japan and other Asian countries; Vafseo License and Collaboration Agreements; CSL Vifor Agreements; Averoa License Agreement; License Agreement with Panion & BF Biotech, Inc.; Cyclerion Therapeutics License Agreement; and Q32 Asset Purchase Agreement. Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Akebia Ther (AKBA) currently trades at $0.9326, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8459, implying the stock looks roughly 10.3% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $5.90 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the $0.9326 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.15, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.4756 (bear) to $1.05 (bull), the price of $0.9326 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Akebia Ther reported revenue of $236M in FY2025 versus $214M in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$5.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $274M · P/S ratio 1.18 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0800 · Net margin −2.3% · Return on equity −79.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −21.7% · Operating margin −2.8% · Revenue (TTM) $232M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −9%, AKBA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.4756 Fair Value $0.8459 Bull $1.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $4.36 $5.90 $10.41 74
Growth DCF $4.11 $6.33 $9.79 73
5Y Revenue Exit $3.16 $4.69 $7.88 67
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.36 $5.90 $10.41 74
5Y Revenue Exit $3.16 $4.69 $7.88 67
10Y Revenue Exit $3.53 $6.18 $7.59 63
Multiples
EV/Revenue $2.36 $3.15 $3.94 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.0600 $0.0800 $0.1200 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.11 $6.33 $9.79 73
Rev-Margin DCF $3.41 $5.30 $9.28 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 99
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 20/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+47.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+69.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−85.5% (2019) → −31.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−33.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−17.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −35.2% a year for the price and −18.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−12.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−22.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)−19.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)−16.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)−13.4%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 631 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside −9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.48× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/B 8.39× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 1.18× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 4.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 11.3× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)21 · sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)26 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 32

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK €133.15 €108.70 −18%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK $18.95 $11.29 −40%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥45.58 ¥50.14 +10%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,865 ₹1,979 +6%
Galderma Group GALD CHF 163.80 CHF 109.88 −33%
Haleon plc HLN $9.25 $8.50 −8%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA $39.52 $20.75 −47%
Sandoz Group SDZ CHF 70.76 CHF 40.16 −43%
Zoetis Inc ZTS $72.86 $108.48 +49%
Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692 HK$35.34 HK$38.87 +10%

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Akebia Ther · Fair Value
$0.8459 −10%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Akebia Ther Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AKBA

Frequently asked questions

Is Akebia Ther (AKBA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8459 versus a price of $0.9326, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AKBA?
Our model-based fair value for Akebia Ther is $0.8459 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.9326.
What is the quality score of AKBA?
Akebia Ther has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8459 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4756, optimistic scenario $1.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Akebia Ther stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8459, about −9% upside versus a price of $0.9326 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.4756, optimistic scenario $1.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
Akebia Ther reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $232M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Akebia Ther would have to grow free cash flow by -33.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AKBA use?
Our models discount Akebia Ther at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Akebia Ther that is -33.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Akebia Ther (AKBA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Akebia Ther grew -4.4 % a year. The price currently implies -33.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Akebia Ther (AKBA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Akebia Ther (-33.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.35 %: that much free cash flow Akebia Ther produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Akebia Ther it is $0.8459 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.9326. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Akebia Ther stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AKBA trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.9326, fair value $0.8459, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AKBA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.9326); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8459). For Akebia Ther the two are $0.0867 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Akebia Ther worth?
The market values Akebia Ther at about $274M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.9326; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8459 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AKBA?
Our models span a range for Akebia Ther: cautious scenario $0.4756, base $0.8459, optimistic $1.05 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.9326). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Akebia Ther (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −79.0%, debt of 1.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AKBA from its 52-week high?
Akebia Ther trades at $0.9326, about 71% below its 52-week high of $3.17 and 10% above the low of $0.8440 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8459 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Akebia Ther?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Akebia Ther stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.9326, calculated fair value $0.8459 (−9%), Quality Score 45/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AKBA calculated?
We run Akebia Ther through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8459, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Akebia Ther itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $0.9326. Our model-based fair value is $0.8459, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Akebia Ther right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($0.4756 to $1.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Akebia Ther

How large is the market capitalisation of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
The market capitalisation of Akebia Ther is $274M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Akebia Ther is 1.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
Earnings per share at Akebia Ther are $−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
The net margin of Akebia Ther is −2.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Akebia Ther is −79.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Akebia Ther is −21.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
The operating margin of Akebia Ther is −2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Akebia Ther (AKBA)?
Revenue at Akebia Ther is growing −6.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Akebia Ther (AKBA) carry?
The net debt of Akebia Ther is $31.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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